2018 United States Senate election in Tennessee


The 2018 United States Senate election in Tennessee took place on November 6, 2018, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Bob Corker opted to retire instead of running for a third term. Republican U.S. Representative Marsha Blackburn won the open seat, defeating former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

On September 26, 2017, Republican Senator Bob Corker announced that he would not seek reelection in 2018. Without Corker running, it was widely believed that the Republican Party would have a much harder time keeping the seat. Many called on Corker to reverse his decision to retire. Former U.S. Representative Fincher dropped out of the race, calling on Corker to jump back in and challenge U.S. Representative Blackburn for the GOP nomination. Fincher said in a statement that the GOP should unite "behind a candidate who can win" the general election. Blackburn said she would remain in the race even if Corker reversed his decision. Amid the speculation about Corker's decision, many of Tennessee's Republican politicians, including many in the Tennessee General Assembly, reiterated their support for Blackburn. Corker's chief of staff announced on February 27, 2018, that Corker would stick with his plan to retire.

Endorsements

Polling

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Independents

The election was expected to be among the most competitive Senate races in 2018. Corker's retirement and Bredesen's entry into the race made it one of the few potential offensive opportunities for Democrats. On November 1, 2018, incumbent Bob Corker announced that he would not endorse either Blackburn or Bredesen; he added that either candidate would be a good senator for Tennessee.
Polls showed the race to be close until the confirmation hearings for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh in September and October, which many Tennesseans believed the Democratic Party handled poorly. This is believed to have mobilized Republican voters and cost Bredesen any chance of winning. Bredesen also announced his support for Kavanaugh, which some believe may have cost him supporters.

Predictions

Debates

Fundraising

Polling

Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Marsha
Blackburn 		Phil
Bredesen 		OtherUndecided
October 28–31, 2018480–49%49%–2%
October 28–30, 2018621± 4.0%52%44%2%3%
October 27–30, 2018718 LV± 3.5%50%41%3%5%
October 27–30, 2018850 RV± 3.0%48%40%3%8%
October 27–29, 2018780± 3.5%53%47%––
October 24–29, 2018764 LV± 4.3%49%45%0%3%
October 24–29, 2018871 RV± 4.0%47%46%0%4%
October 22–29, 2018495± 4.4%44%44%––
October 26–27, 2018497± 4.4%51%45%1%4%
October 23–27, 2018471 LV± 5.7%51%46%1%3%
October 23–27, 2018764 RV± 4.4%49%46%1%3%
October 8–13, 2018800± 4.9%43%44%1%8%
October 9–12, 2018558 LV–52%48%––
October 9–12, 2018801 RV–44%45%–11%
October 8–11, 2018593± 4.2%54%40%–6%
October 4–11, 20181,108± 3.4%47%44%3%6%
October 2–5, 2018871± 3.6%50%42%2%6%
September 29 – October 2, 2018666 LV± 3.5%48%43%3%7%
September 29 – October 2, 2018806 RV± 3.5%47%41%3%8%
September 23–25, 2018600± 4.0%45%47%––
September 9–24, 20181,609± 3.3%42%42%–15%
September 16–18, 2018567± 4.1%49%51%––
September 11–15, 2018723 LV± 4.3%45%50%0%3%
September 11–15, 2018852 RV± 3.9%42%50%0%5%
September 10–12, 20181,038± 3.0%48%45%–7%
September 8–11, 2018686 LV± 3.5%47%44%1%8%
September 8–11, 2018809 RV± 3.5%45%43%2%9%
August 25–28, 2018538 LV± 5.1%46%48%<1%5%
August 25–28, 2018730 RV± 4.5%44%48%<1%7%
August 9–11, 2018620± 3.9%48%44%–8%
July 11–14, 2018657± 4.1%37%43%5%17%
July 10–11, 2018583± 4.1%41%44%–15%
July 9–11, 2018551± 4.2%38%35%–11%
June 11 – July 2, 20181,010± 4.5%55%41%–4%
April 30 – May 1, 2018609± 4.0%43%46%––
April 2–23, 20181,638± 4.0%47%48%–5%
April 17–19, 2018625± 4.0%43%46%–11%
April 9–11, 2018601± 4.0%41%51%–8%
March 22–29, 2018600± 4.0%35%45%–17%
March 15–16, 20181,014± 3.1%41%46%–13%
February 13–15, 2018500± 4.4%44%39%–17%
January 26–29, 2018––45%47%–8%
January 21–24, 20181,003± 3.1%51%40%–10%
December 13–14 and 17, 2017500± 4.4%43%34%–23%
December 11–12, 2017563± 4.1%40%42%–18%
October 20–22, 2017601± 4.1%41%46%–13%

Hypothetical polling-------

;with generic Republican and generic Democrat

Results

On November 6, 2018, Blackburn defeated Bredesen in the general election, carrying all but three counties, the largest number of counties ever won in an open senate election in Tennessee. Although polls began to show the race in Blackburn's favor following the Kavanaugh hearings, Blackburn won by a larger margin than all but one poll showed.
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