2015 Asturian regional election


The 2015 Asturian regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 10th General Junta of the Principality of Asturias. All 45 seats in the General Junta were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.
Final results showed the Asturian Socialist Federation with 26.5% of the vote, the People's Party in second with 21.6% and newly created Podemos in a close third with 19.1%. The Asturias Forum, which had ruled the community in the 2011–12 period, saw a dramatic loss of support, falling to fifth place with 8.2% and 3 seats, overcame by a stagnant United Left and in a draw with up-and-coming Citizens.
Socialist leader Javier Fernández was able to retain the regional government thanks to the support of United Left, after PP and FAC joined their votes against the PSOE and with Podemos supporting its own candidate.

Overview

Background

Following the 2012 election, regional PSOE leader Javier Fernández was able to be elected as President of Asturias thanks to a confidence and supply agreement with both IU-IX and UPyD. However, in November 2013 both parties announced they were withdrawing support from the government after the PSOE voted down a proposal to reform the autonomous community's electoral law, leaving the regional government in minority. To prevent a parliamentary deadlock, however, the PSOE unexpectedly reached an agreement with the PP to obtain its parliamentary support to avoid political instability, in what was dubbed by opponents as the duerno agreement.
Incumbent Socialist Javier Fernández announced his intention to run for re-election to a second term in office, being chosen as his party's candidate without opposition. Opposition leader Francisco Álvarez-Cascos announced on 12 February 2015 that he would not stand again as Asturias Forum's candidate, with Cristina Coto being elected as the party's candidate and leader the following month. Mercedes Fernández was elected as People's Party candidate for a second consecutive time, while Gaspar Llamazares was proclaimed as the candidate for United Left after a primary election held on 24 January 2015.
Finally, Ignacio Prendes, the only deputy of Union, Progress and Democracy, was expelled from the party and will contest as the candidate of Citizens. Adán Fernández will substitute him as the candidate of the party.
The election will be influenced by the surge of two rising parties in opinion polls: Podemos, a left-wing party created in January 2014 to contest the 2014 European Parliament election and whose success brought it to establish itself as a fully-fledged party at the national level, and centrist Citizens, whose rise in opinion polls early in 2015 and its success in the 2015 Andalusian election has brought it at the center of media attention. Emilio León will stand as Podemos' candidate after being elected in a primary election process held during the last weeks of March, Citizens will also run in the election, despite an early controversy resulted in the resignation of the former party's candidate Francisco Gambarte and the party staff considering whether to stand or not in the region. Nicanor García will be the candidate, while Ignacio Prendes, expelled from UPyD, will be the second person in the list.
On 21 April, it was confirmed that 19 parties will take part in the election.

Electoral system

The General Junta of the Principality of Asturias was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Asturias, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Asturian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Principality. Voting for the General Junta was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered in Asturias and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Asturians abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote.
The 45 members of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 3 percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method might result in an effective threshold over three percent, depending on the district magnitude. Seats were allocated to constituencies, which were established by law as follows:
Each constituency was entitled to an initial minimum of two seats, with the remaining 39 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations.
The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they sought election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.

Election date

The term of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias expired four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the General Junta were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous ordinary election was held on 22 May 2011, setting the election date for the General Junta on Sunday, 24 May 2015.
The President of the Principality had the prerogative to dissolve the General Junta and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the General Junta was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms.

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias.

Results

Overall

Distribution by constituency

Aftermath