2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina


The 2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina was won by Republican nominee Donald Trump on November 8, 2016, with a 3.67% winning margin, as part of the 2016 general election. North Carolina voters chose 15 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote.
Trump won the state with 49.83% of the vote, a small decrease from Mitt Romney's vote percentage in the 2012 election where he obtained 50.39% of the vote. Clinton obtained 46.17% of the vote, a decrease of over 2% in 2012 when Obama won 48.35% of the vote. Trump won by a margin of 3.66% of the vote, an increase of 1.62% compared to Romney's margin in 2012. Although both candidates saw decreases in vote share compared to 2012, they both obtained more votes than the previous election's candidates due to a higher voter turnout in this election. Trump flipped seven counties to Republican and was the fist Republican to win Gates County since Richard Nixon in 1972. Whereas, Clinton flipped just one county to Democratic, Watauga County.

Primary elections

The Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian primaries were on March 15, 2016. In North Carolina, registered members of each party only voted in their party's primary, while voters who were unaffiliated chose any one primary in which to vote.

Democratic primary

Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:
According to a WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA poll conducted the week before the primary: " Clinton holds a commanding lead of 57% to 34% among likely Democratic voters over U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont."

Results

Republican primary

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:
According to a WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA poll conducted the week before the primary: " Trump tops U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas 41% to 27% among likely GOP voters. U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Ohio Gov. John Kasich trail far behind, at 14% and 11%, respectively."

Results

Trump managed to pull off a closer than expected win due to both Cruz and his campaigns performances in different metropolitan areas. Trump was strongest in the Charlotte, Fayetteville and Wilmington areas. Cruz did best in Greensboro, Asheville and the Research Triangle region, where North Carolina's major colleges and capitol of Raleigh are located.

Libertarian primary

Eleven candidates appeared on the Libertarian presidential primary ballot:

General election

Predictions

  1. CNN: Tossup
  2. Cook Political Report: Tossup
  3. Electoral-vote.com: Leans Trump
  4. NBC: Tossup
  5. RealClearPolitics: Tossup
  6. Sabato's Crystal Ball: Leans Clinton

    Polling

Candidates

In addition to Clinton, Johnson and Trump, Green Party nominee Jill Stein was granted write-in status by the North Carolina State Board of Elections, the only write-in candidate to qualify.

Results

By county

By congressional district

Trump won 10 of 13 congressional districts.
DistrictTrumpClintonRepresentative
30%67%G.K. Butterfield
54%42%Renee Ellmers
54%42%George Holding
60%36%Walter B. Jones
27%68%David Price
57%39%Virginia Foxx
56%41%Mark Walker
57%39%David Rouzer
56%41%Richard Hudson
54%42%Robert Pittenger
60%36%Patrick T. McHenry
62%33%Mark Meadows
28%68%Alma Adams
53%44%Ted Budd

Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican

Predictions

The following were final 2016 predictions from various organizations for North Carolina as of Election Day.
  1. Los Angeles Times: Leans Clinton
  2. CNN: Tossup
  3. Sabato's Crystal Ball: Leans Clinton
  4. NBC: Tossup
  5. Electoral-vote.com: Leans Clinton
  6. RealClearPolitics: Tossup
  7. Fox News: Tossup
  8. ABC: Tossup
Prior to the 2016 election, North Carolina had been a Republican stronghold since 1968 with the state voting Democratic only once between then and 2008. In 2008, North Carolina voted Democratic for only the second time in 40 years. However, the state returned to the Republicans in 2012 when the party's nominee, Mitt Romney, carried the state. Throughout the 2016 campaign, North Carolina was considered by most a tossup state, the outcome going into election night was heavily debated. The Trump campaign saw winning North Carolina as crucial in order for Trump to win the Electoral College; conversely, the Clinton campaign felt that it was vital for them to win the state in order to secure an Electoral College victory. Both Trump and Clinton campaigned in the state shortly before the general election.
Despite winning the state, Trump, in some ways, under-performed in comparison to Romney in 2012. Romney won a majority of the vote in 2012 with 50.4% while Trump only managed a plurality of 49.8%. Similarly, Clinton also under-performed in comparison to Obama, with Clinton winning only 46.2% in comparison to Obama's 48.35%. This situation was the result of the spike in votes for third party candidates in the state as 4% of North Carolinians voted for a candidate other than the Democratic and Republican nominees in 2016 as opposed to just 1.26% in 2012.
An increase in turnout in North Carolina allowed both Trump and Clinton to out-perform Romney and Obama in terms of the total votes each candidate received. In 2016 Trump won around 92,000 more votes than Romney did in 2012 while Clinton won around 10,000 more than Obama. Furthermore, Trump also outperformed Romney by winning North Carolina by a greater margin than Romney was able to as Trump won the state over Clinton by 3.7% compared to the 2% margin Romney won over Obama.
Trump's win in North Carolina marked the 9th time the state has voted Republican in the last 10 elections and, therefore, the state continues to lean more Republican at the presidential level.