There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.
D.C. Political Report: Solid Republican
Associated Press: Solid Bush
CNN: Bush
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Newsweek: Solid Bush
New York Times: Solid Bush
Rasmussen Reports: Bush
Research 2000: Solid Bush
Washington Post: Bush
Washington Times: Solid Bush
Zogby International: Bush
Washington Dispatch: Bush
Polling
Bush won every single pre-election poll, and won each with at least 55% of the vote and a double-digit margin of victory. The final 3 polls averaged Bush leading 59% to 37%.
Fundraising
Bush raised $23,776,943. Kerry raised $5,554,831.
Advertising and visits
Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election.
Analysis
Texas, located in the South, has become a consistently Republican state at all levels. Economically and racially diverse, Texas includes a huge swath of the Bible Belt where many voters, especially those in rural Texas, identify as born-again or evangelical Christians and therefore tend to vote Republican due to the party's opposition to abortion. Although once part of the Solid South, the last time Texas voted for a Democratic presidential nominee was Jimmy Carter in 1976. George Bush achieved his party's best result in Texas since Ronald Reagan's second landslide in 1984. President Bush carried 236 of the state's 254 counties, improving on his performance from 2000. East Texas, historically the most Democratic region in the state, also swung more towards the Republican Party. South Texas, while still losing the region heavily to Senator Kerry, swung towards Bush as well. The only regions to swing in Kerry's favor were parts of Metro Houston, the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex, and the Austin area. Out of the three regions, only Travis County in the Austin area flipped back into the Democratic column due to the city's strong liberal leanings and opposition to the Iraq War. Although Bush carried Dallas County by a narrow margin of 50% to Kerry's 49%, the city of Dallas proper voted heavily for Kerry, winning 57% of the vote.
Technically the voters of Texas cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Texas is allocated 34 electors because it has 32 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 34 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 34 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector. The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols. The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 34 were pledged to Bush/Cheney:
