2017 Virginia gubernatorial election


The Virginia gubernatorial election of 2017 was held on November 7, 2017. Incumbent Governor Terry McAuliffe of the Democratic Party was not eligible to run for reelection due to term limits established by the Virginia Constitution.
Primary elections took place on June 13, 2017. Virginia utilizes an open primary, in which registered voters are allowed to vote in either party's primary election. The Democratic Party nominated Ralph Northam and the Republican Party nominated Ed Gillespie. The Libertarian Party nominated Clifford Hyra by convention on May 6, 2017.
In the general election on November 7, 2017, Democratic nominee Ralph Northam defeated Republican nominee Ed Gillespie, winning by the largest margin for a Democrat since 1985. Northam became the 73rd governor of Virginia, and assumed office on January 13, 2018. The election had the highest voter turnout percentage in a Virginia gubernatorial election in twenty years with over 47% of the state's constituency casting their ballot.

Democratic primary

Declared

Polling


Hypothetical polling		-------

Results

Republican primary

Declared

Polling

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ed
Gillespie		Corey
Stewart		Frank
Wagner		Rob
Wittman		OtherUndecided
June 8–10, 2017919± 3.1%41%42%16%———
May 9–14, 2017264± 7.0%38%18%15%——24%
April 6–10, 2017435± 4.7%28%12%7%—2%51%
March 16–26, 2017349± 5.7%38%11%10%—3%38%
February 10–15, 2017419± 4.8%24%7%2%—6%59%
January 15–28, 2017418± 5.0%33%7%9%—3%48%
December 6–11, 2016451± 4.6%24%4%4%10%—57%
September 18–21, 2016800± 3.5%38%5%4%12%—40%
June 13–15, 20161,032± 3.1%29%13%—16%—41%


Hypothetical polling		----------

Results

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Nominee

  • Cliff Hyra, attorney

    Withdrawn

  • Jason Carrier

    General election

The race had been closely watched by national observers. For Republicans, National Review wrote that Gillespie's campaign was an important example of whether and how mainstream Republican politics can produce victories in a purple state in the "era of Trumpism" and said that the outcome would affect Republican strategies in future races. Democrats have stated a view that the election is a test of whether the party can find its way after losing the 2016 presidential election and several subsequent special elections. NBC News reported that Northam was the "hand-picked" choice of outgoing Governor Terry McAuliffe, and that McAuliffe's legacy and potential 2020 presidential aspirations depended on Northam winning the election.

Debates

After the primaries, Gillespie challenged Northam to ten debates, but only three were held. The first debate was hosted by the Virginia Bar Association on July 22 in Hot Springs, Virginia. The second was held on September 19, hosted by the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce in Tysons Corner, Virginia, and televised statewide by NBC-affiliated TV stations. The third and final debate was held on October 9 at University of Virginia's College at Wise in Wise, Virginia.
DatesLocationNorthamGillespieLink
September 19, 2017Tysons, VirginiaParticipantParticipant - C-SPAN
October 9, 2017Wise, VirginiaParticipantParticipant - C-SPAN

Endorsements

Predictions

Polling

Polls for the general election varied significantly, ranging from a 17-point lead for Ralph Northam on one end to an 8-point lead for Ed Gillespie on the other, with most polls showing the race within or close to the margin of error. Politico reported that the wide variation in polling numbers was likely due to differences in methodology among the polls. Polls tightened significantly in the last two weeks of the campaign with several showing the race tied or within the margin of error.
Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ralph
Northam 		Ed
Gillespie 		Cliff
Hyra 		OtherUndecided
November 2–5, 20171,239 LV± 2.5%48%43%3%1%7%
November 2–5, 20171,450 RV± 2.5%45%41%3%1%9%
November 2–5, 2017800± 3.5%45%44%3%–4%
November 2–5, 2017800± 3.5%47%46%––4%
November 2–5, 2017713± 3.7%47%45%3%1%5%
November 1–5, 2017800± 3.5%48%47%———
November 1–5, 20173,648± 2.8%52%46%2%–0%
October 30 – November 5, 20171,056± 3.9%51%42%3%–4%
November 2–4, 2017810± 3.4%49%46%1%–4%
October 29 – November 4, 2017839± 3.5%51%45%2%–2%
October 31 – November 3, 2017875± 3.5%45%45%2%2%6%
October 30 – November 3, 20171,143± 2.9%48%43%3%–6%
November 1–2, 20171,600± 2.4%37%40%––23%
October 31 – November 2, 20171,200± 3.3%49%48%1%–2%
October 30 – November 2, 2017800± 3.5%43%45%2%–7%
October 30 – November 2, 2017800± 3.5%43%46%––7%
October 29 – November 2, 2017985± 3.0%43%40%2%–14%
October 29 – November 2, 2017781± 3.5%47%47%3%–3%
October 30 – November 1, 2017500± 4.4%47%43%2%–6%
October 26–29, 2017921 LV± 4.0%49%44%4%–3%
October 26–29, 20171,000 RV± 3.5%46%39%5%–5%
October 25–29, 2017916± 4.2%53%36%3%–7%
October 24–26, 2017600 LV± 4.0%44%44%3%–7%
October 23–26, 2017800 LV± 3.5%43%45%––9%
October 20–25, 2017812± 3.8%50%43%3%–4%
October 15–25, 2017397± 4.9%49%46%5%––
October 18–22, 2017750± 4.2%33%41%––27%
October 15–17, 2017697 LV± 3.5%49%42%1%2%5%
October 15–17, 2017815 RV± 3.0%45%42%2%2%6%
October 12–17, 20171,088± 3.7%53%39%2%–5%
October 12–16, 2017408± 4.9%47%48%3%–3%
October 9–13, 2017642± 4.2%48%44%3%–5%
October 8–13, 2017607± 4.0%50%44%2%–4%
October 5–7, 2017318± 5.5%49%44%2%–5%
October 2–6, 2017928± 4.3%49%42%3%–6%
September 28 – October 2, 2017720 LV± 4.5%53%40%4%–2%
September 28 – October 2, 20171,000 RV± 3.5%48%38%5%–5%
September 24–28, 2017631± 4.2%46%44%3%––
September 21–25, 2017499± 4.4%49%44%2%<1%4%
September 21–23, 2017849± 3.8%43%40%4%–13%
September 16–23, 2017596± 4.0%47%43%5%–5%
September 12–22, 2017776± 3.7%47%41%4%–8%
September 17–18, 2017500 LV± 4.5%42%41%2%2%12%
September 17–18, 2017507 RV± 4.0%42%38%2%2%13%
September 14–18, 2017850± 4.2%51%41%3%–5%
September 12–18, 20171,000± 3.8%45%41%4%–10%
September 13–17, 2017500± 4.4%42%42%3%–12%
September 10–15, 2017625± 4%44%43%2%–11%
September 5–12, 2017562 LV± 5.2%44%39%3%1%11%
September 5–12, 2017867 RV± 4.1%40%35%5%–16%
August 12–19, 2017599± 4.0%43%36%4%–17%
August 3–8, 20171,082± 3.8%44%38%4%1%11%
July 17–25, 2017538 LV± 5.1%42%37%6%–13%
July 17–25, 2017707 RV± 4.5%39%33%8%–16%
July 20–23, 2017502± 4.4%44%44%3%<1%9%
June 15–20, 20171,145± 3.8%47%39%–2%9%
June 14–16, 2017500± 4.4%46%46%––8%
June 6–8, 2017600± 4.0%45%46%––9%
May 9–14, 20171,602± 3.0%49%38%––9%
April 6–10, 20171,115± 2.9%44%33%–1%19%
March 16–26, 2017831± 3.7%39%40%–2%19%
March 14–19, 20173,097± 1.6%40%42%––18%
February 10–15, 2017989± 3.1%41%35%–3%22%
January 5–10, 2017625± 4.0%41%44%––15%
December 11–13, 2016500± 4.4%43%38%––17%
December 6–11, 20161,098± 3.0%38%34%–1%26%
September 6–12, 2016685 LV± 4.4%36%43%–1%16%
September 6–12, 2016852 RV± 3.9%36%41%–1%18%
September 9–11, 2016878± 3.3%37%37%––26%
June 13–15, 20161,032± 3.1%36%37%––28%
May 24, 20161,728± 2.0%38%40%––22%
November 4–9, 2015656 LV± 4.3%32%44%–1%16%
November 4–9, 2015814 RV± 3.9%33%40%–1%18%
July 13–15, 20151,170± 2.9%30%40%––32%


;Hypothetical polling		-------

Fundraising

Virginia election laws allow for unlimited campaign contributions in state and local elections.
According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Northam's top five donors are the Democratic Governors Association's super PAC DGA Action; Michael Bloomberg's Everytown for Gun Safety group; the Virginia League of Conservation Voters; Michael D. Bills; and the Laborers' International Union of North America.
Gillespie's top five donors are the Republican Governors Association; A Stronger Virginia; Let's Grow Virginia; Marlene Ricketts; and Dwight Schar.
Hyra's top five donors are Michael Chastain; Hyra himself; the Libertarian Party of Virginia; Paradise Indian Restaurant; and nine donors who have given the same amount.

Results

Even though polls in the weeks before the election showed a highly competitive race, some even showing Gillespie ahead, Northam won by a larger margin than expected, about nine percent, and more than 200,000 votes. Gillespie was unable to come back from the large margins in the suburbs of Washington, D.C. and Virginia Beach, and he conceded to Northam at 8:56 PM EST.

Results by county and city


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