2004 United States presidential election in Virginia


The 2004 United States presidential election in Virginia took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 13 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
Virginia was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by an 8.20% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. The state had voted for the Republican candidate in all presidential elections since 1952 except during 1964's Democratic landslide. This pattern continued in 2004, although it would be broken four years later by the Democratic victory in 2008.
, the 2004 election is the last time that Virginia has voted Republican. Barack Obama would go on to win the state in both 2008 and 2012, and Hillary Clinton was victorious in the state against Donald Trump in 2016. This is also the last time that Virginia voted for the same candidate as neighboring West Virginia., This was the last time Buchanan County and Dickenson County would vote Democratic for president. This was also the last time Loudoun County, Prince William County, Henrico County, and the independent Cities of Winchester, Radford, Staunton, Harrisonburg, Manassas, Suffolk, Hopewell, and Manassas Park would vote Republican for president.

Primaries

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.
  1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Republican
  2. Associated Press: Leans Bush
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
  5. Newsweek: Lean Bush
  6. New York Times: Lean Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
  8. Research 2000: Solid Bush
  9. Washington Post: Bush
  10. Washington Times: Solid Bush
  11. Zogby International: Bush
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

    Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll. The final 3 poll average showed Bush leading 50% to 46%.

Fundraising

Bush raised $8,594,386. Kerry raised $6,125,128.

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election.

Analysis

In the last century Virginia has shifted from a largely rural, politically Southern and conservative state to a more urbanized, pluralistic, and politically moderate environment. Up until the 1970s, Virginia was a racially divided one-party state dominated by the Byrd Organization. African Americans were effectively disfranchised until after passage of civil rights legislation in the mid-1960s. Enfranchisement and immigration of other groups, especially Hispanics, have placed growing importance on minority voting. Regional differences play a large part in Virginia politics. Rural southern and western areas moved to support the Republican Party in response to its "southern strategy", while urban and growing suburban areas, including Northern Virginia, form the Democratic Party base. Democratic support also persists in union-influenced parts of Southwest Virginia, college towns such as Charlottesville and Blacksburg, and the southeastern region.

Results

Results breakdown

By county

These results combine counties and independent cities in Virginia.
County or CityKerry %Kerry #Bush %Bush #Other %Other #
Accomack41.3%5,51857.8%7,7260.8%112
Albemarle50.5%22,08848.5%21,1891.0%449
Alleghany44.5%3,20355.1%3,9620.4%30
Amelia34.5%1,86264.8%3,4990.7%36
Amherst38.3%4,86661.1%7,7580.6%71
Appomattox32.9%2,19165.6%4,3661.5%98
Arlington67.6%63,98731.3%29,6351.1%1,028
Augusta23.6%7,01974.4%22,1002.0%585
Bath36.3%82862.8%1,4321.0%22
Bedford29.0%9,10269.8%21,9251.2%377
Bland29.5%84668.5%1,9622.0%57
Botetourt30.4%4,80168.8%10,8650.8%131
Brunswick58.6%4,06241.2%2,8520.2%12
Buchanan53.7%5,27545.9%4,5070.5%47
Buckingham46.3%2,78952.8%3,1850.9%53
Campbell29.8%6,86269.1%15,8911.1%244
Caroline49.0%4,87850.2%4,9990.8%77
Carroll32.1%3,88867.4%8,1730.6%67
Charles City62.7%2,15536.5%1,2540.9%30
Charlotte40.9%2,22358.2%3,1660.9%49
Chesterfield36.9%49,34662.6%83,7450.5%723
Clarke41.5%2,69957.5%3,7411.0%65
Craig34.4%90165.1%1,7060.5%14
Culpeper35.1%5,47664.2%10,0260.7%103
Cumberland41.7%1,72157.6%2,3770.7%28
Dickenson50.8%3,76148.5%3,5910.7%54
Dinwiddie42.2%4,56957.1%6,1930.7%77
Essex46.2%2,00753.0%2,3040.8%33
Fairfax53.2%245,67145.9%211,9800.8%3,728
Fauquier35.8%10,71263.6%19,0110.6%192
Floyd36.9%2,48861.8%4,1621.2%84
Fluvanna40.3%4,41558.9%6,4580.8%84
Franklin36.0%8,00263.2%14,0480.8%173
Frederick31.0%8,85367.9%19,3861.1%301
Giles40.6%3,04757.6%4,3201.7%131
Gloucester31.3%5,10567.9%11,0840.9%144
Goochland34.7%3,58364.5%6,6680.8%87
Grayson34.0%2,43065.2%4,6550.7%52
Greene32.3%2,24065.9%4,5701.9%129
Greensville59.0%2,51440.7%1,7320.3%12
Halifax42.4%6,22057.1%8,3630.5%73
Hanover28.1%13,94171.4%35,4040.5%266
Henrico45.6%60,86453.8%71,8090.6%745
Henry42.0%9,85156.9%13,3581.1%249
Highland34.3%52264.6%9821.1%16
Isle of Wight37.0%5,87162.6%9,9290.4%71
James City38.4%11,93460.9%18,9490.7%207
King and Queen45.8%1,50652.9%1,7371.3%43
King George34.6%2,73964.7%5,1240.7%58
King William35.4%2,43664.0%4,3970.6%39
Lancaster39.8%2,47759.8%3,7240.5%29
Lee41.0%4,00558.0%5,6641.0%101
Loudoun43.6%47,27155.7%60,3820.7%777
Louisa40.2%4,84458.9%7,0830.9%108
Lunenburg45.0%2,36254.5%2,8580.5%25
Madison37.7%2,17661.6%3,5560.7%40
Mathews31.0%1,58968.2%3,4970.8%43
Mecklenburg41.4%5,29357.3%7,3191.3%168
Middlesex35.6%1,91462.0%3,3362.4%127
Montgomery44.8%14,12854.2%17,0701.0%317
Nelson49.6%3,54349.6%3,5390.8%57
New Kent30.7%2,44368.1%5,4141.1%89
Northampton50.5%2,77548.5%2,6691.0%55
Northumberland39.8%2,54859.8%3,8320.5%29
Nottoway43.7%2,63554.8%3,3031.5%92
Orange38.8%5,01559.9%7,7491.3%164
Page34.6%3,32464.8%6,2210.6%58
Patrick31.3%2,57267.0%5,5071.7%136
Pittsylvania33.8%9,27464.5%17,6731.7%470
Powhatan25.6%3,11273.6%8,9550.8%96
Prince Edward49.6%3,63248.8%3,5711.5%113
Prince George38.2%5,06661.3%8,1310.4%57
Prince William46.4%61,27152.8%69,7760.8%1,016
Pulaski37.3%5,31061.5%8,7691.2%172
Rappahannock45.4%1,83753.6%2,1721.0%41
Richmond37.0%1,24361.9%2,0821.1%36
Roanoke34.2%16,08265.1%30,5960.6%295
Rockbridge39.5%3,62758.9%5,4121.5%142
Rockingham24.9%7,27374.4%21,7370.7%206
Russell45.2%5,16753.2%6,0771.6%179
Scott33.4%3,32465.0%6,4791.6%164
Shenandoah30.2%5,18668.9%11,8200.8%140
Smyth33.6%4,14364.2%7,9062.2%270
Southampton45.8%3,43153.6%4,0180.6%43
Spotsylvania36.6%16,62362.8%28,5270.6%295
Stafford37.4%17,20862.0%28,5000.6%278
Surry55.5%1,95443.8%1,5430.7%25
Sussex55.7%2,42043.5%1,8900.8%35
Tazewell41.1%7,18457.4%10,0391.5%257
Warren37.3%5,24161.1%8,6001.6%227
Washington32.6%7,33965.5%14,7491.9%426
Westmoreland49.2%3,37050.1%3,4330.7%45
Wise40.5%5,80258.2%8,3301.3%180
Wythe31.0%3,58168.5%7,9110.5%62
York34.4%10,27664.9%19,3960.7%208
Alexandria66.8%41,11632.3%19,8440.9%555
Bedford41.0%1,04257.9%1,4721.1%28
Bristol35.7%2,40063.6%4,2750.7%49
Buena Vista39.2%93659.3%1,4171.5%36
Charlottesville71.8%11,08827.0%4,1721.2%190
Chesapeake42.3%38,74457.1%52,2830.6%514
Colonial Heights25.0%2,06174.5%6,1290.5%41
Covington51.2%1,17948.0%1,1040.8%18
Danville49.4%9,43649.2%9,3991.4%277
Emporia56.1%1,24743.7%9700.2%4
Fairfax51.2%5,39547.8%5,0451.0%106
Falls Church64.7%3,94434.0%2,0741.3%80
Franklin54.0%1,91045.6%1,6130.4%13
Fredericksburg54.2%4,08544.9%3,3900.9%67
Galax42.3%98757.2%1,3360.5%12
Hampton57.4%32,01642.0%23,3990.6%326
Harrisonburg42.8%4,72655.9%6,1651.3%139
Hopewell45.0%3,57353.6%4,2511.4%112
Lexington57.0%1,34041.8%9821.1%27
Lynchburg44.5%11,72754.7%14,4000.8%213
Manassas43.1%5,56256.2%7,2570.7%84
Manassas Park45.0%1,49854.2%1,8070.8%27
Martinsville54.2%3,03645.3%2,5380.5%29
Newport News52.0%35,31947.4%32,2080.6%425
Norfolk61.7%43,51837.4%26,4010.9%651
Norton48.2%72551.1%7680.7%11
Petersburg81.0%9,68218.7%2,2380.2%29
Poquoson22.0%1,42477.2%5,0040.8%52
Portsmouth61.0%24,11238.5%15,2120.5%210
Radford46.3%2,24452.9%2,5640.8%37
Richmond70.2%52,16729.1%21,6370.7%521
Roanoke52.4%18,86246.3%16,6611.3%477
Salem37.0%4,25462.0%7,1151.0%115
Staunton39.0%3,75660.3%5,8050.7%68
Suffolk47.3%15,23352.1%16,7630.6%193
Virginia Beach40.2%70,66659.1%103,7520.7%1,269
Waynesboro35.1%2,79263.9%5,0921.0%79
Williamsburg51.3%2,21647.8%2,0640.9%40
Winchester42.5%3,96756.5%5,2831.0%93

By congressional district

Bush won 9 of 11 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.
DistrictBushKerryRepresentative
60%39%Jo Ann Davis
58%42%Thelma Drake
33%66%Robert C. Scott
57%43%Randy Forbes
56%43%Virgil Goode
63%36%Bob Goodlatte
61%38%Eric Cantor
35%64%Jim Moran
60%39%Rick Boucher
55%44%Frank Wolf
50%49%Thomas M. Davis

Electors

Technically the voters of Virginia cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Virginia is allocated 13 electors because it has 11 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 13 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 13 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 13 were pledged for Bush/Cheney:
  1. Yvonne McGee McCoy
  2. Loretta H. Tate
  3. Theodore C. Brown
  4. Woodrow Harris
  5. Keith C. Drake
  6. Wendell S. Walker
  7. Peter E. Broadbent
  8. Sean Michael Spicer
  9. Lloyd C. Martin
  10. Dorothy L. Simpson
  11. Carlton John Davis
  12. Charles E. Dane
  13. Rebecca Anne Stoeckel