2018 Quebec general election


The 2018 Quebec general election was held on October 1, 2018, to elect members to the National Assembly of Quebec. The election saw a landslide victory for the Coalition Avenir Québec led by François Legault won 74 of 125 seats, giving the party a majority and unseating the Quebec Liberal Party. The Liberals became the Official Opposition with 31 seats.
This election was the first won by the CAQ, which had previously been the third party in the legislature. It was also the first since 1966 that had been won by a party other than the Liberals or Parti Québécois. Legault is the province's first centre-right premier since the Union Nationale left office in 1970.

Background

In Quebec the Liberal Party had held power since 2003, save for a period of less than two years in 2012.
The National Assembly has had a fixed four-year term since passing a fixed election date law in 2013. The law stipulates that "the general election following the end of a Legislature shall be held on the first Monday of October of the fourth calendar year following the year that includes the last day of the previous Legislature", setting the date for October 1, 2018. However, the Chief Electoral Officer could have changed the election date in the event of a natural disaster. Furthermore, the Lieutenant Governor could have called an election sooner should the Premier have requested one, or in the event the government had been dissolved by a motion of no confidence.

Results

The CAQ went into the election as the third party in the legislature, but won a decisive victory with 74 seats, exceeding all published opinion polling. The Liberals won 31 seats, Québec solidaire won 10 seats, and the Parti Québécois won only 10 seats. This is the second election in a row in which a government has been defeated after only one term.
The CAQ formed government for the first time, mainly by dominating its traditional heartlands of Capitale-Nationale, Chaudière-Appalaches and Centre-du-Québec, while winning sweeps or near-sweeps in Mauricie, Estrie, Lanaudière, Montérégie the Laurentides and northern Quebec. Many of their gains came at the expense of the PQ. The CAQ took a number of seats that had been in PQ hands for four decades or more, in some cases by landslide margins. It did, however, win only two seats in Montreal.
The Parti Québécois came up two seats short of official status in the legislature. Notably, it was completely shut out in Montreal for the first time in decades; indeed, it won only one seat in the entire Greater Montreal area. It was easily the PQ's worst showing in a provincial election in 45 years. For the second election in a row, its leader was unseated in his own riding. According to a postmortem by The Globe and Mail, the PQ was so decisively beaten that there were already questions about whether it could survive. Echoing this, Christian Bourque of Montreal-based pollster Léger Marketing told The Guardian that he believed the PQ was likely finished in its present form, and would have to merge with another sovereigntist party to avoid fading into irrelevance.
The election was viewed as the Liberals' worst defeat since the 1976 election. While the party more than held its own in Montreal and Laval, it only won seven seats elsewhere.
This was the first election in which Québec Solidaire garnered seats outside Montreal.
The CAQ won 37.4 percent of the popular vote, a smaller vote share than the Liberals' 41 percent in 2014 and the lowest vote share on record for a party winning a majority government. However, due to the nature of the first-past-the-post system, which awards power solely on the basis of seats won, the CAQ's heavy concentration of support in the regions they dominated was enough for a strong majority of 11 seats. Quebec elections have historically seen large disparities between the raw vote and the actual seat count.
Following the elections, both Jean-François Lisée and Philippe Couillard resigned.

Summary analysis

Detailed analysis

Synopsis of riding results

Timeline

Party standings

Summary of the pre-election standings of the
National Assembly of Quebec
! rowspan="2" colspan="2" style="text-align:left;"|Party
! rowspan="2" style="text-align:left;"|Party leader
! colspan="2" style="text-align:center;"|Seats
!125 !!125

Seat changes (2014–2017)

Other developments

Incumbents not running for reelection

As of September 5, 2018, a total of 45 MNAs elected in 2014 will not run in the 2018 election, of whom 12 resigned from the National Assembly, one died in office and 32 announced that they will not seek re-election including one who got fired. The latter comprise the following:
At the end of his term, Gendron, Dean of the National Assembly, will have served for 41 years and 10 months, representing Abitibi-Ouest for 11 terms.

Campaign

Slogans

Issues

The election was believed to be the first in almost half a century that had not been fought on the issue of whether Quebec should stay in Canada. The PQ had promised not to hold another referendum on sovereignty until 2022 at the earliest had it won.
IssueQLPPQCAQQS
Economy and Public Finance
  • Have tabled five budgets since taking power in 2014; four of them have been balanced. The 2018 budget increased spending by 4.7 per cent, one of the highest increases in the past 20 years.
  • Plan to spend $440 million over the next five years encouraging entrepreneurship in the province.
  • Advocates economic nationalism. They want Quebec's pension fund manager — the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec — to help prevent corporate headquarters from leaving the province.
  • The party would also impose a 25 per cent-Quebec content requirement on all Caisse infrastructure projects.
  • Wants to limit the amount you can save on books, to protect small businesses.
  • CAQ Leader François Legault has promised to reduce the tax burden of Quebecers. A CAQ government, he says, will further harmonize school taxes across the province, a tax cut valued at $700 million.
  • A long-standing party proposal is to create a Quebec version of Silicon Valley, which they've dubbed "The Saint-Laurent Project". It envisions turning the Saint-Lawrence Valley into a hub of innovation and entrepreneurship, with the collaboration of universities.
  • Hoping to eliminate tens of thousands of jobs from the province's civil service.
  • Supports a $15/hour minimum wage, extending minimum vacation from two to four weeks and ending forced overtime.
  • The party platform mentions the possibility of nationalizing natural resources in the province, including the mining and forestry industries.
  • Will offer rebates on electric vehicles, and establish a ban on gas-powered vehicles by 2050.
    • Immigration
  • Endorsed a plan that will see Quebec accept between 49,000 and 53,000 immigrants in 2018.
  • Have promised to spend $25 million over the next four years to provide more French lessons for immigrants and help their integration in rural communities.
  • Believes 50,000 immigrants is too much for Quebec to accept each year. Lisée wants the auditor general to suggest a different figure.
  • Would ensure that 25 per cent of newcomers settle in rural communities.
  • The PQ also wants immigrants to have sufficient knowledge of French and Quebec values before arriving in the province. It is not clear if this would involve additional testing.
  • As premier, Legault says he would temporarily reduce the number of immigrants Quebec accepts annually from 50,000 to 40,000.
  • To qualify for a Quebec selection certificate, the CAQ wants immigrants to pass a values and language test. Immigrants would also have to prove they have been looking for employment.
  • Would create a network of resource centres for immigrants, in order to provide easier access to information about jobs and French lessons, among other things.
  • Has also promised to streamline the recognition of foreign credentials.
    • Health Care
  • The Couillard government passed two major health care reforms bills aimed at centralizing administration and boosting the number of people with a family doctor.
  • As part of the reforms, 1,400 health care managers were laid off. In 2013–2014, 65 per cent of Quebecers had a family doctor. That number rose to 75 per cent by 2016-2017.
  • Would reopen a recently signed agreement with province's medical specialists in order to cut their pay.
  • The party favours decentralizing health-care administration, while maintaining a universal free public health care system, Legault was quoted saying "The important thing is the universality of care. ... I do not want more private. Our public is a jewel of Quebec."
  • Like the PQ, the CAQ also vowed to renegotiate with the Quebec's medical specialists in order to cut their compensation by an average of $80,000 per year. Legault believes the specialists will be open to striking a new deal.
  • Would overhaul the province's longterm care system with a new network of smaller, more "humane" homes at an initial cost of $1 billion.
  • Have proposed a series of measures to reduce how much doctors are paid. Along with revisiting the medical-specialists deal, they want to prevent doctors from incorporating and limit fee-for-service billing.
  • The party maintains the vast majority of family medicine groups are for-profit enterprises. QS wants to force them to register as non-profits in order to receive public funds.
    • Education
  • Increased education system spending by 1.2 and 0.2 per cent, respectively, in the first two years of their mandate. Experts say annual increases of between three and four per cent were necessary to keep pace with inflation.
  • Tabled a plan in 2017 to boost the high school graduation rate from 68 per cent to 85 per cent by 2030, and hired 1,500 education professionals last year.
  • Promised to fix up schools and add physical activity and coding classes.
  • Has promised to gradually move toward free CEGEP and university tuition, beginning with low-income students. This measure, they estimate, will cost $400 million.
  • Will reduce funding for English-language CEGEPs in order to offer better quality English-language instruction in French CEGEPs.
  • Will provide affordable lunches for elementary school students at a cost of $39 million as well as cheaper school supplies, by having schools make bulk purchases on parents' behalf.
  • Wants to abolish school boards and replace them with service centres that would provide administrative support to schools. The party believes this would give schools greater autonomy and make the education system cheaper to run.
  • Wants to increase the mandatory age of staying in school to 18, to reduce the drop out rate.
  • Wants added homework help, extracurricular activities, additional funding for career guidance and tutors assigned to more vulnerable students.
  • Free education for all people living in the province, from daycare through to university. The party estimates that providing free education for Quebecers between the ages of 0-17 will cost the government $950 million annually.
    • Child Care and families
  • Offer free educational services for four-year olds in government-subsidized daycare and child care centres. They estimate this will cost Quebec an additional $250 million.
  • Families with children under 18 will get an extra $150 to $300 — per child, per year and tax-free — depending on family income.
  • Promise to cancel progressive pricing of subsidized daycare places. First child would cost $8.05/day, regardless of income. Second child: $4/day. Third would be free. Day care would also be free for families with revenue under $34,000.
  • The CAQ is also proposing to do away with progressive daycare pricing, though over a period of four years. All Quebec parents would be charged the same daily rate, regardless of their annual income.
  • Are proposing free daycare as part of their plan to offer free education between the ages of 0 and 17.
    • Identity, diversity, and secularism
  • Passed a religious neutrality law last year. The law requires, among other things, that people show their faces when either giving or receiving public services. This provision has been suspended pending a court decision on the law's constitutionality.
  • Couillard believes local police forces should decide whether women officers can wear the hijab.
  • Believes judges, prosecutors, prison guards and police should not be allowed to display religious symbols, such as wearing a hijab. They want the same prohibition to apply to all newly hired pre-school, elementary and high school teachers.
  • Opposes the wearing of religious symbols, including the hijab, by police officers and others who wield coercive state power. The party would also ban school teachers from wearing religious symbols.
  • Would pass a "Secularism Charter" to reduce the scope of religious accommodations available to civil servants.
  • Opposes the wearing of religious symbols, including the hijab, by police officers and others who hold coercive state power.
  • Believes citizens should be able to wear religious symbols and still access public services.
    • Sovereignty
  • Couillard is a well-known ardent federalist. He's expressed his desire to have Quebec sign the constitution, outlined in a 200-page document called "Quebecers: Our Way of Being Canadians".
  • While the party remains committed to Quebec independence, Lisée has promised not to hold a referendum on sovereignty in the first mandate of a PQ government. The earliest one would be held, he says, is 2022.
  • Calls itself nationalist. It wants more power for Quebec, but within Canada. Legault, a former PQ cabinet minister, has promised a CAQ government will never hold a referendum on Quebec sovereignty.
  • Legault wants to seek additional powers for Quebec, including control over immigration, increased fiscal capacity and a say in the nomination of Supreme Court justices. Some of these measures would require re-opening the Constitution.
  • Advocates independence. A QS government would organize elections for a constituent assembly, which would draft a constitution for an independent Quebec. That constitution would be put to a referendum.
    • Environment
  • Couillard has promised to spend an additional $2.9 billion by 2023 on sustainable mobility.
  • Supports existing cap-and-trade system designed to reduce greenhouse gases.
  • Would ban all new fossil fuel projects and existing projects would be subject to stricter oversight.
  • The Caisse de dépôt, Quebec's pension fund, would be instructed to divest from fossil fuel exploration, production and pipeline companies.
  • Supports international greenhouse gas reduction targets and would promote "technological innovations to ensure their achievement".
  • An ambitious program with the goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 95 per cent in the next 30 years.
  • More sustainable waste management, including prohibiting the use of certain toxic products. Institute a "polluter pays" policy when it comes to waste.

    • Opinion polls

    Candidates

    [Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean], [Côte-Nord] and [Nord-du-Québec]

    Cristina Roos

    [Capitale-Nationale]

    [Mauricie]

    [Estrie]

    Montréal">Montréal (region)">Montréal

    East

    West

    [Outaouais] and [Abitibi-Témiscamingue]

    [Chaudière-Appalaches] and [Centre-du-Québec]

    Laval">Laval, Quebec">Laval

    [Lanaudière]

    [Laurentides]

    [Montérégie]

    Eastern

    South Shore