2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey


The 2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 15 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
New Jersey was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 6.7% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered it as a state Kerry would win, or a blue state. Although due to the impact of the September 11, 2001 attacks and the resignation amidst scandal of Governor James McGreevey, the state was considered an interesting race. Polls showed Senator John F. Kerry with a slim lead throughout the campaign and the Republicans invested some campaign funds in the state. In the end, however, Kerry took New Jersey by a comfortable margin. To date this is the last time the Democratic margin of victory was less than 10%., this is the last election in which the Republican candidate won Somerset County.

Primaries

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.
  1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Democrat
  2. Associated Press: Solid Kerry
  3. CNN: Kerry
  4. Cook Political Report: Likely Democrat
  5. Newsweek: Leans Kerry
  6. The New York Times: Leans Kerry
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Kerry
  8. Research 2000: Solid Kerry
  9. The Washington Post: Kerry
  10. Washington Times: Solid Kerry
  11. Zogby International: Kerry
  12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

    Polling

Kerry won most of the pre-election polls taken in this state, but mostly by small margins. The final 3 polling average showed the Democratic leading 49% to 42%.

Fundraising

Bush raised $5,934,011. Kerry raised $6,513,274.

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign.

Analysis

Generally, Kerry was very dominant in the urban centers of the state, particularly in Essex, Hudson, and Camden Counties. However, Bush made inroads in Bergen County, where many wealthy residents reside, and in other South Jersey counties. Bush controlled largely rural parts of the state, such as the Northwest and Salem County. Monmouth County's wealthy population and Ocean and Cape May Counties' older population also contributed to Bush's relative success in this largely Democratic state. This would also be the first election since fellow Democrat John F. Kennedy from Massachusetts did so in 1960, when a Northern Democrat won the state of New Jersey. The previous three Democratic presidential candidates to carry the state were all from the South, even though New Jersey is a northern state.

Results

Results breakdown

By county

CountyKerry %Kerry #Bush %Bush #Others %Others #
Atlantic52.5%55,74646.6%49,4870.9%864
Bergen51.9%207,66647.4%189,8330.7%2,745
Burlington53.1%110,41146.1%95,9360.8%1,609
Camden62.4%137,76536.9%81,4270.7%1,741
Cape May42.3%21,47556.8%28,8320.9%455
Cumberland52.4%27,87545.8%24,3621.8%948
Essex70.4%203,68128.8%83,3740.8%2,293
Gloucester52.2%66,83546.9%60,0330.9%1,096
Hudson67.3%127,44732.0%60,6460.7%1,353
Hunterdon39.1%26,05059.8%39,8881.1%742
Mercer61.3%91,58037.9%56,6040.8%1,326
Middlesex56.3%166,62842.8%126,4920.9%2,685
Monmouth44.6%133,77354.6%163,6500.8%2,516
Morris41.7%98,06657.5%135,2410.8%1,847
Ocean39.0%99,83960.2%154,2040.8%2,263
Passaic55.4%94,96243.9%75,2000.7%1,149
Salem46.2%13,74952.8%15,7211.0%311
Somerset47.4%66,47651.7%72,5080.9%1,295
Sussex34.6%23,99064.1%44,5061.3%900
Union58.7%119,37240.6%82,5170.7%1,498
Warren37.4%18,04461.3%29,5421.3%622

By congressional district

Kerry won 7 of 13 congressional districts.
DistrictBushKerryRepresentative
39%61%Rob Andrews
50%49%Frank LoBiondo
51%49%H. James Saxton
56%44%Chris Smith
57%43%Scott Garrett
43%57%Frank Pallone, Jr.
53%47%Mike Ferguson
41%59%Bill Pascrell
41%59%Steve Rothman
18%82%Donald Payne
58%42%Rodney Frelinghuysen
46%54%Rush D. Holt, Jr.
31%69%Bob Menendez

Electors

Technically the voters of NJ cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. NJ is allocated 15 electors because it has 13 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 15 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 15 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 15 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.
  1. Warren Wallace
  2. Wilfredo Caraballo
  3. Tom Canzanella
  4. Carolyn Walch
  5. Peggy Anastos
  6. Bernard Kenny
  7. Ronald Rice
  8. Abed Awad
  9. Jack McGreevey -
  10. Wendy Benchle
  11. Loni Kaplan
  12. Carolyn Wade
  13. Riletta L. Cream
  14. Bernadette McPherson
  15. Upendra Chivukula