2016 Japanese House of Councillors election
The 24th regular election of members of the House of Councillors was held on Sunday 10 July 2016 to elect 121 of the 242 members of the House of Councillors, the upper house of the 717-member bicameral National Diet of Japan, for a term of six years. As a result of the election, the LDP/Komeito coalition gained ten seats for a total of 146, the largest coalition achieved since the size of the house was set at 242 seats.
76 members were elected by single non-transferable vote and first-past-the-post voting in 45 multi- and single-member prefectural electoral districts; for the first time, there were two combined single-member districts consisting of two prefectures each, Tottori-Shimane and Tokushima-Kōchi. This change and several other reapportionments were part of an electoral reform law passed by the Diet in July 2015 designed to reduce the maximum ratio of malapportionment in the House of Councillors below 3. The nationwide district which elects 48 members by D'Hondt proportional representation with most open lists remained unchanged.
This election was the first national election since the 2015 change to the Public Offices Election Act, which allowed people from 18 years of age to vote in national, prefectural and municipal elections and in referendums. The legal voting age prior to the change was 20.
Background
The term of members elected in the 2010 regular election ends on July 25, 2016. Under the "Public Offices Election Act" , the regular election must be held within 30 days before that date, or under certain conditions if the Diet is in session or scheduled to open at that time, between 24 and 30 days after the closure of the session and thus potentially somewhat after the actual end of term. The election date was July 10 with the deadline for nominations and the start of legal campaigning 18 days before the election.Prior to the election, the Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito controlled a two-thirds super-majority of seats in the House of Representatives but did not control a similar super-majority of seats in the House of Councillors, necessary to initiate amendments of the Constitution of Japan. In order to deny a super-majority to the LDP and other pro-amendment parties, the parties opposed to amending the constitution agreed to field a single candidate in each single-seat district, leading to a number of one-on-one races between the LDP and an opposition candidate. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, historically a vocal proponent of constitutional revision, generally avoided discussing the constitution during the campaign, instead focusing on his "Abenomics" economic policies.
On the eve of the election, Gerald Curtis described the race as "one of the dullest in recent memory," pointing out that "never in Japan's postwar history has the political opposition been as enfeebled as it is now... That's why widespread public disappointment with the government's economic policies hasn't hurt Mr. Abe politically. The prevailing sentiment is that he has done better than his predecessors, and replacing him with another LDP leader, let alone an opposition coalition government, would only make matters worse—especially now that the global economy is in turmoil."
Pre-election composition
As of the official announcement on 22 June :In the class of members facing re-election, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Kōmeitō had a combined 60 of 121 seats, slightly short of a majority. The main opposition Democratic Party held 47 seats. As the coalition held 77 seats not being contested at this election, they only needed to retain 44 seats in the election to maintain their majority in the House. The LDP, which held 117 seats alone, had to gain five seats to reach a majority of its own and make the coalition with Kōmeitō unnecessary. In the other direction, the governing coalition would have to lose 16 seats or more to forfeit its overall majority in the House of Councillors and face a technically divided Diet. However, as independents and minor opposition groups might be willing to support the government on a regular basis without inclusion in the cabinet, the losses required to face an actual divided Diet may have been much higher. If the Diet were divided after the election, the coalition's two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives could still override the House of Councillors and pass legislation, but certain Diet decisions, notably the approval of certain nominations by the cabinet such as public safety commission members or Bank of Japan governor, would require the cooperation of at least part of the opposition or an expansion of the ruling coalition.
Among the members facing re-election were House of Councillors President Masaaki Yamazaki, Vice President Azuma Koshiishi, Justice Minister Mitsuhide Iwaki and Okinawa and Science Minister Aiko Shimajiri.
Policy effects
The election gave a two-thirds super-majority in the upper house to the four parties in favor of constitutional revision. After the election, Abe publicly acknowledged that constitutional revision would be "not so easy" and said "I expect the discussion will be deepened." The Chinese government voiced concern about the result, while South Korean newspaper Munhwa Ilbo opined that the election results "opened the door for a Japan that can go to war."Abe announced a major economic stimulus package following the election, leading to a spike in the Japanese stock markets.
District reapportionment
The following districts saw a change in their representation within the House at this election. One set of reforms were introduced in 2012 and first took effect at the 2013 election; the districts affected by the 2015 reforms are shaded.| District | Magnitude | Notes |
| Hokkaidō | 3 | Increased from 2 |
| Miyagi | 1 | Decreased from 2 |
| Fukushima | 1 | 2 incumbents in outgoing class |
| Tokyo | 6 | Increased from 5 |
| Kanagawa | 4 | 3 incumbents in outgoing class |
| Niigata | 1 | Decreased from 2 |
| Nagano | 1 | Decreased from 2 |
| Gifu | 1 | 2 incumbents in outgoing class |
| Aichi | 4 | Increased from 3 |
| Osaka | 4 | 3 incumbents in outgoing class |
| Hyogo | 3 | Increased from 2 |
| Tottori-Shimane | 1 | Created from the merger of the single-member Tottori and Shimane districts |
| Tokushima-Kōchi | 1 | Created from the merger of the single-member Tokushima and Kochi districts |
| Fukuoka | 3 | Increased from 2 |
Opinion Polls
Notable results
- A record 28 women picked up seats in the election. Among them, actress Junko Mihara won a seat representing Kanagawa Prefecture for the LDP.
- Yoshimi Watanabe, former leader of Your Party, returned to the Diet in this election, winning a seat as part of Osaka Ishin no Kai.
- Justice minister Mitsuhide Iwaki lost his seat in Fukushima Prefecture to an opposition-supported candidate.
- Aiko Shimajiri, state minister for Okinawan affairs, lost her seat to former Ginowan, Okinawa mayor Yoichi Iha, a critic of the US military presence in Okinawa supported by a coalition of opposition parties. This was viewed by some analysts as a setback for the proposed relocation of Marine Corps Air Station Futenma.
- Former Olympic volleyball player Kentaro Asahi won a seat representing the Tokyo at-large district for the LDP.
- On the same day, journalist Satoshi Mitazono defeated incumbent Yuichiro Ito in a gubernatorial election in Kagoshima Prefecture. Mitazono campaigned on a platform focused on suspension of the Sendai Nuclear Power Plant.
Results
- Majority at 122 seats – LDP at 121 in the election result
- Two-thirds supermajority at 162 – Election result: Ruling parties at 146, government+revisionist opposition parties at 161, government+government-aligned independents +revisionist opposition at 164
- One third at 81 – Core anti-revisionist opposition at 73
- Initiating budget-related Private member's bills : 20 seats – met in the opposition only by DP
- Initiating other PMBs, excluding budget-related measures: 10 seats, met in the opposition by DP, JCP and Ōsaka Ishin
Results by electoral district
- L – Liberal Democratic Party
- D – Democratic Party
- K – Komeito
- C - Japanese Communist Party
- S – Social Democratic Party
- I – Independent
- Osaka Ishin – Initiatives from Osaka
- PLP – People's Life Party
- Kokoro – Party for Japanese Kokoro
- AEJ – Assembly to Energize Japan
- NRP – New Renaissance Party
- NPD – New Party Daichi
- support no party – , domestically Shiji seitō nashi
- Angry voice of the people
- HRP – Happiness Realization Party
| District | Magnitude | Incumbents | Winners & runner-up with vote share | Gains & losses by party |
| Hokkaidō | 3 | Gaku Hasegawa Eri Tokunaga | Gaku Hasegawa 25.5% Eri Tokunaga 22.0% Yoshio Hachiro 19.3% Katsuhiro Kakiki 19.0% | D +1 |
| Aomori | 1 | Tsutomu Yamazaki | Masayo Tanabu 49.2% Tsutomu Yamazaki 47.9% | L -1 D +1 |
| Iwate | 1 | Ryō Shuhama | Eiji Kidoguchi 53.3% Shin'ichi Tanaka 41.0% | D -1 I +1 |
| Miyagi | 1 | Yutaka Kumagai Mitsuru Sakurai | Mitsuru Sakurai 51.1% Yutaka Kumagai 47.0% | L -1 |
| Akita | 1 | Hiroo Ishii | Hiroo Ishii 53.9% Daigo Matsuura 44.0% | |
| Yamagata | 1 | Kōichi Kishi | Yasue Funayama 59.0% Kaoru Tsukino 38.3% | L -1 I +1 |
| Fukushima | 1 | Teruhiko Mashiko Mitsuhide Iwaki | Teruhiko Mashiko 50.5% Mitsuhide Iwaki 47.2% | L -1 |
| Ibaraki | 2 | Hiroshi Okada Akira Gunji | Hiroshi Okada 50.3% Akira Gunji 25.3% Kyōko Kobayashi 9.4% | |
| Tochigi | 1 | Michiko Ueno | Michiko Ueno 58.9% Takao Tanobe 38.3% | |
| Gunma | 1 | Hirofumi Nakasone | Hirofumi Nakasone 66.0% Keinin Horikoshi 31.1% | |
| Saitama | 3 | Masakazu Sekiguchi Makoto Nishida Motohiro Ōno | Masakazu Sekiguchi 29.2% Motohiro Ōno 22.0% Makoto Nishida 20.9% Gaku Itō 15.8% | |
| Chiba | 3 | Hiroyuki Konishi Kuniko Inoguchi Ken'ichi Mizuno | Kuniko Inoguchi 29.2% Taiichirō Motoe 22.1% Hiroyuki Konishi 18.1% Fumiko Asano 13.5% Ken'ichi Mizuno 12.1% | D -1 L +1 |
| Tokyo | 6 | Renhō Toshiko Takeya Masaharu Nakagawa Toshio Ogawa Kōta Matsuda | Renhō 18.0% Masaharu Nakagawa 14.2% Toshiko Takeya 12.4% Taku Yamazoe 10.7% Kentarō Asahi 10.4% Toshio Ogawa 8.2% Yasuo Tanaka 7.5% ... Kazuyuki Hamada 0.5% | AEJ -1 L +1 C +1 |
| Kanagawa | 4 | Akio Koizumi Kenji Nakanishi Yōichi Kaneko | Junko Mihara 24.5% Nobuhiro Miura 15.3% Yūichi Mayama 14.2% Kenji Nakanishi 12.8% Yuka Asaka 11.9% Yōichi Kaneko 10.9% | K +1 I joins L |
| Niigata | 1 | Naoki Tanaka Yaichi Nakahara | Yūko Mori 49.0% Yaichi Nakahara 48.8% | L -1 D -1 I +1 |
| Toyama | 1 | Kōtarō Nogami | Kōtarō Nogami 69.2% Etsuko Dōyō 27.4% | |
| Ishikawa | 1 | Naoki Okada | Naoki Okada 61.7% Miki Shibata 36.0% | |
| Fukui | 1 | Masaaki Yamazaki | Masaaki Yamazaki 60.1% Tatsuhiro Yokoyama 36.3% | |
| Yamanashi | 1 | Azuma Koshiishi | Yuka Miyazawa 43.0% Tsuyoshi Takano 37.8% | |
| Nagano | 1 | Kenta Wakabayashi Toshimi Kitazawa | Hideya Sugio 52.5% Kenta Wakabayashi 45.7% | L -1 |
| Gifu | 1 | Takeyuki Watanabe Yoshiharu Komiyama | Takeyuki Watanabe 55.8% Yoshiharu Komiyama 40.9% | D -1 |
| Shizuoka | 2 | Shigeki Iwai Yūji Fujimoto | Shigeki Iwai 44.3% Sachiko Hirayama 41.0% Chika Suzuki 10.2% | |
| Aichi | 4 | Mashito Fujikawa Yoshitaka Saitō Misako Yasui | Masahito Fujikawa 29.3% Yoshitaka Saitō 17.5% Ryūji Satomi 16.2% Takae Itō 15.8% Hatsumi Suyama 9.2% | K +1 |
| Mie | 1 | Hirokazu Shiba | Hirokazu Shiba 49.7% Sachiko Yamamoto 47.5% | |
| Shiga | 1 | Kumiko Hayashi | Takashi Koyari 52.2% Kumiko Hayashi 45.8% | D -1 L +1 |
| Kyoto | 2 | Tetsurō Fukuyama Satoshi Ninoyu | Satoshi Ninoyu 40.0% Tetsurō Fukuyama 36.9% Toshitaka Ōkawara 20.0% | |
| Osaka | 4 | Issei Kitagawa Tomoyuki Odachi Hirotaka Ishikawa | Rui Matsukawa 20.4% Hitoshi Asada 19.5% Hirotaka Ishikawa 18.2% Kaori Takagi 17.9% Yui Watanabe 12.2% Tomoyuki Odachi 9.3% | D -1 Osaka Ishin +2 |
| Hyōgo | 3 | Shinsuke Suematsu Shun'ichi Mizuoka | Shinsuke Suematsu 26.3% Takae Itō 22.2% Daisuke Katayama 21.8% Shun'ichi Mizuoka 17.2% | D -1 L +1 Osaka Ishin +1 |
| Nara | 1 | Kiyoshige Maekawa | Kei Satō 45.5% Kiyoshige Makawa 33.7% | D -1 L +1 |
| Wakayama | 1 | Yōsuke Tsuruho | Yōsuke Tsuruho 69.2% Takanobu Yura 26.1% | |
| Tottori-Shimane | 1 | From Tottori: Kazuyuki Hamada From Shimane: Kazuhiko Aoki | Kazuhiko Aoki 62.7% Hirohiko Fukushima 34.7% | I -1 |
| Okayama | 1 | Satsuki Eda | Kimi Onoda 55.6% Kentarō Kuroishi 41.9% | D -1 L +1 |
| Hiroshima | 2 | Yōichi Miyazawa Minoru Yanagida | Yōichi Miyazawa 49.8% Minoru Yanagida 23.1% Kana Haioka 13.8% | |
| Yamaguchi | 1 | Kiyoshi Ejima | Kiyoshi Ejima 64.0% Atsushi Kōketsu 29.8% | |
| Tokushima-Kōchi | 1 | From Tokushima: Yūsuke Nakanishi From Kōchi: Hajime Hirota | Yūsuke Nakanishi 54.1% Sō Ōnishi 42.9% | D -1 |
| Kagawa | 1 | Yoshihiko Isozaki | Yoshihiko Isozaki 65.1% Ken'ichi Tanabe 26.1% | |
| Ehime | 1 | Junzō Yamamoto | Junzō Yamamoto 49.6% Takako Nagae 48.3% | |
| Fukuoka | 3 | Satoshi Ōie Tsutomu Ōkubo | Yukihito Koga 30.7% Satoshi Ōie 29.3% Hiromi Takase 21.4% Masako Shibata 9.0% | K +1 |
| Saga | 1 | Takamaro Fukuoka | Takamaro Fukuoka 65.6% Tetsuji Nakamura 31.3% | |
| Nagasaki | 1 | Genjirō Kaneko | Genjirō Kaneko 52.9% Hideko Nishioka 44.9% | |
| Kumamoto | 1 | Yoshifumi Matsumura | Yoshifumi Matsumura 59.1% Hiromi Abe 36.1% | |
| Ōita | 1 | Shin'ya Adachi | Shin'ya Adachi 48.1 Harutomo Koshō 47.9% | |
| Miyazaki | 1 | Shinpei Matsushita | Shinpei Matsushita 62.0% Yōji Yomiyama 33.5% | |
| Kagoshima | 1 | Tetsurō Nomura | Tetsurō Nomura 59.0% Kazumi Shimomachi 29.2% | |
| Okinawa | 1 | Aiko Shimajiri | Yōichi Iha 57.8% Aiko Shimajiri 40.6% | L -1 I +1 |
| National | 48 | L 35.9% of proportional votes→19 seats: Masayuki Tokushige 521,060 Shigeharu Aoyama 481,890 Satsuki Katayama 393,382 Satoshi Nakanishi 392,433 Eriko Imai 319,359 Toshiyuki Adachi 293,735 Eriko Yamatani 249,844 Shin'ya Fujiki 236,119 Hanako Jimi 210,562 Kanehiko Shindō 182,467 Emiko Takagai 177,810 Hiroshi Yamada 149,833 Toshiyuki Fujii 142,132 Masashi Adachi 139,110 Takashi Uto 137,993 Katsumi Ogawa 130,101 Yoshifumi Miyajima 122,833 Toshiei Mizuochi 114,485 Shūkō Sonoda 101,154 Isao Takeuchi 87,578 ... Tsuneo Horiuchi 84,597 | L +7 D -5 K +1 C +2 Osaka Ishin S -1 PLP NRP -1 Kokoro -1 YP -7 | |
| National | 48 | D 21.0% of proportional votes→11 seats: Masao Kobayashi 270,285 Makoto Hamaguchi 266,623 Wakako Yata 215,823 Yoshifu Arita 205,884 Nakanori Kawai 196,023 Shōji Nanba 191,823 Takashi Esaki 184,187 Masayoshi Nataniya 176,683 Michihiro Ishibashi 171,486 Kenzō Fujisue 143,188 Shinkun Haku 138,813 Kaoru Tashiro 113,571 ... Naoki Tanaka 86,596 Takumi Shibata 73,166 ... Takeshi Maeda 59,853 Jirō Ono 46,213 Masami Nishimura 38,899 | L +7 D -5 K +1 C +2 Osaka Ishin S -1 PLP NRP -1 Kokoro -1 YP -7 | |
| National | 48 | K 13.5% of proportional votes→7 seats: Hiroaki Nagasawa 942,266 Kōzō Akino 612,068 Shin'ichi Yokoyama 606,889 Seishi Kumano 605,223 Masaaki Taniai 478,174 Masayoshi Hamada 388,477 Masaru Miyazaki 18,571 Shinji Takeuchi 7,489 | L +7 D -5 K +1 C +2 Osaka Ishin S -1 PLP NRP -1 Kokoro -1 YP -7 | |
| National | 48 | C 10.7% of proportional votes→5 seats: Tadayoshi Ichida 77,348 Tomoko Tamura 49,113 Mikishi Daimon 33,078 Tomo Iwabuchi 31,099 Ryōsuke Takeda 23,938 Tomoko Okuda 23,680 | L +7 D -5 K +1 C +2 Osaka Ishin S -1 PLP NRP -1 Kokoro -1 YP -7 | |
| National | 48 | Osaka Ishin 9.2% of proportional votes→4 seats: Toranosuke Katayama 194,902 Yoshimi Watanabe 143,343 Mitsuko Ishii 68,147 Akira Ishii 50,073 Tsuyoshi Gibu 43,679 | L +7 D -5 K +1 C +2 Osaka Ishin S -1 PLP NRP -1 Kokoro -1 YP -7 | |
| National | 48 | S 2.7% of proportional votes→1 seat: Mizuho Fukushima 254,956 Tadatomo Yoshida 153,197 | L +7 D -5 K +1 C +2 Osaka Ishin S -1 PLP NRP -1 Kokoro -1 YP -7 | |
| National | 48 | PLP 1.9% of proportional votes→1 seat: Ai Aoki 109,050 Yumiko Himei 16,116 | L +7 D -5 K +1 C +2 Osaka Ishin S -1 PLP NRP -1 Kokoro -1 YP -7 | |
| National | 48 | Incumbents on other party lists without seat: Kokoro : none Support no party : none NRP : Tarō Yamada, Hiroyuki Arai Angry voice of the people : none HRP : none | L +7 D -5 K +1 C +2 Osaka Ishin S -1 PLP NRP -1 Kokoro -1 YP -7 |