The strategy emerged after the 1981 Irish hunger strike as a response to the electoral success of Bobby Sands in the April 1981 Fermanagh and South Tyrone by-election and pro-hunger strike campaigners in the Northern Irelandlocal elections and Republic of Ireland Dáil Éireann elections of the same year. It was first formulated by Sinn Féin organiser Danny Morrison at the party's Ard Fheis in 1981, when he said: The strategy was a mixed success. Sinn Féin had a solid core of 9-13 percent of the vote in Northern Ireland, which gave the party some credibility on the international stage. However at home it highlighted the dominance at the time of the non-violent Social Democratic and Labour Party in Northern nationalist politics, while Sinn Féin's vote in the Republic remained tiny once the emotion generated by the 1981 hunger strike subsided. In the longer term it had two important political consequences, each of which fed in to the emergent Northern Ireland peace process. When the governments of the UK and Ireland drafted the Anglo-Irish Agreement, this convinced many in Sinn Féin that it was possible to make political gains without violence. However, the electoral setbacks suffered by Sinn Féin, such as the loss of 16 of the party's 59 council seats in 1989 pushed the emphasis of the Republican movement away from the Armalite and towards an election-focused strategy. For some time after the IRA ceasefires of 1994 and 1997, opinion in Northern Ireland remained divided on whether the armalite and ballot box strategy had ended. However, with the cessation of large-scale political violence, the complete decommissioning of weaponry by the IRA and a statement from the Army Council that 'the war is over', the majority of unionists have overcome their scepticism and now believe that the strategy has been abandoned. The strategy has also been attributed as having inspired members of the Loyalist Ulster Defence Association such as John McMichael to seek a similar route into electoral politics through vehicles such as the Ulster Loyalist Democratic Party. However, parties directly linked to Loyalist paramilitaries had minimal success in elections in Northern Ireland, with the UDP's and Progressive Unionist Party's combined electoral share failing to exceed 1% before the May 1996 elections for the Northern Ireland Forum.