The Courier reported on 23 January that leaked minutes of a meeting on 11 January at Westminster revealed that "senior Scottish Liberal Democrats do not believe their party has any chance of winning the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election", and that "their aim is to beat the SNP rather than topple Labour". This suggestion was backed up on 27 January by a poll in the Daily Telegraph that put the Lib Dems at 13% UK-wide, their worst position since the 2001 general election. The Sunday Herald reported on 29 January that they had "evidence of a high-level "fix" to select candidate", because "party bosses sent out a leaflet on behalf of Catherine Stihler’s campaign hours before she was selected to fight the seat." This story followed earlier reports of a similar row over the selection of the Conservative and Unionist candidate: Fife Tory leader Stuart Randall’s claim that he was left off the shortlist for being "far too old and middle-aged to fit the bill". Randall, who stood as Conservative candidate against Gordon Brown in Dunfermline East at the 2001 and 2005 general elections and fought Dunfermline East at the 2003 Scottish Parliament election, was aged only 43. Local Conservative activists were reported to be furious that such a high-profile local figure was left off the shortlist of candidates for the by-election. The by-election electorate for the constituency was 72,225, a slight increase on the general election in May 2005.
Implications (on UK and Scottish elections)
The constituency neighbours Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, the seat of Gordon Brown, former Leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister. Brown actually lived in the Dunfermline and West Fife constituency. The constituency is also near to North East Fife, then the constituency of Sir Menzies Campbell, former leader of the Liberal Democrats. Prior to the election it was speculated that a poor showing for either party in the vicinity of Brown and/or Campbell's political bases could impact upon their chances of winning their respective parties' leaderships. The result of this Westminster by-election were seen as a litmus test of the parties' standing prior to the 2007 Scottish Parliament election; the Liberal Democrats proceeded to win the Dunfermline West seat, which comprises the bulk of Dunfermline and West Fife, from Labour in the 2007 Holyrood election. The results of all by-elections in Scotland have been particularly highly valued by psephologists and political commentators since the demise of the last regular, monthly Scottish voting-intention poll at the end of 2003. The result was also notable as it came at a time when Labour's national opinion poll ratings were very high. Immediately after the election the Liberal Democrats claimed that the results showed they were the challengers to the Labour Party and that the Conservatives had failed their first electoral test under their new leader.
