There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:
D.C. Political Report: Republican
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Takeaway: Solid McCain
Electoral-vote.com: Strong Republican
Washington Post: Solid McCain
Politico: Solid McCain
Real Clear Politics: Solid McCain
FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid McCain
CQ Politics: Safe Republican
New York Times: Solid Republican
CNN: Safe Republican
NPR: Solid McCain
MSNBC: Solid McCain
Fox News: Republican
Associated Press: Republican
Rasmussen Reports: Safe Republican
Polling
s consistently showed John McCain to be leading Barack Obama. From April until August they showed John McCain with a slim lead, with one poll taken in early August showing Obama five points ahead. However, from when Sarah Palin was announced as McCain's running mate on August 29, polls showed John McCain consistently ahead. RealClearPolitics gave the state an average of 55.8% for McCain, compared to 41.3% for Obama.
Fundraising
Barack Obama raised $977,438. John McCain raised $321,101.
Advertising and visits
Obama spent $134,686. McCain and his interest groups spent just $1,836. The Democratic ticket didn't visit the state. Alaskan native Sarah Palin campaigned just once in the state during the fall election.
Analysis
At the time of the election, Alaska had a Republican Governor and Lieutenant Governor and was represented in both the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives solely by Republicans. At the time of the election, Republicans held a majority in the Alaska House of Representatives whereas a coalition of Democrats and moderate Republicans controlled the Alaska Senate. Furthermore, since becoming a state in 1959, Alaska has voted for the Republican nominee in every presidential election with the exception of 1964 when the Last Frontier voted for president Lyndon B. Johnson in his 44-state landslide. Early in the campaign, Obama actually bought some advertising in Alaska, apparently thinking that LibertarianBob Barr could hold down McCain's numbers; Alaska has a history of supporting third-party candidates. Also, several polls in the early summer of 2008 showed the race within single digits. While McCain would have been favored to win Alaska in any event, Palin's addition to the ticket ended any realistic chance of Obama carrying it. At the time, Palin was one of the most popular governors in the nation. At the same time, Representative Young was reelected to an 18th term by a narrow margin over Democrat Ethan Berkowitz in a highly contested U.S. House race--only the fifth time he had faced a close contest. Stevens, who was convicted earlier in the year on seven felony charges, was narrowly ousted by Begich. In the state legislature, Democrats picked up one seat in the State House and two members of the Coalition broke away and went back to their respective parties.
Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district is called an at-large district because it covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.
District
McCain
Obama
Representative
At-large
59.4%
37.9%
Don Young
Electors
Technically the voters of Alaska cast their ballots for electors--representatives to the Electoral College. Alaska is allocated 3 electors because it has 1 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 3 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 3 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector. The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitals. The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 3 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin: