2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona


The 2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona will be held on November 3, 2020. Following the death in office of incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John McCain on August 25, 2018, Governor Doug Ducey was required by Arizona law to appoint a Republican to fill the vacant seat through the end of the term expiring in January 2023. On September 5, 2018, Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill McCain's seat. However, Kyl announced he would resign the following December 31.
On December 18, 2018, Ducey announced that outgoing U.S. Representative Martha McSally would be appointed to fill the seat following Kyl's resignation, which would trigger a special election. McSally was sworn in as the state's junior U.S. Senator on January 3, 2019, less than two months after she was defeated by Democrat Kyrsten Sinema for Arizona's Class I U.S. Senate seat. The primary is scheduled for August 4, 2020. McSally is running to complete the term, facing primary challenger Daniel McCarthy for the Republican nomination and former astronaut Mark Kelly, who is running uncontested to be the Democratic nominee.

Interim appointments

Appointees

Incumbent McSally faces one challenger: Daniel McCarthy, a skincare company executive. Upon his respective announcements, McCarthy's independent wealth was expected to set up a bruising and expensive primary campaign.

Candidates

Declared

Primary results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Presumptive nominee

Primary results

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Declared

Independents

Declared

Predictions

Endorsements

Polling

Aggregate polls

;with McSally and Kelly
Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mark
Kelly 		Martha
McSally 		Other /
Undecided
July 24–26, 2020365± 4.8%47%45%8%
July 19–23, 2020858± 3.2%53%35%12%
July 17–26, 2020908± 3.0%52%36%13%
July 18–24, 2020873± 3.8%50%43%7%
July 21–22, 2020816± 3.2%51%42%7%
July 14–22, 2020826± 4.1%53%41%6%
July 11–16, 2020700± 3.7%48%41%11%
July 10–12, 2020345± 4.6%52%45%3%
July 7–10, 20201,099± 3.8%46%42%12%
July 6–7, 2020600± 4.0%52%43%6%
June 27–29, 2020600± 4.0%50%43%7%
June 27, 2020527± 4.3%42%46%12%
June 26–28, 2020311± 5.8%53%44%3%
June 19–24, 2020800± 3.5%49%42%9%
June 20–23, 2020946± 3.2%50%42%8%
June 14–17, 2020865± 3.3%49%34%17%
June 8–16, 2020650± 4.3%47%38%16%
June 13–15, 20201,368± 2.9%51%42%7%
May 30 – June 2, 20201,002± 3.9%50%37%13%
May 18–22, 2020400± 4.9%51%41%8%
May 9–11, 2020600± 4.0%51%38%10%
April 7–8, 2020600± 4.0%51%42%7%
March 10–15, 20202,523± 2.7%48%45%7%
March 11–14, 2020847± 3.4%50%44%6%
March 6–11, 20201,036± 3.0%48%36%16%
March 3–4, 2020600± 4.0%49%42%8%
March 2–3, 2020666± 3.8%47%42%12%
February 7–9, 2020400± 4.9%46%39%15%
January 22–24, 20201,000± 3.1%45%47%8%
January 2–4, 2020760± 3.6%46%42%12%
December 3–4, 2019628± 3.9%47%44%9%
October 25–28, 2019904± 3.2%46%45%9%
September 27–28, 2019396± 3.3%47%45%8%
September 9–12, 2019520± 4.3%42%42%16%
August 13–14, 2019600± 4.0%46%41%13%
July 29–31, 2019600± 4.0%44%45%11%
May 1–2, 2019600± 4.0%44%45%10%
February 12–13, 2019600± 4.0%44%46%10%

;with McCarthy and Kelly
Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Daniel
McCarthy 		Mark
Kelly 		Other /
Undecided
June 20–23, 2020946± 3.2%44%50%6%

;with Ruben Gallego
Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Martha
McSally 		Ruben
Gallego 		Undecided
February 12–13, 2019600± 4.0%49%41%10%

;with Martha McSally and Generic Opponent
Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Martha
McSally 		Generic
Opponent		OtherUndecided
July 29–31, 2019600± 4.0%39%45%2%14%
January 24–25, 2019682–40%54%–6%

;with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll sourceDate
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Generic
Republican		Generic
Democrat		Other /
Undecided
Jan 22–24, 20201,000± 3.1%49%45%6%
July 29–31, 2019600± 4.0%42%43%14%
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Results