2016 Colombian peace agreement referendum
The Colombian peace agreement referendum was held on October 2, 2016 to ratify the final agreement on the termination of the Colombian conflict between the Colombian government and the FARC guerillas. It failed with 50.2% voting against it and 49.8% voting in favor. Approval of the referendum was taken for granted in Colombia. Explanations for the surprising "No" victory fell along the similar ideological lines of Donald Trump's victory in the US Elections and the Brexit vote in the UK, both also held in 2016
Background
The aim of this vote was the direct approval or rejection by voters of the agreements signed between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia in Cartagena de Indias, September 27, 2016. The peace negotiations began on August 26, 2012, in Havana, and concluded on August 25, 2016. The final agreement included topics of rural reform, political participation, the end of hostilities, solutions to the production of illicit drugs, the rights of victims, and the mechanisms of implementation and verification.On July 18, 2016 the Constitutional Court approved the holding of a national plebiscite to validate the peace agreement. The ballot paper consisted of a single question for voters to approve or reject the signed peace agreements:
For the agreement to be approved, the "Yes" votes had to account for at least 13% of the electorate and outnumber the "No" votes.
Campaign
Yes
President Juan Manuel Santos, who was a promoter of the peace talks, announced the support for the 'Yes' option. The 'Yes' campaign received the support of many members of the Colombian community from the political left, centre and right. The political parties that were in favour are the Alternative Democratic Pole, the Social Party of National Unity, Radical Change, the Independent Movement of Absolute Renovation, the Indigenous Social Alliance Movement, the Green Party of Colombia, the Colombian Conservative Party and the Liberal Party of Colombia.signing the peace treaty with FARC leader Rodrigo Londono Echeverri, also known as Timochenko
Although most public figures in Colombia refused to explicitly declare their support for either the 'Yes' or 'No' vote, many indicated their support for 'Yes' through various messages. Colombia's best-known singers Shakira, Carlos Vives, Juanes and Fonseca all posted messages of support and hope for peace on their Twitter accounts. International footballer Falcao wrote a letter to the newspaper El Tiempo in which he stated that he imagined "a country with the capacity to forgive", while former Colombian striker Carlos Valderrama was more outspoken in his support, appearing at campaign rallies for the 'Yes' vote and saying he wanted a better country for his children. Cyclist Nairo Quintana, who had won the Vuelta a España and come second in the Tour de France in 2016, asked his fellow Colombians to support the peace accord, describing it as "a step we had to take". Novelist Héctor Abad Faciolince, whose father Héctor Abad Gómez had been murdered for his stance on human rights, expressed his happiness that an accord had been reached. Internationally renowned sculptor Fernando Botero sent a sculpture of a white dove to the Colombian presidential palace, created in his signature "fat" style of portraying people and animals. It was accompanied by a message that he had wanted to create "this present for my country in order to express my support and my solidarity with this process". A Twitter campaign to promote the peace process outside Colombia, entitled "#Peace4Colombia", attracted the support of Colombian-born Hollywood actor John Leguizamo and Spanish singer Miguel Bose, who holds honorary Colombian nationality. Most displaced Colombian victims living outside of the country supported the Yes vote, and voted accordingly, although some were critical of having been excluded from the peace process.
No
The most prominent campaigner for the 'No' vote was current senator and former president Álvaro Uribe. Uribe built his career, including two terms as president, on promises to tackle the guerrilla groups in the country, and had been an outspoken critic of Santos, his successor as president, ever since Santos began negotiations with the FARC. Uribe was supported by senior members of his Democratic Center party, including the 2014 presidential candidate Óscar Iván Zuluaga, 2014 vice-presidential candidate Carlos Holmes Trujillo, and senator Iván Duque Márquez. The party presented several arguments against the peace deal, among them that the guerrillas would not serve time in prison, that they would automatically be awarded ten seats in Congress, that the deal would legalize narcotrafficking, and that in pursuing the negotiations Santos had gone beyond the terms of the Colombian constitution.Other senior political figures who spoke out against the peace accord were conservative former Inspector General Alejandro Ordóñez, who feared it would legitimize violence within the country, and former president Andrés Pastrana, rejecting the position of his own Conservative Party. As Uribe's predecessor as president, Pastrana had himself attempted to negotiate a peace deal with the FARC between 1999 and 2002.
Outside of politics, other well-known Colombians also rejected the peace deal. Novelist and filmmaker Fernando Vallejo, who was born in Colombia but who became a naturalized Mexican citizen in 2007, launched a strong attack against the negotiations during a debate at the World Summit of Art and Culture for Peace in Bogotá on April 6, 2016, describing president Santos as "shameless" and calling the FARC "thugs". The strongly religious footballer Daniel Alejandro Torres, a regular starter in the Colombian national football team during 2016, published a video on his Instagram account in which he accused Santos of not placing Jesus at the heart of the negotiations. John Jairo Velásquez, the former hitman for Pablo Escobar and the Medellín drug cartel, also expressed his opposition to the accord.
Opinion polls
Attitudes among Colombians have matched the elite cues from Santos and Uribe: those who support Uribe's party and preferred candidates dropped down in support for the peace process, while those who continued to support Santos did the opposite. Moreover, messaging can shift support on the peace process: support for a peace process is higher than specific policies included in the peace process, and support is even lower if the policies are tied to the FARC.The following table shows the results of opinion polling from the date of the announcement of the wording of the referendum question on August 30, 2016 up to the date of the referendum on October 2, 2016.
| Date conducted | Sample size | Margin of error | Polling organisation/client | Yes | No |
| Aug 31–Sep 1, 2016 | 2109 | 2.13% | 59.5% | 33.2% | |
| Sep 1–5, 2016 | 1526 | 4.9% | 72% | 28% | |
| Sep 6–8, 2016 | 2109 | 2.13% | 64.8% | 28.1% | |
| Sep 13–15, 2016 | 2109 | 2.13% | 55.3% | 38.3% | |
| Sep 14–18, 2016 | 1200 | 4.9% | 67.6% | 32.4% | |
| Sep 15–20, 2016 | 3007 | 2.0% | 54% | 34% | |
| Sep 21–25, 2016 | 1524 | 3.5% | 66% | 34% | |
| Sep 25–26, 2016 | 1471 | 3.7% | 62% | 38% |