2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania


The 2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Casey, Jr. ran for and won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Tom Smith, and Libertarian nominee Rayburn Smith.
The requisite primary elections occurred on April 24, 2012, during which the Republicans and Democrats selected nominees for the general election. The Republican primary was a five-way contest. Tom Smith, the eventual nominee, faced David A. Christian, Sam Rohrer, Marc Scaringi, and Steve Welch. The Democratic primary was not heavily contested. Incumbent Bob Casey, Jr., defeated Joseph Vodvarka by a wide margin. The Libertarian Party nominated Rayburn Smith.
Casey led most pre-election polls and eventually defeated his opponents to win re-election to a second term in the U.S. Senate. In so doing, Casey became the first Democratic Senator from Pennsylvania elected to a second term in 50 years.

Background

On November 7, 2006, Bob Casey, Jr., the State Treasurer and son of former Governor Bob Casey, Sr., defeated two-term incumbent Republican Senator Rick Santorum with 58.64% of votes cast. Santorum's margin of defeat was the largest for an incumbent Republican Senator in Pennsylvania history; it was also the first time a Democrat was elected to a full Senate term from Pennsylvania since Joseph Clark was re-elected in 1962. The 2012 election would also become the first time a Democrat won re-election to the U.S. Senate from Pennsylvania since the 1962 election.
Pennsylvania is considered a battleground state; since the 1970 election of Governor Milton Shapp, partisan control of the governorship has alternated between Democratic and Republican. Additionally, Republicans have controlled the State Senate since 1995, while Democrats assumed control of the State House following the 2006 election, only to lose control in the 2010 election. Democrats had won the state in every presidential election from 1992 to 2012.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Republican primary

Candidates

On ballot

In January 2012, the Pennsylvania Republican Party officially endorsed Steve Welch for U.S. Senate. The largest state newspaper, The Philadelphia Inquirer, also endorsed Welch. He was also endorsed by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. However, he was criticized for changing his party registration. In 2008, he became a Democrat so he could vote for Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary. In 2006, he donated money to Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak.
Tom Smith spent nearly $3 million in the first three months of 2012, outspending Welch 2-1. Smith has spent a wide majority of it in television advertising. Like Welch, Smith has also registered as a Democrat. However, unlike Welch who was a registered Democrat for only a few years, Smith was a Democrat for 42 years. Smith was a Plumcreek Township Supervisor and allegedly raised taxes 9 times. Over the past decade, he donated over $185,000 to Republican candidates. The only Democrat he donated to was Congressman Jason Altmire, a moderate Blue Dog.
Sam Rohrer, a former State Representative, ran for statewide office again after losing to State Attorney General Tom Corbett in the 2010 Republican primary for Pennsylvania Governor. Rohrer was endorsed by various tea party organizations, as well as U.S. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and 2012 Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain.
David Christian, a Vietnam war veteran and businessman, also ran. He previously ran for congress in 1984 and 1986. He was endorsed by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

Polling

Results

General election

Candidates

Top contributors

Bob Casey, Jr.ContributionTom SmithContribution
Comcast Corp$95,175Rosebud Mining$26,000
Blank Rome LLP$65,500Tj Smith Trucking$15,000
Reed Smith LLP$61,800Penneco Oil Co$12,500
Cozen O'Connor$44,975Transportation Equipment Supply Co$11,500
University of Pennsylvania$44,450R&S Machine Co$10,250
Buchanan, Ingersoll & Rooney$43,098Citizens United$10,000
K&L Gates$42,650Mepco LLC$10,000
Pride Mobility Products$40,250Snyder Armclar Gas$10,000
Blue Cross & Blue Shield$39,950Stitt Management$10,000
National Amusements Inc.$39,250Penn Waste$10,000

Top industries

Bob Casey, Jr.ContributionTom SmithContribution
Lawyers/Law Firms$2,095,026Retired$104,725
Lobbyists$407,472Mining$87,800
Real Estate$389,559Republican/Conservative$43,500
Health Professionals$336,023Oil & Gas$40,750
Financial Institutions$335,998Misc Business$35,300
Retired$329,132Financial Institutions$25,500
Pharmaceuticals/Health Products$313,597Misc Manufacturing & Distributing$19,650
Hospitals/Nursing Homes$296,737Leadership PACs$19,000
Entertainment Industry$237,825Misc Energy$18,000
Insurance$221,750Trucking$15,250

Predictions

Polling


Hypothetical polling		-------------

;Republican primary

Results

Despite many predictions of a close race, the election was not close. Casey, despite being seen as somewhat vulnerable, went into election night with most analysts thinking he could win. Casey did win by more than expected, which can be traced to several factors. Casey trounced Smith in Philadelphia County, home of Philadelphia. Casey also won the surrounding collar counties of Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery, which are seen as vital in statewide elections in Pennsylvania. Casey also performed well in Allegheny County, home of Pittsburgh. Casey also performed well in Erie. Casey also performed strongly in the Scranton area. Smith did well in rural counties, but it wasn't enough to overcome the lead Casey had built in the huge population centers. Casey was sworn in for his second term beginning at noon on January 3, 2013.
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