2018 United States Senate election in Texas


The 2018 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 6, 2018, along with other elections to the United States Senate and the United States House of Representatives in additional states. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Ted Cruz ran successfully for re-election to a second term against Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke. The primary for all parties was held on March 6, 2018, making it the first primary of the 2018 season. As Cruz and O'Rourke both won majorities in their primaries, they did not participate in the May 22 runoff primary that was held for some nominations in Texas.
No Democrat has won a general election for statewide office in Texas since Bob Bullock was reelected as lieutenant governor in 1994, with election forecasters declaring it a safe Republican seat at the beginning of the 2018 cycle. However, O'Rourke gradually closed the gap, and leading up to the election, the race was considered unexpectedly competitive.
On Election Day, Cruz defeated O'Rourke by a margin of 50.9 to 48.3 percent; the race was the closest U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1978. O'Rourke earned over four million votes, surpassing Hillary Clinton's total of 3.87 million in the 2016 election. He received more votes than any other Democrat in Texas history and came closer to winning than any other Democratic U.S. Senate candidate in Texas has since 1988. O'Rourke raised $80 million for the campaign, which is the highest amount ever raised by a U.S. Senate candidate to date.

Background

In 2012, after a stunning upset victory in the Republican primary, then-Solicitor General of Texas Ted Cruz defeated then Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst by a 16-point margin. Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988. As conservatives began turning to the Republican Party in once strongly Democratic areas, Democratic voters became concentrated in Southern Texas and large metropolitan cities, such as Houston, Austin, San Antonio, and Dallas, as well as the far western majority-minority city of El Paso, which O'Rourke represented in the U.S. House.
Since 1990, Texas has voted for Republican statewide candidates in all elections, whether it be presidential, gubernatorial, or senatorial, often by large margins. In 1998, Governor George W. Bush won re-election by 37 points over his Democratic challenger, Garry Mauro. In 2004, President Bush won Texas over Senator John Kerry by 23 points, winning rural areas by landslide margins and capturing urban zones. Democrat Barack Obama was defeated by margins of 12 points in 2008, against John McCain, and 16 points in 2012, against Mitt Romney, respectively. However, in 2016, Donald Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton by only a 9-point margin, demonstrating a possible shift away from the Safe Republican status it had held for over a decade. This has led Democrats to begin targeting Texas as a potential future swing state. It should also be noted that Ted Cruz defeated Donald Trump in the Texas Republican primary for U.S. President in 2016.
As of June 2018, Senator Cruz held a 49%–44% approval rating among Texans in a state Donald Trump won by 9 points against Hillary Clinton in 2016. Among groups that tend to affiliate themselves more with the Democratic Party, Senator Cruz held a 29% approval rating among Hispanics, 37% among females, and 42% among college-educated voters.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Polling


Hypothetical polling		-------

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Polling

Results

Libertarian nomination

Candidates

Nominated

  • Neal Dikeman, businessman

    Independents

Candidates

Declared

  • Carl Bible, nurse
  • Jonathan Jenkins, tech entrepreneur
  • Bob McNeil, businessman

    Declined

  • Matthew Dowd, former strategist for President George W. Bush

    General election

Predictions

;Notes

Debates

  • , September 21, 2018
  • , October 16, 2018

    Endorsements

Fundraising

In the third quarter of 2018, O'Rourke raised $38.1 million. To date, this amount is the largest quarterly total raised by a U.S. Senate candidate in history. Cruz and O'Rourke combined to raise a record-setting total of $114.8 million during the 2018 campaign.

Polling


Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Ted
Cruz 		Beto
O'Rourke 		Neal
Dikeman 		OtherUndecided
November 3–5, 20182,135± 2.1%52%43%–1%4%
November 1–2, 20181,211–49%49%1%––
October 28–30, 2018781± 3.7%50%47%1%–2%
October 22–28, 20181,078± 3.5%51%46%–1%3%
October 15–28, 2018905 LV–47%43%–4%6%
October 15–28, 20181,033 RV± 3.0%47%42%–4%8%
October 25–26, 2018588± 4.0%52%42%––5%
October 18–21, 20181,000± 4.0%50%46%2%–2%
October 15–21, 2018927± 3.2%51%45%2%2%–
October 12–18, 20181,298± 3.2%49%44%–3%1%
October 10–14, 2018600± 4.0%49%45%3%–3%
October 9–13, 2018716 LV± 4.5%52%45%–0%2%
October 9–13, 2018862 RV± 4.1%50%45%–0%3%
October 8–13, 2018801± 3.5%52%43%1%–4%
October 8–11, 2018800± 3.6%51%43%1%–5%
October 3–9, 2018730± 4.4%54%45%–0%2%
October 2–5, 2018881–50%44%–2%4%
October 1–5, 2018500± 4.5%47%42%–3%8%
September 19–20, 2018613± 4.0%48%45%––8%
September 19–20, 2018603± 4.0%49%46%––5%
September 16–18, 2018508± 4.4%50%50%–––
September 11–17, 2018807± 4.1%54%45%–0%1%
September 11–12, 20181,161± 3.0%49%45%––5%
September 6–14, 2018992± 4.0%45%47%–3%5%
September 6–9, 2018800± 4.0%47%44%–––
September 6–7, 2018519± 4.3%46%42%1%–11%
August 22–25, 2018550± 4.4%38%37%–4%21%
August 12–16, 2018759± 3.8%49%45%–1%6%
August 1–2, 2018797± 3.5%46%42%–––
July 26–31, 20181,118± 3.5%49%43%–0%6%
July 9–26, 2018441 LV± 4.7%41%39%1%–19%
July 9–26, 2018806 RV± 3.5%36%34%3%–24%
July 3–7, 2018602± 4.0%51%42%––7%
June 19–22, 2018821 LV–50%40%–3%7%
June 19–22, 20181,025 RV± 3.6%44%36%–3%13%
June 8–17, 20181,200± 2.8%41%36%2%3%17%
May 29 – June 5, 20181,000± 3.1%49%43%––8%
May 23–29, 2018961± 3.8%50%39%–0%9%
May 21–28, 2018601± 4.1%48%36%3%1%11%
May 21–22, 2018861± 3.3%48%42%––10%
May 19–21, 2018575± 4.1%47%40%–6%7%
April 12–17, 20181,029± 3.6%47%44%–1%8%
January 17–18, 2018757± 3.6%45%37%––18%
December 12–14, 2017600± 4.0%52%34%–1%13%
April 3–9, 20171,000± 3.1%30%30%–3%37%


Hypothetical polling		-------

Results

On November 6, 2018, Ted Cruz defeated Beto O'Rourke. However, O'Rourke gave Democrats their best performance in a Texas statewide election since Ann Richards was elected governor in 1990. In addition, O'Rourke flipped several counties in Texas that Donald Trump carried in 2016, including Williamson, historically conservative Tarrant, Jefferson, Nueces, sparsely populated Brewster, and Hays. Cruz only flipped one county that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, sparsely populated Kenedy.

By congressional district

Cruz won 20 of 36 congressional districts
DistrictCruzO'RourkeRepresentative
71%28%Louie Gohmert
50%49%Ted Poe
50%49%Dan Crenshaw
51%48%Sam Johnson
51%48%Van Taylor
74%25%John Ratcliffe
60%39%Jeb Hensarling
60%39%Lance Gooden
51%48%Joe Barton
51%48%Ron Wright
46%53%John Culberson
46%53%Lizzie Fletcher
71%28%Kevin Brady
19%80%Al Green
49.4%49.6%Michael McCaul
78%21%Mike Conaway
60%39%Kay Granger
79%20%Mac Thornberry
58%41%Randy Weber
42%57%Vicente Gonzalez
26%73%Beto O'Rourke
26%73%Veronica Escobar
54%45%Bill Flores
20%79%Sheila Jackson Lee
71%28%Jodey Arrington
33%66%Joaquín Castro
49.6%49.5%Lamar Smith
49.6%49.5%Chip Roy
49.9%49.3%Pete Olson
47%52%Will Hurd
48%51%Kenny Marchant
52%47%Roger Williams
57%42%Michael Burgess
60%39%Michael Cloud
40%59%Henry Cuellar
25%74%Gene Green
25%74%Sylvia Garcia
18%82%Eddie Bernice Johnson
50%48%John Carter
44%55%Pete Sessions
44%55%Colin Allred
22%77%Marc Veasey
42%58%Filemon Vela Jr.
27%72%Lloyd Doggett
71%28%Brian Babin

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