2024 European Parliament election
The next election to the European Parliament is scheduled to be held in 2024. This will be the first European Parliament election scheduled after the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union.
Popular vote and seat projections
There are no pan-European polls for the European elections. However, several organizations calculate the theoretical seat distribution in the European Parliament in advance to the EU election based on national polls in all member states. The table below displays these different projections. The projections prior to 31 January 2020 still include the United Kingdom, which left the EU on that date.Seats
The following table shows the projected number of seats for the groups in the EU Parliament.| Institute | Date | Scope | EPP | S&D | RE | ID | Greens/EFA | ECR | GUE/NGL | NI | Others |
| Institute | Date | Scope | Others | ||||||||
| Europe Elects | 2020-07-24 | EU27 | 198 | 133 | 97 | 77 | 48 | 71 | 54 | 24 | 3 |
| Europe Elects | 2020-05-28 | EU27 | 197 | 135 | 98 | 77 | 47 | 70 | 55 | 23 | 3 |
| Europe Elects | 2020-04-30 | EU27 | 193 | 140 | 94 | 78 | 46 | 72 | 55 | 23 | 4 |
| Europe Elects | 2020-03-31 | EU27 | 188 | 135 | 92 | 83 | 51 | 72 | 57 | 21 | 6 |
| Europe Elects | 2020-02-29 | EU27 | 184 | 133 | 99 | 85 | 55 | 68 | 56 | 21 | 6 |
| Europe Elects | 2020-01-31 | EU27 | 182 | 130 | 101 | 85 | 53 | 70 | 55 | 23 | 6 |
| Europe Elects | 2019-12-31 | EU27 | 182 | 131 | 102 | 86 | 52 | 70 | 54 | 25 | 3 |
| Europe Elects | 2019-12-31 | EU28 | 177 | 153 | 103 | 82 | 52 | 103 | 53 | 25 | 3 |
| Europe Elects | 2019-11-30 | EU28 | 176 | 157 | 107 | 80 | 61 | 95 | 49 | 25 | 1 |
| Europe Elects | 2019-10-31 | EU28 | 175 | 151 | 115 | 78 | 62 | 92 | 46 | 30 | 2 |
| Europe Elects | 2019-09-30 | EU28 | 170 | 151 | 118 | 79 | 63 | 87 | 48 | 32 | 3 |
| Europe Elects | 2019-08-31 | EU28 | 166 | 154 | 116 | 80 | 64 | 89 | 47 | 32 | 3 |
| Europe Elects | 2019-07-31 | EU28 | 168 | 153 | 117 | 79 | 65 | 85 | 48 | 33 | 3 |
| Europe Elects | 2019-06-30 | EU28 | 167 | 145 | 119 | 80 | 74 | 64 | 46 | 54 | 2 |
| post-Brexit EU Parliament | 2020-02-01 | EU27 | 187 | 148 | 97 | 76 | 68 | 62 | 40 | 27 | - |
| pre-Brexit EU Parliament | 2019-05-26 | EU28 | 182 | 154 | 108 | 73 | 74 | 62 | 41 | 57 | - |
Graphical summary
The chart below depicts opinion polls conducted for the 2024 European Parliament election using a 6-poll moving average. From 31 January, the United Kingdom is not included.Popular Vote
The following table shows the projected popular vote share for the groups in the EU Parliament aggregated on the European level.| Institute | Date | Scope | EPP | S&D | RE | Greens/EFA | ID | ECR | GUE/NGL | NI | Others |
| Institute | Date | Scope | Others | ||||||||
| Europe Elects | 2020-07-24 | EU27 | 25.7% | 17.9% | 11.6% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% |
| Europe Elects | 2020-05-28 | EU27 | 25.2% | 18.0% | 11.3% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 5.4% |
| Europe Elects | 2020-04-30 | EU27 | 25.3% | 18.5% | 10.9% | 7.2% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% |
| Europe Elects | 2020-03-31 | EU27 | 24.1% | 18.2% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% |
| Europe Elects | 2020-02-29 | EU27 | 22.7% | 18.0% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 4.9% |
| Europe Elects | 2020-01-31 | EU27 | 20.5% | 18.6% | 12.4% | 8.4% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 8.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% |
| Europe Elects | 2019-12-31 | EU28 | 20.9% | 18.8% | 11.8% | 8.2% | 11.9% | 12.4% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 3.7% |
| Europe Elects | 2019-11-30 | EU28 | 20.3% | 18.4% | 12.3% | 8.4% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 8.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% |
| Europe Elects | 2019-10-31 | EU28 | 20.3% | 17.8% | 13.1% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 7.9% |
| Europe Elects | 2019-09-30 | EU28 | 19.6% | 19.5% | 12.3% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 7.9% |
| Europe Elects | 2019-08-31 | EU28 | 20.0% | 19.0% | 12.9% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% |
| Europe Elects | 2019-07-31 | EU28 | 19.3% | 19.0% | 12.8% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.7% |
| Europe Elects | 2019-06-30 | EU28 | 19.1% | 18.9% | 13.3% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% |
| European election 2019 | 2019-05-26 | EU28 | 21.0% | 18.5% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.8% |