Colley Matrix is a computer-generated sports rating system designed by Dr. Wes Colley. The site is one of more than 40 polls, rankings, and formulas recognized by the NCAA in its list of national champion major selections. In 2018, the Mountain West Conference moved away from using the poll, along with three others, to determine the host site for its conference championship game in football.
Methodology
In his initial paper at Princeton University, Colley states, "The method is based on very simple statistical principles, and uses only Div. I-A wins and losses as input — margin of victory does not matter. The scheme adjusts effectively for strength of schedule, in a way that is free of bias toward conference, tradition, or region." Colley claims that his method is bias-free for estimating the ranking of a team given a particular schedule. The resulting values for each team are identified as a ranking, thus being a realization of Pierre-Simon Laplace’s Rule of Succession. In a 2018 study released in the journal Science Advances, the ratings system finished third for highest accuracy of ranking synthetic data sets.
National champions
As a NCAA-designated major selector, the NCAA regards the following teams as Colley's national champion selection.
a Record does not count wins against UCLA, or against Oklahoma in the BCS Championship game on January 4, 2005, as they were vacated by the NCAA.
BCS Rankings
The Colley Matrix was one of the computer rankings used during Bowl Championship Series system of determining national championship game participants from 2001-2014. Added in 2001, The Peter Wolfe and Wes Colley/Atlanta Journal-Constitution computer rankings were used in place of the NYT and Dunkel rankings. The change was made because the BCS wanted computer rankings that did not depend heavily on margin of victory.
Criticism
The methodology of the rankings have been questioned by others on the grounds of subjectivity and specifics of the statistical math.
Controversies
In the final BCS rankings of 2010, LSU was incorrectly ranked ahead of Boise State, at No. 10 instead of No. 11. The error was a result of Colley failing to input the Appalachian State/Western Illinois FCSplayoff game correctly, a mistake that affected an order that helped determine bowl pairings that season. At the end of the 2012 season, the Colley Matrix ranked Notre Dame as first and Alabama second despite the Crimson Tide defeating the Fighting Irish 42–14 in the 2013 BCS National Championship Game.
