2019 Brandenburg state election


The 2019 Brandenburg state election was held on 1 September 2019 to elect the members of the 7th Landtag of Brandenburg. It took place on the same day as the 2019 Saxony state election. The incumbent government of the Social Democratic Party and The Left, led by Minister-President Dietmar Woidke, was defeated. Both parties suffered significant losses, as did the Christian Democratic Union. Alternative for Germany doubled its number of seats and moved into second place. The Greens also made gains, as did the Free Voters.
After the election, the SPD formed a government with the CDU and Greens. Woidke was subsequently re-elected as Minister-President.

Background

Since German reunification, the SPD has been the strongest party in Brandenburg on a state level, and has held the office of Minister-President continuously.
The SPD and Left formed a coalition government after the 2009 state election, which was renewed after the 2014 state election. In the 2019 European Parliament election in Germany, AfD was the strongest party in Brandenburg on 19.9%, ahead of the CDU and SPD.

Electoral system

In principle, the Landtag consists of 88 members. 44 are elected by plurality vote in single-member constituencies, and the remainder are filled by party-list proportional representation. The seats are distributed according to the largest remainder method. Only parties whose share of second votes exceeds the 5% electoral threshold or which have won a direct mandate are allocated seats. Overhang and leveling seats can expand the Landtag to a maximum size of 110 seats. This is detailed in the Brandenburg State Electoral Act.
According to the state constitution and the state election law, the election date must be a Sunday or a public holiday, at the earliest 57 months and at the latest 60 months after the beginning of the election period. In 2019, the date was set for 1 September 2019.
The minimum voting age is 16 years.

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 6th Landtag of Brandenburg.

Opinion polls

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		SPDCDULinkeAfDGrüneFDPBVB/FWOthersLead
Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		OthersLead
1 Sep 2019–26.215.610.723.510.84.15.04.12.7
26–29 Aug 20191,6532216.5142114.55431
31 Jul–28 Aug 20192,46020.317.915.520.314.84.9–6.3Tie
19–26 Aug 20191,0192117152114552Tie
19–22 Aug 20191,11221181420145441
19–21 Aug 20191,0022218152212542Tie
16 Jul–13 Aug 20192,98118.217.114.721.017.25.5–6.33.2
25 Jul–5 Aug 20191,00917181421165453
19 Jun–17 Jul 20192,89517.216.316.921.315.15.2–8.04.1
24 Jun–1 Jul 20191,0011918161916633Tie
15 May–12 Jun 20193,00721.416.319.519.612.04.3–6.91.8
3–6 Jun 20191,00018171421175443
13–28 May 20191,0111920182012533Tie
2019 European election26 May 2019–17.218.012.319.912.34.42.213.71.9
19 Mar–16 Apr 20191,38023.019.916.820.99.24.4–5.82.1
2–6 Apr 20191,00022201619125–62
End Jan–22 Feb 20195,95521.822.120.018.87.04.4–5.90.3
28 Jan–4 Feb 20191,0062121171910543Tie
17–20 Dec 20181,00520191720125–7Tie
19 Nov–6 Dec 20181,00623211821103–42
12–17 Sep 20181,0002321172375–4Tie
10–17 Aug 20181,0482318182185432
11–16 Apr 20181,0002323172274–4Tie
7–11 Nov 20171,0052322172067–51
7–9 Nov 20171,0022522181865–63
2017 federal election24 Sep 2017–17.626.717.220.25.07.11.25.16.5
15–19 Jun 20171,0002825181563–53
9–13 Jan 20171,0033021151874–59
24–28 Nov 20161,000302517166––65
20–26 Sep 20161,0013017172064–610
19–23 May 20161,002292317206––56
14–17 Mar 20161,0033119161973–512
9–17 Dec 20151,002362118116––815
12–16 Nov 20151,000332319136––610
Sep 20151,00235242077––711
5–8 Feb 20151,000342519105––79
Dec 20141,00134221988––912
2014 state election14 Sep 2014–31.923.018.612.26.21.52.75.58.9

Results

By early afternoon, significantly more people had voted than at the same time in the 2014 election. According to the state election director, 31.3% of voters cast their ballots by 2:00 PM. At the time in 2014, the figure was only 22.4%.

Government formation

The governing SPD and Die Linke both suffered losses, bringing an end to their coalition. Incumbent Minister-President Woidke invited all parties except AfD to coalition negotiations as his party remained the largest bloc. The CDU expressed interest in joining a so-called "Kenya coalition" with SPD and Greens, which would have 50 seats, and reiterated their refusal to govern with AfD. Woidke confirmed he called CDU leader Senftleben on election day to begin discussions, but expressed reservations about the party's poor performance under pressure from the right. He also did not rule out the possibility of a red-red-green coalition with Die Linke and Greens, which would have a bare majority of 45 seats. Greens leader Nonnemacher expressed willingness to participate in either coalition, but made it clear her party would bring its own policy goals to the table and refuse to merely prop up the existing red-red coalition.
On November 16th, both the CDU and SPD voted in favor of a "Kenya coalition." The Greens approved the coalition on the 18th; Woidke was duly voted in for his second term as Minister-President two days later by a count of 47 to 37 with 3 abstentions. The coalition commands 50 seats.