2020 Bolivian general election
Snap general elections in Bolivia are scheduled to be held on 18 October 2020. Initially they were scheduled to be held on 3 May 2020, after the sequence of events that led to the installation of an interim government on 10 November 2019. However, they were postponed due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. All major parties agreed with this measure and that a date for the new election would be chosen by the legislative assembly based on a public health evaluation at a later date.
On 22 June 2020, Áñez approved a law passed by both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate to set a date for the election for 6 September 2020 with elected authorities in place by mid-to-late November 2020.
On 23 July 2020, TSE announced that the election will be postponed to 18 October 2020 due to medical reports that the pandemic will have its highest peaks in late August and early September. Many opposition leaders, including Morales, have condemned the delays, seeing the continued delays as an unconstititional attempt to remain in power, and some groups, including the Bolivian Workers' Center have planned protests.
Background
On 10 November 2019, after 19 days of civil protests following the disputed election results of October 2019 and the release of a report from the OAS, which alleged irregularities in the electoral process, the military and the police of Bolivia forced president Evo Morales to resign. After General Williams Kaliman made the military's request for Morales's resignation public, Morales complied, accompanied by other resignations by high-level politicians throughout the day, some citing fears for the safety of their families. The government of Mexico offered political asylum to Morales the following day, which Morales accepted a day afterwards.As Vice-President Álvaro García Linera, President of the Senate Adriana Salvatierra and President of the Chamber of Deputies Víctor Borda, had already resigned, there existed no explicitly constitutionally-designated successors. Furthermore, the First Vice President of the Senate, Rubén Medinaceli, had also resigned. This left Jeanine Áñez, the Second Vice President of the Senate, as the highest-ranking official still in office and prompted her to announce that she would be willing to ascend to the presidency on an interim basis in order to call for new elections. Thus, on 12 November 2019 Áñez took temporary charge of the Senate of Bolivia, thereby formally placing herself in the line of succession as acting President of the Senate, and on this basis proceeded to declare herself the Constitutional President of the country. Her accession to office was formally legitimized by a decision of the Plurinational Constitutional Tribunal later the same day, which stated that she had lawfully assumed office ipso facto, in accordance with the precedent laid out by Constitutional Declaration 0003/01 of 31 July 2001.
On 20 November, Evo Morales offered to not run as a presidential candidate if he was allowed to return to Bolivia and conclude his term.
The same day, the interim government presented a bill that aimed to forge a path to new elections. The two chambers of congress were expected to debate the bill which would annul the 20 October election and appoint a new electoral board within 15 days of its passage, paving the way for a new vote. The bill, drafted jointly by Morales' Movement for Socialism and anti-Morales legislators, was approved on 23 November; it also prohibited Morales from participating in the fresh election. In exchange, Áñez's government agreed to withdraw the armed forces from all protest areas, revoke her decree which granted the army immunity from criminal prosecution, release arrested pro-Morales protesters, protect lawmakers and social leaders from attacks and provide compensation for the families of those killed during the crisis. She approved the bill shortly thereafter.
On 5 December, Áñez stated that she would not be a candidate or support any candidate. This was further reiterated on 15 January 2020 by Minister for the Presidency :w:es:Yerko Núñez|Yerko Núñez, who said that " will not be a candidate. The President has stated on several occasions, she will not be a candidate, this is a government of peace, transition, and management because you can not stop the state apparatus."
However, despite her previous statements, Áñez announced her candidacy on 24 January 2020. A survey reported in the Bolivian newspaper Los Tiempos indicated that, while 43% of respondents considered her to have done a "good or very good" job as interim president, only 24% of respondents believed that she should stand as a candidate in the upcoming elections. In the same poll, 63% of respondents agreed with the statement that "as interim president, Jeanine Áñez should call elections and not take advantage of her power to become a presidential candidate."
Electoral system
The President of Bolivia is elected using a modified two-round system: a candidate is declared the winner if they receive more than 50% of the vote, or over 40% of the vote and are 10 percentage points ahead of their closest rival. If neither condition is met, a run-off election is held between the two top candidates.Presidential candidates
As of 28 January 2020, ten candidates had officially stated their intention to run for the presidency.On 18 January 2020, the Unity Pact of MAS bases elected David Choquehuanca and Andrónico Rodríguez as presidential and vice-presidential candidates. On 19 January, Evo Morales announced that Luis Alberto Arce Catacora and David Choquehuanca would be the party's presidential and vice presidential candidates. This was following a vote by those members of MAS leadership present in Buenos Aires the previous day. This difference caused some friction among different sections of the MAS bases, including the Barolina Sisa and Tupac Katari Federation who rejected these selections. On 21 January, the Central Obrera Boliviana supplied a third candidacy combination of Choquehuanca paired with Orlando Gutiérrez. MAS President of the Senate, Eva Copa, said the matter was not yet closed and would be decided by a further meeting of the Unity Pact. On 23 January, the Unity Pact ratified the Arce-Choquehuanca ticket chosen in Buenos Aires. On 24 January, a new right-wing political alliance called "We Believe" was formed, and endorsed the Camacho-:w:es:Marco Pumari|Pumariticket. By the registration deadline, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal announced that five policial coalitions had been registered. However, on 31 January the TSE announced that the coalition "United People" had been disqualified after not submitting the required documents.
In July 2020, a lawsuit was filed by four separate political parties with the Supreme Electoral Court asking it to disqualify Arce from from standing in the presidential election. The lawsuit stated Arce had released an opinion poll on the presidential race outside the time frame allowed. The Morning Star newspaper reported that the suit may also be seeking to have MAS disbanded and its status as a legal political party annulled. In 2015, a similar complaint was filed against Ernesto Suárez, leader of the opposition UD bench in the Department of Beni, regarding release of polls by outgoing governor campaign manager Carmelo Lens. This resulted in Suárez and 227 other UD canditates having their legal status cancelled and removed from the election. At the time, Suárez was three points ahead of the MAS candidate for governor, Álex Ferrier.
Opinion polls
First round
;2020;2019
| Poll source | Date administered | MAS Candidate | Carlos Mesa | Jeanine Áñez | Luis F. Camacho | Chi Hyun Chung | :w:es:Marco Pumari|Marco Pumari | :w:es:Óscar Ortiz Antelo|Ortiz Antelo | Félix Patzi | Doria Medina | Jorge Quiroga | Johnny Fernandez | Other | Would not vote | Undecided |
| Poll source | Date administered | Other | Would not vote | Undecided | |||||||||||
| December 21–30, 2019 | 20.7% | 13.8% | 15.6% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.2% | - | - | 1.8% | 1.6% | - | 0.9% | 10.2% | 12.2% | |
| Mercados y Muestras SRL | December 13–16, 2019 | 23% | 21% | - | 13% | 9% | 10% | - | - | - | 2% | - | - | 14% | 8% |
| Captura Consulting | December 5–15, 2019 | 18.4% | 11.9% | 7.5% | 12.8% | 8.5% | - | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 21.8% |
| Captura Consulting | December 5–15, 2019 | 12.0% | 13.7% | 10.0% | - | 9.4% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 23.3% |
| Captura Consulting | December 5–15, 2019 | 13.6% | 10.6% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | - | 11.0% | 3.0% | 17.6% |
| November 26–27, 2019 | 16% | 14% | - | 16% | 10% | 16% | - | - | - | - | - | 8% | 8% | 12% |
Second round
;Arce v. Áñez| Poll source | Date administered | Arce | Áñez | Would not vote | Undecided |
| Poll source | Date administered | Would not vote | Undecided | ||
| March 5–11, 2020 | 43.2% | 42.6% | 8.3% | 6% | |
| February 14–17, 2020 | 36% | 48% | 12% | 4% | |
| February 7–13, 2020 | 42.3% | 43.6% | 10.6% | 3.5% |
;Arce v. Mesa
| Poll source | Date administered | Arce | Mesa | Would not vote | Undecided |
| Poll source | Date administered | Would not vote | Undecided | ||
| March 5–11, 2020 | 42.9% | 41% | 10.4% | 5.7% | |
| February 14–17, 2020 | 37% | 48% | 11% | 4% | |
| February 7–13, 2020 | 40.8% | 40.7% | 15.2% | 3.3% |
;Arce v. Camacho
| Poll source | Date administered | Arce | Camacho | Would not vote | Undecided |
| Poll source | Date administered | Would not vote | Undecided | ||
| March 5–11, 2020 | 46% | 42% | 16% | 5.9% | |
| February 14–17, 2020 | 40% | 37% | 19% | 4% | |
| February 7–13, 2020 | 44.5% | 33.6% | 18% | 3.9% |
;Mesa v. Áñez
| Poll source | Date administered | Mesa | Áñez | Would not vote | Undecided |
| Poll source | Date administered | Would not vote | Undecided | ||
| March 5–11, 2020 | 32.6% | 31.6% | 29.6% | 6.2% | |
| February 7–13, 2020 | 30.3% | 33.8% | 32.3% | 3.6% |
;Camacho v. Áñez
| Poll source | Date administered | Camacho | Áñez | Would not vote | Undecided |
| Poll source | Date administered | Would not vote | Undecided | ||
| March 5–11, 2020 | 15.6% | 41.4% | 37.0% | 6% | |
| February 7–13, 2020 | 16.3% | 40.8% | 38.7% | 4.2% |