There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.
D.C. Political Report: Slight Democratic
Associated Press: Toss-up
CNN: Kerry
Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic
Newsweek: Lean Kerry
New York Times: Lean Kerry
Rasmussen Reports: Kerry
Research 2000: Solid Kerry
Washington Post: Toss-up
Washington Times: Battleground
Zogby International: Kerry
Washington Dispatch: Kerry
Polling
Kerry won most pre-election polling. The final 3 poll average had Kerry leading 50% to 45% for Bush.
Fundraising
Bush raised $1,497,451. Kerry raised $1,937,916.
Advertising and visits
In the week of September 28, both tickets combined spent an estimated $546,000 on advertising. However, both tickets spent less and less money each week. Bush visited here 2 times. Kerry visited here 3 times. Both tickets visited the western part of the state.
Analysis
After the 2000 election, which saw a really close race, Oregon was largely considered a potential Republican target. However, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry won 51% of Oregon's vote, narrowly defeating Republican incumbent George W. Bush. The rural and highly conservative eastern interior and Southern Oregon favored Bush, but Kerry's strong support in the more urban Willamette Valley allowed him to win the state. About 68% of the voting age population came out to vote.
Technically the voters of Oregon cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Oregon is allocated 7 electors because it has 5 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 7 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 7 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector. The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols. The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All seven were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.
