2012 Alberta general election


The 2012 Alberta general election, took place April 23, 2012, to elect members of the 28th Legislative Assembly of Alberta. A Senate nominee election was called for the same day.
During the 2011 Progressive Conservative Association leadership election, eventual winner Alison Redford stated that if she became Premier she intended to pass legislation setting a fixed election date. After taking office, her government introduced a bill relating to the timing of elections, which was passed on December 6, 2011. Unlike other fixed election date legislation in Canada, the 2011 Election Amendment Act fixes the election to a three-month period, between March 1 and May 31 in the fourth calendar year. However, like other legislation, this does not affect the powers of the Lieutenant Governor to dissolve the Legislature before this period. The writs of elections were dropped March 26, 2012.
Although the Wildrose Party led opinion polls for much of the campaign, on election night the Progressive Conservatives defied expectations to win 61 seats – a net loss of only five – en route to their 12th consecutive majority government. The victory made Redford the third woman elected in her own right as a provincial premier in Canada, and the first woman elected premier in a province outside Atlantic Canada. On September 4, 2014, the Alberta PC Party became the longest-running provincial government in Canadian history.

Background

27th Legislature

The 27th Alberta Legislature saw a significant decline in the polls for the governing Progressive Conservatives and the popularity of Premier Ed Stelmach.
The Wildrose Party has been the primary beneficiary of voter migration in opinion polls from the governing party, after former leader Paul Hinman won a by-election, and the party elected Danielle Smith as leader. On January 4, 2010, the Wildrose caucus became the third party, displacing the New Democrats, when PC MLAs Rob Anderson and Heather Forsyth joined the Wildrose. Later in 2010, former PC cabinet minister Guy Boutilier joined the Wildrose, becoming its fourth MLA. However, their support has waned in the past year, as have polling fortunes for the Liberal Party. Alberta's NDP has doubled their results in recent polls compared to their percentage in the last election.
The Liberals have lost two MLAs since the previous election — Dave Taylor to sit as an independent, before becoming the first MLA for the Alberta Party; and Bridget Pastoor who crossed the floor to join the PC caucus, in November, 2011. However, the Liberals gained one in selecting Raj Sherman as their leader in September 2011, who had been ejected from the PC caucus in November 2010.
On January 25, 2011, Ed Stelmach abruptly announced that he would not seek re-election, and would resign as leader of the Progressive Conservatives and as premier after a successor was chosen. Alison Redford was chosen as Stelmach's successor on October 1, 2011, and her election has improved the fortunes of her party in opinion polls. Her new government presented six pieces of legislation, the most notable of which regarded fixed election dates, an investigation into health care, and tougher penalties for impaired driving. All six bills were passed in the fall 2011 sitting of the 27th Legislature. The 2012 election is a result of the fixed election legislation, which fixed the date of the next provincial election in Alberta between March 1 and May 31, 2012, and requires subsequent elections in that period in the fourth calendar year thereafter. The law does not affect the ability of Alberta's Lieutenant-Governor to dissolve the assembly and call an election before that time. However, that is not likely to occur during majority governments. The legislature was dissolved and the writs were dropped on March 26, 2012.

Green Party dispute

A year after the previous general election the Alberta Greens became mired in an internal dispute that resulted in the collapse of the party, and its de-registration by Elections Alberta. Some of the former Green party executive, including former deputy leader Edwin Erickson, eventually joined the Alberta Party, while others regrouped and founded the Evergreen Party of Alberta.

Results

As indicated on the maps, the rural vote split largely on regional lines. Wildrose support was concentrated largely in Southern Alberta while the party won only one seat north of the 53rd parallel, while the PCs were reduced to just one seat in rural Southern Alberta. Wildrose won only three urban seats while the PC's won the majority of seats in both Calgary and Edmonton, swept Edmonton's suburbs and swept the two seats contested in each of Fort McMurray, Grande Prairie, Lethbridge and Red Deer. The Liberals were confined to the two largest cities, winning three seats in Calgary and two in Edmonton. The New Democrats won all four of their seats in Edmonton.
The PCs polled about 44 percent of the popular vote, and four cabinet ministers were defeated. The Wildrose won 17 seats to become the Official Opposition for the first time. It was a net increase of thirteen seats for the party, although two of the four Wildrose incumbents were defeated by their PC challengers. The party polled more than 34 percent of the popular vote, more than five times their share in the previous election, and finished a close second in dozens of constituencies.
The Liberals saw their share of the vote plummet by almost two thirds and polled under ten percent for the first time since 1982. The result therefore appeared to give credence to speculation that Liberal voters from last election would vote "strategically" in a bid to defeat the Wildrose Party. Nevertheless, the five Liberal incumbents seeking re-election all managed to hold on their seats, with the Liberals losing the three seats where their incumbents did not run again. It is the Liberals' lowest seat total since the 1986 election. The Liberals were relegated to third party status in the Legislature for the first time since 1993.
The New Democrats won four seats, double their previous total and enough to secure official party status in the Legislature. Both NDP incumbents were re-elected. The NDP polled just under ten percent of the vote, marginally less than the Liberals' share and a modest increase from the last election.

Summary

The voter turnout was 54%.

Vote and seats summaries

By region

Gains, holds, and losses

Defeated incumbents

Notes:
  1. Morton was an incumbent in Foothills-Rocky View
  2. Benito sat as a Progressive Conservative in the 27th Legislative Assembly, lost the candidate nomination, and ran as an independent
  3. Boutilier was elected as a Progressive Conservative in the 2008 election
  4. Danyluk was an incumbent in Lac La Biche-St. Paul
  5. Lund was an incumbent in Rocky Mountain House

    Opinion polls

The following is a summary of opinion polls leading up to the 2012 election.

MLAs not running again

;Progressive Conservative
;Liberal
;Alberta Party
;Independent
Bold indicates cabinet members, and party leaders are italicized.

Northern Alberta

Central Edmonton

Suburban Edmonton

Western and Central Alberta

East Central Alberta

Central Calgary

Suburban Calgary

Southern Alberta