Christian population growth


Christian population growth is the population growth of the global Christian community. According to a 2011 Pew Research Center survey, there were 2.3 billion Christians around the world in 2010, more than three times as many as the 600 million recorded it 1910. However, this rate of growth is slower than the overall population growth over the same time period. According to a 2015 Pew Research Center study, by 2050, the Christian population is expected to be 2.9 billion.
The average Christian fertility rate is 2.7 children per woman, which is higher than the global average fertility rate of 2.5. Globally, Christians were only slightly older than the global median age of 28 in 2010. According to Pew Research religious switching is projected to have a modest impact on changes in the Christian population. According to the World Christian Encyclopedia, approximately 2.7 million convert to Christianity annually from another religion; World Christian Encyclopedia also stated that Christianity ranks in first place in net gains through religious conversion. While, according "The Oxford Handbook of Religious Conversion" between 1990-2000, approximately 1.9 million people converted to Christianity from another religion, with Christianity ranking first in net gains through religious conversion. According to "The Oxford Handbook of Religious Conversion", in mid-2005 approximately 15.5 million convert to Christianity from another religion, approximately 11.7 million leave Christianity, and most of them become irreligious, resulting in a net gain of 3.8 million. Christianity adds about 65.1 million people due to factors such as birth rate and religious conversion, while losing 27.4 million people due to factors such as death rate and religious apostasy in mid-2005. Most of the net growth in the numbers of Christians is in Africa, Latin America and Asia.

Summary


TraditionFollowers% of the Christian population% of the world populationFollower dynamicsDynamics in- and outside Christianity
Catholic Church1,094,610,00050.115.9 Growing Stable
Protestantism800,640,00036.711.6 Growing Growing
Orthodoxy260,380,00011.93.8 Shrinking Shrinking
Other Christianity28,430,0001.30.4 Growing Growing
Christianity2,184,060,00010031.7 Stable Stable

The Christian fertility rate is 2.7 children per woman, which is higher than the global average fertility rate of 2.5. Globally, Christians were only slightly older than the global average median age of 28 in 2010. According to Pew Research religious switching is projected to have a modest impact on changes in the Christian population.
According to the World Christian Encyclopedia, approximately 2.7 million converting to Christianity from another religion, World Christian Encyclopedia also cited that Christianity rank at first place in net gains through religious conversion. While according to "The Oxford Handbook of Religious Conversion", approximately 15.5 million converting to Christianity from another religion, while approximately 11.7 million leave Christianity, and most of them become irreligious, resulting in a net gain of 3.8 million. Christianity earns about 65.1 million people due to factors such as birth rate, the religious conversion while losing 27.4 million people due to factors such as death rate, religious apostasy. Most of the net growth in the numbers of Christians are in Africa, Latin America and Asia.

Fertility rate

The Christian fertility rate has varied throughout history, as with other fertility figures. The Christian fertility rate also varies from country to country. In the 20-year period from 1989–2009, the average world fertility rate decreased from 3.50 to 2.58, a fall of 0.92 children per woman, or 26%. The weighted average fertility rate for Christian nations decreased in the same period from 3.26 to 2.58, a fall of 0.68 children per woman, or 21%. The weighted average fertility rate for Muslim nations decreased in the same period from 5.17 to 3.23, a fall of 1.94 children per woman, or 38%. While Muslims have an average of 3.1 children per woman—the highest rate of all religious groups—Christians are second, with 2.7 children per woman.
The gap in fertility between the Christian- and Muslim-dominated nations fell from 67% in 1990 to 17% in 2010. According to a study published by the Pew Research Center in 2017, births to Muslims between the years of 2010 and 2015 made up an estimated 31% of all babies born around the world. By the Pew Research Center's estimates, the Muslim fertility rate and Christian fertility rate will converge by 2040.
CountryFertility rate

Percent Christian
2.5894%
6.5399%
1.3998.6%
5.3692%
1.4095.3%
2.5588.0%
1.3390%

Conversion

Catholic Church

Protestantism

Afghanistan

A 2015 study estimates 60,000 Muslims converted to Christianity in Saudi Arabia.

Singapore

Albania

Argentina

A 2015 study estimates some 2,200 Christian believers from a Muslim background in the country, most of them belonging to some form of Protestantism.
Data from 2013, show that 64,000 Argentine Jews identify themselves as Christians.

Canada

According to 1991/2001/2011-Census, the number of Christians in Canada has decreased from 22.5 million to 22.1 million.
A 2015 study estimates some 43,000 believers in Christ from a Muslim background in Canada, most of whom belong to the evangelical tradition.

Mexico

According to INEGI, The number of Catholics grows annually by 1.7%.

United States

The United States government does not collect religious data in its census. The survey below, the American Religious Identification Survey 2008, was a random digit-dialed telephone survey of 54,461 American residential households in the contiguous United States. The 1990 sample size was 113,723; 2001 sample size was 50,281.
Adult respondents were asked the open-ended question, "What is your religion, if any?" Interviewers did not prompt or offer a suggested list of potential answers. The religion of the spouse or partner was also asked. If the initial answer was "Protestant" or "Christian" further questions were asked to probe which particular denomination. About one-third of the sample was asked more detailed demographic questions.
Among the Asian population in the United States, conversion into Christianity is significantly increasing among Korean, Chinese, and Japanese. By 2012 the percentage of Christians in these communities was 71%, 31%, and 38% respectively.
Data from the Pew Research Center states that, as of 2013, about 1.6 million adult American Jews identify themselves as Christians, most as Protestants. According to the same data, most of the Jews who identify themselves as some sort of Christian were raised as Jew or are Jews by ancestry.
According to Pew Research, Christianity loses more people than it gains from religious conversion. It found that 23% of Americans raised as Christians no longer identified with Christianity, whereas 6% of current Christians converted. This was in contrast to Islam in America, where the number of people who leave the religion is roughly equal to the number who convert to it. The National Catholic Register claims that in 2015 there were 450,000 American Muslim converts to Christianity and that 20,000 Muslims convert to Christianity annually in the United States.
Religious Self-Identification of the U.S. Adult Population: 1990, 2001, 2008
Figures are not adjusted for refusals to reply; investigators suspect refusals are possibly more representative of "no religion" than any other group.
Group
1990
adults
x 1,000
2001
adults
x 1,000
2008
adults
x 1,000

Numerical
Change
1990–
2008
as %
of 1990
1990
% of
adults
2001
% of
adults
2008
% of
adults
change
in % of
total
adults
1990–
2008
Adult population, total175,440207,983228,18230.1%
Adult population, Responded171,409196,683216,36726.2%97.7%94.6%94.8%−2.9%
Total Christian151,225159,514173,40214.7%86.2%76.7%76.0%−10.2%
Catholic46,00450,87357,19924.3%26.2%24.5%25.1%−1.2%
non-Catholic Christian105,221108,641116,20310.4%60.0%52.2%50.9%−9.0%
Baptist33,96433,82036,1486.4%19.4%16.3%15.8%−3.5%
Mainline Christian32,78435,78829,375−10.4%18.7%17.2%12.9%−5.8%
Methodist14,17414,03911,366−19.8%8.1%6.8%5.0%−3.1%
Lutheran9,1109,5808,674−4.8%5.2%4.6%3.8%−1.4%
Presbyterian4,9855,5964,723−5.3%2.8%2.7%2.1%−0.8%
Episcopalian/Anglican3,0433,4512,405−21.0%1.7%1.7%1.1%−0.7%
United Church of Christ4381,37873668.0%0.2%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Christian Generic25,98022,54632,44124.9%14.8%10.8%14.2%−0.6%
Christian Unspecified8,07314,19016,384102.9%4.6%6.8%7.2%2.6%
Non-denominational Christian1942,4898,0324040.2%0.1%1.2%3.5%3.4%
Protestant – Unspecified17,2144,6475,187−69.9%9.8%2.2%2.3%−7.5%
Evangelical/Born Again5461,0882,154294.5%0.3%0.5%0.9%0.6%
Pentecostal/Charismatic5,6477,8317,94840.7%3.2%3.8%3.5%0.3%
Pentecostal – Unspecified3,1164,4075,41673.8%1.8%2.1%2.4%0.6%
Assemblies of God6171,10581031.3%0.4%0.5%0.4%0.0%
Church of God59094366312.4%0.3%0.5%0.3%0.0%
Other Protestant Denominations4,6305,9497,13154.0%2.6%2.9%3.1%0.5%
Churches of Christ1,7692,5931,9218.6%1.0%1.2%0.8%−0.2%
Seventh-Day Adventist66872493840.4%0.4%0.3%0.4%0.0%
Jehovah's Witnesses1,3811,3311,91438.6%0.8%0.6%0.8%0.1%
Mormon/Latter Day Saints2,4872,6973,15827.0%1.4%1.3%1.4%0.0%
Total non-Christian religions5,8537,7408,79650.3%3.3%3.7%3.9%0.5%
Jewish3,1372,8372,680−14.6%1.8%1.4%1.2%−0.6%
Eastern Religions6872,0201,961185.4%0.4%1.0%0.9%0.5%
Buddhist4041,0821,189194.3%0.2%0.5%0.5%0.3%
Muslim5271,1041,349156.0%0.3%0.5%0.6%0.3%
New Religious Movements & Others1,2961,7702,804116.4%0.7%0.9%1.2%0.5%
None/ No religion, total14,33129,48134,169138.4%8.2%14.2%15.0%6.8%
Agnostic+Atheist1,1861,8933,606204.0%0.7%0.9%1.6%0.9%
Did Not Know/ Refused to reply4,03111,30011,815193.1%2.3%5.4%5.2%2.9%

Highlights:
  1. The ARIS 2008 survey was carried out from February–November 2008 and collected answers from 54,461 respondents who were questioned in English or Spanish.
  2. The American population self-identifies as predominantly Christian but Americans are slowly becoming less Christian.
  3. * 86% of American adults identified as Christians in 1990 and 76% in 2008.
  4. * The historic Mainline churches and denominations have experienced the steepest declines while the non-denominational Christian identity has been trending upward particularly since 2001.
  5. * The challenge to Christianity in the United States does not come from other religions but rather from a rejection of all forms of organized religion.
  6. 34% of American adults considered themselves "Born Again or Evangelical Christians" in 2008.
  7. The U.S. population continues to show signs of becoming less religious, with one out of every seven Americans failing to indicate a religious identity in 2008.
  8. * The "Nones" continue to grow, though at a much slower pace than in the 1990s, from 8.2% in 1990 to 14.1% in 2001, to 15.0% in 2008.
  9. * Asian Americans are substantially more likely to indicate no religious identity than other racial or ethnic groups.
  10. One sign of the lack of attachment of Americans to religion is that 27% do not expect a religious funeral at their death.
  11. Based on their stated beliefs rather than their religious identification in 2008, 70% of Americans believe in a personal God, roughly 12% of Americans are atheist or agnostic, and another 12% are deistic.
  12. America's religious geography has been transformed since 1990. Religious switching along with Hispanic immigration has significantly changed the religious profile of some states and regions. Between 1990 and 2008, the Catholic population proportion of the New England states fell from 50% to 36% and in New York it fell from 44% to 37%, while it rose in California from 29% to 37% and in Texas from 23% to 32%.
  13. Overall the 1990–2008 ARIS time series shows that changes in religious self-identification in the first decade of the 21st century have been moderate in comparison to the 1990s, which was a period of significant shifts in the religious composition of the United States

    Oceania

Australia

A 2015 study estimates some 20,000 Muslim converted to Christianity in Australia, most of them belonging to some form of Protestantism.