Bent Flyvbjerg


Bent Flyvbjerg is a Danish economic geographer. He is Professor of Major Programme Management at Oxford University's Saïd Business School and the first Director of the University's BT Centre for Major Programme Management. He was previously Professor of Planning at Aalborg University, Denmark and Chair of Infrastructure Policy and Planning at Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands. He is a fellow of St Anne's College, Oxford.

Academic Work

Flyvbjerg is the author or editor of 10 books and more than 200 papers in professional journals and edited volumes. His publications have been translated into 20 languages. His research has been covered by Science, The Economist, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, China Daily, The BBC, CNN, and many other media. He is a frequent commentator in the media.
Flyvbjerg received his Ph.D. in urban geography and planning from Aarhus University, Denmark, with parts done at the University of California at Los Angeles. He has written extensively about megaprojects, decision making, city management, and philosophy of social science. He was a member of the Danish Infrastructure Commission and a director of the Danish Court Administration. He has twice held the Fulbright Scholarship. Bent Flyvbjerg was knighted in the Order of the Dannebrog in 2002.
His research falls in three main areas: The philosophy and methodology of the social sciences, Power and rationality in decision making, and Megaproject planning and management.

Philosophy and Methodology of the Social Sciences

In the philosophy and methodology of the social sciences, Flyvbjerg's main contribution is developing the theory and methodology of phronetic social science, i.e., a social science based on Aristotelian phronesis. Flyvbjerg argues that social sciences that attempt to emulate natural science and predictive theory have failed, and will continue to fail. He further argues that in order to matter the social sciences must inform practical reason instead of abstract rationality. This is best done by a focus on values and power in actual human decision making, according to Flyvbjerg. He develops the methodological guidelines for such research and demonstrates how to employ them in concrete case studies in phronetic social science.
Phronetic research is aimed at being directly relevant to society and people, including ordinary citizens and policy makers. In terms of philosophy and history of science, Flyvbjerg is influenced by Aristotle rather than by Socrates and Plato. Flyvbjerg's key works on phronetic social science are the books Making Social Science Matter: Why Social Inquiry Fails and How It Can Succeed Again and ', both published by Cambridge University Press, plus a number of research papers.
Flyvbjerg's work has been extensively debated in the social sciences, most prominently in the so-called "Flyvbjerg Debate" covered in the book ', edited by Sanford Schram and Brian Caterino.

Power and Rationality in Decision Making

In his research on power and rationality, Flyvbjerg has documented how power influences rationality, and vice versa. Flyvbjerg here shows that in human decision making what is called rationality often turns out to be rationalization, under the influence of power. Flyvbjerg sums up this work in a number of propositions about power and rationality, among which:
Flyvbjerg argues that his research on power and rationality is an instance of phronetic social science. Theoretically and methodologically, the main influences on Flyvbjerg's work on power and rationality are Thucydides, Machiavelli, and Nietzsche. Flyvbjerg specifically highlights Machiavelli's power studies in Florence as a source of influence for the choice of in-depth case studies as the means for understanding the dynamics of power and how power enables and constrains rationality and rational government.
Flyvbjerg's main works on power and rationality are the book Rationality and Power: Democracy in Practice, published by the University of Chicago Press, plus a number of research papers.

Megaproject Planning and Management

Flyvbjerg's research on megaproject planning and management compares plans with actual outcomes, and explains discrepancies. Flyvbjerg documents what he calls : "Over time, over budget, under benefits, over and over again." This is a statistical, not a deterministic, law. Megaprojects that are on time, budget, and benefits do exist, but they are rare, according to the data. The Iron Law applies at an overwhelmingly high level of statistical significance. Flyvbjerg shows that a root cause is that competition between megaprojects and their sponsors creates biases rooted in political and organizational pressures that lead to the consistent overestimating of project benefits and the underestimating of project costs. The best megaprojects do not get implemented, but rather the ones that look best on paper. Flyvbjerg argues that the ones that look best on paper are the ones for which costs and benefits have been misrepresented the most, either deliberately through strategic misrepresentation, or non-deliberately through optimism bias or, typically, through a combination of both.
Flyvbjerg identifies three antidotes to the Iron Law: Realistic planning, including de-biasing of all cost, schedule, and benefit estimates; High-quality delivery teams; and Governance structures with incentives for realistic plans and for delivering those plans to time, budget, and benefits; and with early-warning-sign systems to immediately capture and act on things that go wrong, which they invariably do in megaprojects, due to their sheer size and complexity, according to Flyvbjerg. Based on Daniel Kahneman's work on the planning fallacy and optimism bias, Flyvbjerg pioneered reference class forecasting as a practical method for de-biasing megaproject plans.
In his book, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Kahneman calls Flyvbjerg's insights on the planning fallacy and reference class forecasting, "the single most important piece of advice regarding how to increase accuracy in forecasting." Kahneman is a key intellectual influence for Flyvbjerg's work on megaprojects, as is Nassim Nicholas Taleb, especially his work on black swans, and Martin Wachs, who was Flyvbjerg's doctoral supervisor at UCLA.
Flyvbjerg's key works on megaproject planning and management are the books Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition, ', ', and , plus a number of research papers. Flyvbjerg has argued that his work on megaprojects constitutes an example of phronetic social science.

Oxford BT Professorship in Major Programme Management

In 2007, BT Group donated funds to the University of Oxford to set up permanently the BT Professorship and Chair in Major Programme Management. In 2008, Oxford University headhunted Bent Flyvbjerg for the position from Aalborg and Delft. Flyvbjerg is Oxford University's first BT Professor and inaugural Chair of Major Programme Management.

Readership

Bent Flyvbjerg's publications are widely read and cited. has more than 7,000 citations at , making it the most cited current book in the philosophy and methodology of social science. ' has more than , making it the most cited book on megaproject planning and management. ' has more than , making it one of the most cited books in city planning and management and winning Flyvbjerg the nomination of "." Flyvbjerg's classic paper, "Five Misunderstandings about Case-Study Research," has more than at Google Scholar.

Honors and Awards

Bent Flyvbjerg is co-founder and Chairman of . He has advised government and business, including the US, UK, and Chinese governments and Fortune 500 companies. He also serves as external advisor to McKinsey & Co.

Books