2016 Northern Territory general election


The 2016 Northern Territory general election was held on Saturday 27 August 2016 to elect all 25 members of the Legislative Assembly in the unicameral Northern Territory Parliament.
Legislation was passed in February 2016 to change the voting method of single-member electorates from full-preferential voting to optional preferential voting. Electoral districts were redistributed in 2015. The election was conducted by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission, an independent body answerable to Parliament.
The one-term incumbent Country Liberal Party minority government, led by Chief Minister Adam Giles, was defeated by the Opposition Labor Party, led by Opposition Leader Michael Gunner. The CLP suffered the worst defeat of a sitting government in the history of the Territory, and one of the worst defeats of a sitting government in Australian history. It was the first time that a sitting Northern Territory government was defeated after only one term. From 11 seats at dissolution, the CLP suffered the worst election performance in its history, winning only two seats—those of second-term MPs Gary Higgins and Lia Finocchiaro. Labor won 18 seats, in the process winning the third-largest majority government in Territory history, and the second-largest since the Territory was granted self-government in 1978. Independents won five seats. Although the independent MPs outnumbered the CLP MPs, on official advice the CLP was recognised as the official opposition.
Additionally, Giles lost his Alice Springs-based seat of Braitling to Labor, making him only the second Chief Minister/Majority Leader to lose his own seat at an election. Labor also took Katherine, previously the safest seat in the Territory, off the CLP. It was the first election that saw Labor win seats in Katherine and inner Alice Springs.
With the overall result beyond doubt, Gunner had himself, Natasha Fyles, and Nicole Manison sworn in as an interim three-person government on 31 August until the full Gunner Ministry could be sworn in on 12 September. The CLP's two surviving MPs, Higgins and Finocchiaro, became leader and deputy leader of the CLP on 2 September.
Despite Labor's massive majority following the 2016 election, the new Labor government re-appointed CLP-turned-independent Kezia Purick as Speaker of the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly for another term.

Results

Post-election pendulum

Seats changing hands

Members in italics did not re-contest their Legislative Assembly seats at this election.

Candidates

Sitting members are in bold. Successful candidates are highlighted in the relevant colour.

Opinion polling

An opinion poll conducted by ReachTEL and commissioned by The Australian which surveyed 1036 residents via robocall on the afternoon of Sunday 1 March 2015, a month after the 2015 CLP leadership spill, across all 18 electorates in Darwin, Palmerston and Alice Springs indicated a 17.6-point two-party swing against the incumbent CLP government since the last election. Had this been repeated at a general election, it would have delivered a comprehensive victory for Labor.
The Northern Territory News commissioned its own MediaReach poll in late July 2016, more than a week before the writ was formally dropped. It showed the two-party swing had further widened to 19 points in favour of the opposition Labor Party. Had this been repeated at a general election, it would have resulted in a landslide Labor victory. It also showed Labor leading by substantial margins in the Darwin area, including a 63–37 percent two-party margin in Palmerston, a conservative bastion for most of the last four decades. This suggested that the CLP was in danger of losing most, if not all, of its parliamentary representation in the Darwin/Palmerston area. The same poll also showed that Labor leader Michael Gunner had a substantial lead over Giles as preferred chief minister.
In what proved to be a warning sign, the 2016 federal election saw a 7.4 percent swing to Labor, which would have been more than enough for a Labor victory had this been repeated at a general election. The CLP also suffered large swings in the Territory's two seats. Solomon, which is largely coextensive with the Darwin/Palmerston area, saw CLP incumbent Natasha Griggs rolled by Labor challenger Luke Gosling on a swing of more than seven points. Warren Snowdon, the Labor member for Lingiari, which covers the rest of the Territory, picked up a healthy swing of seven points.
  1. 3% of voters recorded their intentions as undecided.
  2. 13.7% of voters were initially undecided as to their primary vote, with the CLP on 30.2%, the ALP on 38.0%, the Greens on 6.9% and others on 11.3%. Asked which party the 13.7% undecided had "even a slight leaning" for: 30.8% to the CLP, 27.9% to the ALP, 13.7% to the Greens and 27.7% to others. As a proportion of 13.7%, this equated to CLP 4.2%, ALP 3.8%, Greens 1.9%, other 3.8%, which have been added to the initial totals in the table.

    Timing

The timing of the election is dictated by the Northern Territory Electoral Act. Section 23 of the Act fixes polling day as the fourth Saturday in August of the fourth year after the previous election. The last election was in 2012, and was a regular election. Therefore, the next election was scheduled for Saturday, 27 August 2016.
An earlier election was possible in the event that a motion of no confidence in the government was passed by the assembly. Section 24 of the act states that an early election can be called if a motion of no confidence in the NT government is passed by the assembly, and no new government can secure the assembly's confidence within eight days. The original confidence motion must be tabled with at least three days' notice. Alternatively, section 25 mandates an early election if the assembly rejects an appropriation bill.

Background

The Terry Mills-led CLP opposition defeated the Paul Henderson-led Labor government at the 2012 election, winning 16 of 25 seats.
Adam Giles was elected by the CLP party-room to replace Mills as Chief Minister and CLP leader less than a year later at the 2013 CLP leadership ballot. Giles became the first indigenous head of government of an Australian state or territory.
Resulting from the 2015 CLP leadership ballot on 2 February, the possibility of a confidence motion being put to the assembly was raised by Willem Westra van Holthe to take over the leadership from Giles, however Giles managed to retain the leadership and continued to govern.
Five months later, in July 2015, CLP member Kezia Purick defected from the party, the fourth parliamentarian to leave the CLP since the previous election, reducing the CLP to minority government. Giles raised the possibility of an early election on 20 July stating that he would "love" to call a snap poll, but that it was "pretty much impossible to do". Crossbenchers dismissed the notion of voting against a confidence motion to bring down the government.

Redistribution

A redistribution of the Northern Territory's electoral boundaries commenced in February 2015, with draft boundaries released in June. Once finalised, these boundaries would apply to the 2016 general election.
On 16 June 2015, the NTEC released their proposals for redistribution. Major changes included in the proposal were:
A period of thirty days in which interested parties and individuals could lodge objections ended on 16 July 2015.
On 16 September 2015, the NTEC released their final report into boundaries for 2016 and beyond. The changes that occurred were less severe than those proposed in June:
Following the completion of the final report, it was tabled in the assembly on 16 September 2015.

Election timetable

Country Liberal

The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras Pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in the Legislative Assembly according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two-party-preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.

Pre-election pendulum

Incumbent members who have become and remained an independent since the 2012 election are indicated in grey.
Members listed in italics did not re-contest their seat at the election.