2004 United States presidential election in West Virginia
The 2004 United States presidential election in West Virginia took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 5 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. West Virginia was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 12.86% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 8 of 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state, while others considered it as a swing state. Democrat President Bill Clinton easily won this state in 1992 and 1996, but Bush carried the state in 2000 with just 51.92% of the vote. On election day, President Bush won here with a 6.53% better margin than his performance in 2000, signaling that the state was trending Republican at the presidential level. This was despite the fact that over 50% of the state's population were registered Democrats and both senators were Democrats. This also marked the last election in which West Virginia voted for the same presidential candidate as neighbouring Virginia. Since then, West Virginia would vote for the Republican presidential candidate whilst neighbouring Virginia would vote for the Democratic candidate., this is the last election in which Fayette County, Brooke County, Logan County, and Mingo County voted for the Democratic candidate. Bush was the first Republican president to win re-election nationwide while carrying West Virginia in both elections.
Campaign
Predictions
There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.
D.C. Political Report: Lean Republican
Associated Press: Toss-up
CNN: Bush
Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
Newsweek: Lean Bush
New York Times: Leans Bush
Rasmussen Reports: Bush
Research 2000: Toss-up
Washington Post: Battleground
Washington Times: Battleground
Zogby International: Bush
Washington Dispatch: Bush
Polling
Early on, pre-election polling showed the election as a pure toss up. But after September 14, Bush pulled away and reached 50% or higher in the polls. The final 3 poll average showed Bush leading 50% to 44%.
Fundraising
Bush raised $527,380. Kerry raised $627,425.
Advertising and visits
Bush visited the state 8 times. Kerry visited the state 6 times. A total of between $100,000 to $550,000 was spent each week. As the election went on, both tickets spent less and less here each week.
Analysis
More than any other state, West Virginia highlighted Kerry's trouble in Appalachian America. It swung heavily to the Democrats during the days of Franklin D. Roosevelt and remained reliably Democratic for most of the next 68 years. It often voted for Democrats who went on to big national defeats. This was largely due to its blue-collar, heavily unionized workers, especially coal miners, who favored Democratic economic policy. Starting with Al Gore, however, the state's voters became more concerned with environmental policies advocated by the Democrats, especially regarding coal, which is a large source of jobs in the state. This made them more receptive to Republicans.
Technically the voters of WV cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. WV is allocated 5 electors because it has 3 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 5 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 5 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector. The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols. The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 5 were pledged for Bush/Cheney:
