2010 Toronto mayoral election
The 2010 Toronto mayoral election was held on October 25, 2010, to elect a mayor of the city of Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The mayor's seat was open for the first time since the 2003 Toronto election due to the announcement by incumbent mayor David Miller that he would not seek a third term in office. The nomination period for the 2010 municipal election opened on January 4, 2010, and closed on September 10, 2010. The result of the election was a victory for former city councillor Rob Ford. He received 47% of the vote.
Campaign
In the 2006 Toronto election, David Miller was easily reelected as mayor, winning 57% of the vote and leading in 42 of the city's 44 wards. On September 25, 2009, Miller announced that he would not be running for re-election. Prior to Miller's announcement important figures had already been contemplating mayoral bids, most notably Deputy Premier George Smitherman and former mayoral candidate and Progressive Conservative leader John Tory. Miller's withdrawal created an open race and the possibility of a wide field of candidates contesting the position. While there was speculation that Tory and Smitherman would both be contesting the race, Tory announced in January that he would not be a candidate. Tory's 2003 campaign manager and Liberal fundraiser Rocco Rossi announced he was running on December 14, 2009. Smitherman announced on November 8 that he was resigning from the provincial cabinet in order to run for mayor. They were joined in the campaign by right-wing councillors Giorgio Mammoliti and Rob Ford.The left was initially split between two high-profile candidates: Deputy Mayor Joe Pantalone and TTC chair Adam Giambrone. Giambrone formally launched his campaign on February 1, 2010, but ended as sex scandal caused him to withdraw on February 10, 2010.
According to Ford campaign organizer Richard Ciano, the campaign disregarded "the conventional wisdom conservatives don't win in Toronto". The campaign rejected the conventional strategy of focussing on specific areas. The campaign bypassed traditional media outlets and used telephone town hall events to call some 40,000 homes simultaneously and invite respondents to a talk-radio-style event hosted by Ford. This created grassroots momentum and facilitated small donations and grew the campaign's database.
Ford campaigned on ending wasteful spending at City Hall and campaign slogans such as "Stop the Gravy Train" and "respect for taxpayers" resonated with the public. His campaign's extensive internal polls showed that wasteful spending at City Hall was one of the biggest concerns among voters, although that "seemed to be the last thing any of the other candidates were talking about". Ford also pledged to do away with the city's century-old fair-wage policy, which required that private contractors be paid the same as union employees. It was said that Ford successfully tapped into recession-weary "ordinary" people who comprise the bulk of the population of Toronto, who were angry at perceived financial mismanagement at City Hall and powerful city employee unions with generous benefits and pension plans.
Ford's message of putting taxpayers' interests before that of labour and special interests was also said to have attracted wide support among diverse immigrant communities in the inner-city and suburbs. By contrast, "people knew precisely nothing about what George Smitherman stood for", according to a spokesman for George Smitherman, who was considered Ford's chief opponent.
Smitherman and other political opponents attempted to make an issue of Ford's past controversial statements and incidents. However, these did little to hurt Ford's popularity. A pollster found that "one middle-aged woman explained that she would overlook personality failings in a mayor – as long as he didn't waste her taxes". According to campaign staffers Richard Ciano and Nick Kouvalis, these personal attacks were turned into advantages by the Ford campaign, portraying rivals making these personal attacks as "trying to keep the gravy train going". The barbs directed at Ford generated more donations to his campaign, as did a deliberate lack of sophistication in style. According to Kouvalis "our polling said, don't put him in a $2,000 suit". The revelation of Ford's DUI conviction in Florida, and his subsequent public apology, led to an increase in support for Ford.
In June 2010, Ford and fellow councillors criticized retiring Councillor Kyle Rae for holding a retirement party at the Rosewater Club and billing the $12,000 cost to his office budget. Rae said that unspent campaign funds he was forced to turn over the city more than covered the cost, but critics pointed out that the campaign money was not his to spend. This example was used by Ford as an example of the "gravy train" at City Hall.
On August 17, 2010, the National Post reported that a computer user inside the Toronto Star company made edits to the Wikipedia article about Ford that his campaign considered "very serious libel" and copyright infringement. Bob Hepburn, a Toronto Star spokesman, denied responsibility for the edits. "The Toronto Star owns a couple of these IP portals and they come under Toronto Star Newspapers Limited, which is a broader thing. The Toronto Star itself has a separate portal", said Hepburn.
A Nanos Research poll, published on September 19, 2010, showed Ford doubling his lead from 12% to 24.5% over second-place candidate Smitherman. The Nanos Research Poll asked 1021 "likely voters" from September 14 and 16 with Rob Ford receiving 34.4% of likely voters, Smitherman 16%, Joe Pantalone 12% and undecided voters at 25%. A Global News Ipsos-Reid poll released Monday, September 27 showed Ford's lead diminishing at 28 per cent, with George Smitherman at 23 per cent, Joe Pantalone at 10 per cent, and Rocco Rossi and Sarah Thomson at seven per cent each. On October 22, an EKOS Research Poll found Ford with an 8 per cent lead over second place Smitherman in decided voters; 43.9% to 35.6%.
Ford also criticized Smitherman's previous record as provincial Minister of Health, where Smitherman had been responsible for approving most of the sole-sourced contracts before the scandal of eHealth Ontario erupted. A Ford spokesman said "the voters and the taxpayers of Toronto are going to get a very clear message from this information today that George Smitherman has no fiscal credibility to be mayor of Toronto. He is incapable of handling a budget".
On October 12, the campaign became nasty when signs were posted on University Avenue with the slogan "Wife-beating, racist drunk for mayor!" The anonymous signs were a veiled attack at leading candidate Rob Ford. All the leading candidates declared their disgust about the signs that were quickly removed. George Smitherman was also the subject of attack ads later in October, with a radio ad targeted to the Tamil Canadian community and a poster targeted to Muslim voters both suggesting that the communities had an obligation to support Ford, because he is married to a woman, over Smitherman, who is openly gay and married his partner in 2007.
Spending
Ford spent $1,723,605.77 on his campaign, which exceeded the mayoral campaign spending limit of $1,305,066.65. Smitherman's campaign spent $2.2 million. Campaign rules exclude a wide range of fund-raising expenditures, accounting for the over-spending. At the end of the campaign, the Ford campaign was $639,526.60 in debt, the Thomson campaign was $140,000 in debt and the Rossi campaign was $60,000 in debt, while the Smitherman campaign was debt-free. A special "Harmony" fund-raising dinner was held in January 2011 and the $1 million in proceeds used to pay off the debts. Pantalone's campaign finished $55,000 in debt, and he held his own fund-raiser to cover the debt after he declined to participate in the "Harmony" fund-raiser because of former premier Mike Harris's participation.In April 2011, John Lorinc of The Globe and Mail wrote an article about the Ford campaign finances, noting that $69,722.31 of campaign expenses were paid by Doug Ford Holdings, the Ford family firm. The family firm also paid for a $22,713.04 contract to rent the Toronto Congress Centre for a campaign kickoff event. Both expenses were repaid but the borrowing may have constituted an illegal corporate contribution to the campaign. Activist Adam Chaleff-Freudenthaler and lawyer Max Reed filed a complaint about the Ford campaign's borrowing and over-spending to the City of Toronto Compliance Audit Committee. In May 2011, the committee voted to proceed with an audit of the mayor's campaign finances. Penalties under the Municipal Elections Act range from fines to removal from office. Ford first appealed the decision to audit the campaign, then dropped the appeal in April 2012. The city contracted the firm Froese Forensic Partners to conduct the audit. The audit found that the Ford campaign had overspent by $40,000, but the audit committee decided to not refer the violation to a special prosecutor.
Results
Official results from the City of Toronto as of October 28, 2010.Candidate | Number of votes | % of popular vote |
Rob Ford | 383,501 | 47.114% |
George Smitherman | 289,832 | 35.607% |
Joe Pantalone | 95,482 | 11.730% |
Rocco Rossi | 5,012 | 0.616% |
George Babula | 3,273 | 0.402% |
Rocco Achampong | 2,805 | 0.345% |
Abdullah-Baquie Ghazi | 2,761 | 0.344% |
Michael Alexander | 2,470 | 0.304% |
Vijay Sarma | 2,264 | 0.277% |
Sarah Thomson | 1,883 | 0.232% |
Jaime Castillo | 1,874 | 0.231% |
Dewitt Lee | 1,699 | 0.209% |
Douglas Campbell | 1,428 | 0.176% |
Kevin Clarke | 1,411 | 0.173% |
Joseph Pampena | 1,319 | 0.162% |
David Epstein | 1,202 | 0.148% |
Monowar Hossain | 1,194 | 0.147% |
Michael Flie | 1,190 | 0.146% |
Don Andrews | 1,032 | 0.127% |
Weizhen Tang | 890 | 0.11% |
Daniel Walker | 804 | 0.098% |
Keith Cole | 801 | 0.098% |
Michael Brausewetter | 796 | 0.098% |
Barry Goodhead | 740 | 0.091% |
Charlene Cottle | 735 | 0.09% |
Tibor Steinberger | 733 | 0.09% |
Christopher Ball | 696 | 0.085% |
James Di Fiore | 655 | 0.08% |
Diane Devenyi | 629 | 0.078% |
John Letonja | 592 | 0.073% |
Himy Syed | 582 | 0.071% |
Carmen Macklin | 575 | 0.07% |
Howard Gomberg | 477 | 0.058% |
David Vallance | 444 | 0.055% |
Mark State | 438 | 0.054% |
Phil Taylor | 429 | 0.053% |
Colin Magee | 401 | 0.049% |
Selwyn Firth | 394 | 0.049% |
Ratan Wadhwa | 290 | 0.036% |
Gerald Derome | 251 | 0.031% |
Total | 813,984 | 100% |
Issues
Several issues emerged early in the campaign. Transportation was one issue with debates over cycling and public transit. Bike lanes on streets such as Jarvis Street and University Avenue were one issue. Rocco Rossi was strongly opposed to such bike lanes while Pantalone supported them, Mammoliti endorsed the bike lanes on Jarvis, and Ford stated he would not remove any such installations.The debate over public transit focused on Mayor Miller's Transit City initiative. Rocco Rossi called for a halt to Transit City and instead pushed for more subways in a plan he called "Transit City Plus", and also for the completion of the Allen Expressway in a tunnel along the cancelled Spadina Expressway alignment, to the Gardiner Expressway. Ford had long opposed the Transit City plan. Pantalone supported continuing the Transit City project. Sarah Thomson proposed replacing the planned LRT lines with subways paid for with road tolls. Smitherman had an ambitious transit plan, calling for expansions both to subway lines and to the Transit City plan, though his projected funding sources faced criticism.
Another important issue was how to pay for municipal services. One proposal was to sell city assets. Rossi proposed selling Toronto Hydro. Sarah Thomson called for restructuring TCHC and a line by line review of every department at city hall.
Four mayoral candidates signed a pledge to give faith-based groups a bigger role in municipal government.
Candidates
There were six "major" candidates running who were included by the media in public opinion polls and mayoral debates during the campaign, although by election day only three remained as active contenders: Ward 2 councillor Rob Ford, deputy mayor and Ward 19 councillor Joe Pantalone and former Liberal cabinet minister George Smitherman.Giorgio Mammoliti was also included in debates until his withdrawal from the contest. Magazine editor Sarah Thomson announced on September 28, 2010, that she was ending her campaign, and former Liberal fundraiser Rocco Rossi dropped out of the campaign on October 13, 2010. Due to their late withdrawal, Thomson's and Rossi's names remained on the ballot.
Registered candidates
Candidates listed as registered on the City of Toronto website.Rocco Achampong
- Date registered: January 4
At 18, he drove a getaway car in an armed robbery. He spent a year in jail. He calls the incident the "mistake of his life" and is now a lawyer.
He was one of two candidates, alongside the six "major" candidates and Keith Cole, selected by an online poll to participate in a debate on municipal voting reform sponsored by the civic advocacy group Better Ballots. When Giorgio Mammoliti subsequently withdrew from the race on July 5, 2010, he encouraged the media to give Achampong his former space in the mayoral debates.
Michael Alexander
- Date registered: September 9
- Date registered: January 8
George Babula
- Date registered: January 15
Christopher Ball
- Date registered: July 9
- Date registered: September 9
- Date registered: January 4
James Castillo
- Date registered: February 23
Kevin Clarke
- Date registered: April 30
Keith Cole
- Date registered: February 16
Charlene Cottle
- Date registered: May 20
- Date registered: August 25
- Date registered: September 10
- Date registered: August 10
David Epstein
- Date registered: August 25
Selwyn Firth
- Date registered: January 29
Michael Flie
- Date registered: June 30
Rob Ford
- Endorsements: Councillor Frances Nunziata, Councillor Mike Del Grande, Councillor Giorgio Mammoliti, Councillor Peter Milczyn, Councillor John Parker, Councillor Doug Holyday, former mayoralty candidate Wendell Brereton.
- Date registered: March 25
Abdullah-Baquie Ghazi
- Date registered: January 5
Howard Gomberg
- Date registered: January 15
Barry Goodhead
- Date registered: August 13
Monowar Hossain
- Date registered: January 4
Dewitt Lee
- Date registered: July 14
John Letonja
- Date registered: January 4
Carmen Macklin
- Date registered: August 25
- Date registered: January 6
Jim McMillan
- Date registered: July 19
- Date registered: January 13
Joe Pantalone
- Endorsements: Mayor David Miller, Jack Layton, MP for Toronto-Danforth and NDP leader, Rosario Marchese, MPP for Trinity-Spadina, Councillor Howard Moscoe, Councillor Cesar Palacio, Councillor Gord Perks, Councillor Paula Fletcher, Councillor Sandra Bussin, Councillor Maria Augimeri, Councillor Mark Grimes, Councillor Janet Davis, John Laschinger, Mike Layton, Laborers' International Union of North America Local 506.
- Date registered: January 13
Vijay Sarma
- Date registered: September 2
- Endorsements: Former mayors David Crombie, John Sewell, and Art Eggleton, Sarah Thomson former mayoral candidate, Councillor Pam McConnell, Councillor Joe Mihevc, Councillor Chin Lee, Councillor Adam Vaughan, Bob Rae, Liberal MP for Toronto-Centre and former premier of Ontario, Jeff Bangs, former principal secretary to Ernie Eves; Ralph Lean, Conservative and former fundraising chair for Miller and Tory; Former Ontario Conservative cabinet ministers Isabel Bassett, Dan Newman and Charles Harnick, Conservative Senator Nancy Ruth, Carpenters’ District Council of Ontario
- Date registered: January 8
Mark State
- Date registered: January 4
Tibor Steinberger
- Date registered: June 3
Himy Syed
- Date registered: May 25
Weizhen Tang
- Date registered: September 9
Phil Taylor
- Date registered: July 12
David Vallance
- Date registered: June 10
Ratan Wadhwa
- Date registered: April 6
Daniel Walker
- Date registered: July 6
Candidates who ended their campaigns after the withdrawal deadline
The last date to withdraw from the election was September 10. Candidates who ended their campaigns after that date remained on the ballot.;Rocco Rossi
- Endorsements: Councillor Mike Feldman, Councillor John Parker, Samuel Goldstein, former federal Conservative candidate and former adviser to candidate Sarah Thomson; Rob Sinclair, "Red Tory" and former David Miller campaigner; Andy Pringle, former provincial Conservative candidate and chief of staff to John Tory; John Capobianco; Peter C. Newman; IUOE Local 793; Warren Kinsella.
- Date registered: January 4
- Campaign ended: October 13
;Sarah Thomson
- Endorsements: Former newspaper publisher Conrad Black.
- Date officially registered: January 4
- Campaign ended: September 28
Candidates who withdrew
;Andrew Barton- Date registered: January 11
- Date withdrew: August 19
;Wendell Brereton
- Date registered: February 23
- Date withdrawn: August 4
;Mark Cidade
- Date registered: January 11
- Date withdrawn: July 9
- Date registered: January 4
- Date withdrawn: March 9
- Date registered: February 25
- Date withdrawn: March 25
- Endorsements: John Laschinger, Miller's campaign manager in 2003 and 2006. City councillors Maria Augimeri, Glenn De Baeremaeker and Howard Moscoe.
- Date registered: February 1
- Date withdrawal announced: February 10
- Date withdrawn: March 10
;Naseeb Husain
- Date registered: January 25
- Date withdrawn: March 26
- Date registered: January 4
- Date withdrawn: January 5
- Date registered: January 5
- Date withdrawn: July 9
;Sonny Yeung
- Date registered: January 8
- Date withdrawn: September 10
Candidates who died
;Tom Sullivan- Date registered: February 17
- Died: April 7
Possible candidates who did not run
The following potential candidates ruled themselves out of seeking the mayor's office or failed to indicate interest following media speculation of their potential candidacy:- Shelley Carroll – Don Valley East city councillor, Toronto Budget Chief and Liberal. Considered a Miller supporter. She told the National Post in October that she was "definitely considering” running for mayor. On January 12, she told reporters that she will not be a candidate. However, with the withdrawal of Giambrone from the race she was reportedly reconsidering. She "couldn't be swayed to enter" the mayoral contest and was re-elected as the city councillor for her ward.
- Olivia Chow – Trinity Spadina NDP Member of Parliament and former city councillor from 1991 to 2005. Expressed no interest.
- Michael "Pinball" Clemons – ex-football player and currently vice-chair of the Toronto Argonauts. Neither a Canadian citizen nor a resident of Toronto. Has expressed no interest.
- Doug Holyday – Etobicoke Centre councillor and conservative subject of a "Draft Doug" movement during the garbage strike. Says he is not considering a bid.
- Gerard Kennedy – Liberal Party of Canada MP and former provincial cabinet minister, ruled out a run after rumours with his name surfaced.
- Frances Lankin – president and CEO of United Way Toronto. Former NDP MPP for Beaches—Woodbine and senior cabinet minister in the Bob Rae government. Has expressed no interest in running and is not currently a resident of Toronto as she lives in Restoule, Ontario near North Bay with her husband.
- Jack Layton – leader of the federal New Democratic Party and, formerly, a long-time Toronto city councillor and runner-up in the 1991 mayoralty election. Layton has ruled out returning to municipal politics.
- Glen Murray – former mayor of Winnipeg and federal Liberal candidate, and CEO of the Canadian Urban Institute. Has lived in Toronto since 2004. Ran for, and won, the February 4, 2010 byelection to succeed George Smitherman as MPP for Toronto Centre.
- Peggy Nash – president of the New Democratic Party, Canadian Auto Workers official and former NDP MP for Parkdale—High Park. Nash instead decided to return to federal politics and was re-elected to Parliament in the 2011 federal election.
- Robert Pritchard – former president of the University of Toronto. President of Metrolinx. Has denied having mayoral ambitions.
- Karen Stintz – Eglinton-Lawrence city councillor and leader of the conservative oppositional Responsible Government Group. Dropped out October 19, 2009. Following John Tory's announcement that he will not be a candidate Stintz reaffirmed her decision not to contest the mayoralty.
- Michael Thompson – Scarborough Centre city councillor, conservative, and Miller critic.
- John Tory – runner up to Miller in the 2003 mayoral election, former leader of the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party and afternoon drive time host on CFRB radio. Tory announced on January 7 that he was not running in order to continue his radio show and also become head of the Toronto City Summit Alliance. Tory re-iterated his decision not to run on August 5, 2010, after a week of speculation that he was going to enter the contest. After the election, Ford's staff revealed a targeted campaign involving a fake social media account intended to convince Tory not to run.
- Adam Vaughan – Trinity-Spadina city councillor and former municipal affairs reporter. In the wake of Miller's withdrawal from the campaign, Vaughan told reporters that he won't run for mayor because "I can't get inside the heads of those people who live in the suburbs", and because he wants to be around for his family.
Satirical candidates
Opinion polls
Italics indicate those politicians who ended their campaigns before election day.Polling Firm | Date of Polling | Link | Rob Ford | Joe Pantalone | George Smitherman | Rocco Rossi | Sarah Thomson | Other | Sample Size | % Undecided |
EKOS | 2010-Oct-20 – 2010-Oct-22 | 48.2 | 14.7 | 33.3 | - | - | 3.8 | 275 | 15.1 | |
EKOS | 2010-Oct-13 – 2010-Oct-21 | 43.9 | 15.0 | 35.6 | - | - | 5.5 | 433 | 15.9 | |
Toronto Sun/Léger | 2010-Oct-15 – 2010-Oct-18 | 31 | 10 | 30 | - | - | 6 | 600 | 23 | |
Ipsos Reid | 2010-Oct-15 – 2010-Oct-17 | 33 | 13 | 31 | - | - | - | 500 | 20 | |
Nanos Research | 2010-Oct-14 – 2010-Oct-16 | 43.9 | 15.0 | 40.5 | - | - | - | 1000 | 18.5 | |
Angus Reid | 2010-Oct-14 – 2010-Oct-15 | 41 | 16 | 40 | - | - | 3 | 1001 | ? | |
Forum Research | 2010-Oct-14 | 44 | 16 | 38 | dropped out Oct. 13 | - | - | 700 | ? | |
Ipsos Reid | 2010-Oct-09 – 2010-Oct-11 | 39.5 | 14.5 | 40.8 | 5.3 | dropped out Sept. 28 | - | 400 | 25 | |
Ipsos Reid | 2010-Sep-24 – 2010-Sep-26 | 34 | 12 | 28 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 400 | 17 | |
Nanos Research | 2010-Sep-14 – 2010-Sep-16 | 45.8 | 16.8 | 21.3 | 9.7 | 6.4 | - | 1021 | 25 | |
Toronto Star/Angus Reid | 2010-Sep-14 – 2010-Sep-15 | 39 | 13 | 26 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 502 | 36 | |
Pollara | 2010-Sep-08 – 2010-Sep-12 | 46 | 11 | 24 | 7 | 10 | - | 700 | 22 | |
Forum Research | 2010-Aug-30 – 2010-Aug-31 | 34 | 11 | 22 | 15 | 14 | 4 | 400 | 33 | |
Toronto Star/Angus Reid | 2010-Aug-25 – 2010-Aug-26 | 42 | 11 | 36 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 501 | 28 | |
National Post/Ipsos Reid | 2010-Aug-20 – 2010-Aug-22 | 41 | 11 | 27 | 13 | 11 | - | 400 | 21 | |
Pollstra Research | 2010-Jul-30 – 2010-Aug-05 | 37.6 | 15.5 | 28.7 | 7.9 | 10.3 | - | 432 | 32 | |
Forum Research | 2010-Jun-11 – 2010-Jun-13 | 26 | 12 | 29 | 10 | 17 | Giorgio Mammoliti – 4 | 405 | 44 | |
Nanos Research | 2010-Jun-07 – 2010-Jun-11 | 29.2 | 16.6 | 26.1 | 14.8 | 9.5 | Giorgio Mammoliti – 4.1 | 1000 | 40 | |
Environics | 2010-Apr-19 – 2010-May-08 | 27 | 9 | 34 | 13 | 14 | Giorgio Mammoliti – 4 | 485 | 44 | |
Angus Reid | 2010-Apr-08 – 2010-Apr-12 | 27 | 14 | 34 | 13 | 7 | Giorgio Mammoliti – 4 | 413 | 51 | |
Vision Critical | 2010-Jan-08 – 2010-Jan-11 | - | 5 | 44 | 15 | - | Shelley Carroll – 5, Adam Giambrone – 17, Giorgio Mammoliti – 4 | 503 | 58 | |
Angus Reid | 2009-Oct-22 – 2009-Oct-25 | - | - | 21 | - | - | John Tory – 46, Adam Giambrone – 14, Glen Murray – 8, Denzil Minnan-Wong – 3, Giorgio Mammoliti – 1 |