Hwasong-13


The Hwasong-13, also known as Rodong-C or KN-08 under the U.S. naming convention, is a road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile believed to be under development by North Korea. The changes shown in the mock-up displayed in October 2015 indicated a change from a three to two-stage design.

Development

s of the missile were first displayed during a military parade in April 2012 to mark the 100th anniversary of Kim Il Sung. Six missiles were carried on 16-wheel transporter erector launchers, similar in size to those used by the Russian RT-2PM2 Topol-M missiles. The TELs are thought to be based on WS-51200 frames made by Wanshan Special Vehicle in China, possibly using technology from Minsk Automobile Plant. UN investigators have concluded that the TELs were Chinese WS51200 trucks exported to North Korea for lumber transport. The North Koreans converted them into TELs by installing hydraulic gear and controls to erect a missile. Despite being converted to fire a missile, the truck would not be likely to survive damage from the rocket exhaust like a purpose-built TEL, making it a single-use launcher.
Mock-ups were again paraded in 2013, with fewer discrepancies between them than in the previous year. The KN-08 was paraded again to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the founding of Korean Workers Party on 11 October 2015. In this parade, the missile featured a modified smaller-in-length but larger-in-diameter third stage plus re-entry vehicle section design, which has led to suggestions that North Korea might have perfected nuclear warhead miniaturization.
The KN-08 mock-up dimensions are estimated to be: length of about 17.1 metres, and first and second stage diameter of about 1.9 metres, reducing to about 1.25 metres for the third stage. Liquid-fueled ICBMs generally only have two stages for best performance, with a few exceptions. The three stage design of the KN-08 is puzzling. While a three-stage design is common for solid propellant ICBMs, western analysts say that North Korea lacks the experience and ability to develop a solid-fueled ICBM.
In early 2015, the U.S. Department of Defense announced that although they had not seen the KN-08 tested, they believed North Korea had the ability to put a nuclear weapon on a KN-08, and it was prudent to plan for that threat. The KN-08 theoretically poses a threat to the U.S. mainland, able to deliver a payload to the American West Coast. Practically speaking however, its accuracy is likely "barely adequate" to target large cities, mobility would be limited to paved roads, and the system will require 1–2 hours of pre-launch fueling. In 2017, speculations were published, that the KN-08 may achieve an emergency operational status by 2020
It is reported on December 2, 2017, that the missile was canceled and that development team was sent to assist development of Hwasong-12 IRBM, Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-15 ICBMs. German analyst Norbert Brugge in interview on November 27, 2017 for Difesa Online, a military focused website claimed that Hwasong-10 and Hwasong-13 were likely canceled due to inability to solve engine problems.

List of KN-08 tests

KN-08 Mod 2

The mock-up displayed by North Korea in October 2015 was significantly different compared to previous models, with two stages rather than three. Overall size was somewhat reduced, with larger fuel tanks for the two stages. It was no longer built with extensive riveting, suggesting a more modern structural design, with reduced weight.
On 31 March 2016, The Washington Free Beacon reported that the missile displayed in 2015 is a new missile, called KN-14, or KN-08 Mod 2 rather than a KN-08. The KN-14 missile appeared similar to the Russian R-29 SLBM, but with an extended range. Rick Fisher, a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center concluded in this report that a KN-14 missile with a 10,000 km range could hit Chicago and Toronto, but would lack sufficient range to hit Washington from North Korea. The report quickly circulated in Japanese, Chinese, Taiwanese and South Korean media.
The KN-08 Mod 2 was originally referred to by Western sources as the "Hwasong-14". However, analysts now believe that missile was inaccurately designated. On July 4, 2017, North Korea test launched a newly revealed ICBM, which was designated locally the Hwasong-14, that appears to have no substantial relationship with the KN-08 Mod 2. The missile from 2015, which has never been test fired, is now referred to as the KN-14.

Reactions from Chinese military expert

aired a 9-minute-long interview with a Chinese military expert discussing KN-08 Mod 2 and North Korea's potential future developments in ICBM technology.
The Chinese expert in the video has estimated that North Korea can have a true ICBM within range of the US mainland between 2021 and 2026 if they can successfully master their Hwasong-10 missile. He stated that the technology and the theory behind an Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile is exactly the same as an ICBM except that ICBM involves more stage separation in order for the missile to have a longer range. North Korea has successfully demonstrated their stage separation technology by the latest 2 satellite launches in 2012 and 2016.
However, he noted two weakness of North Korea's missile development program. One is that the North Korea's missiles are based on the older missile designs. Therefore, their flaws continued in their new missile development since North Korea has conducted only minimal flight tests compared to other countries with active missile development programs. The other aspect is that all of North Korea's ballistic missiles except the KN-02, at the time of the interview, were liquid fueled, and therefore the preparation, fueling, and launch takes hours. This amount of time would give enemies such as the United States or South Korea time to conduct airstrikes and destroy the missiles before they could be launched.
However, North Korea may also be studying Soviet encapsulation techniques such as those used in the UR-100 ICBM, where each missile comes prefueled in a maintenance-free capsule with a mean time between overhauls of several years and a preparation time required before launch reduces to minutes. This appears to have been proven with the successful test launches of the Pukkuksong-2 solid-fueled ballistic missile in both land and submarine launched variants in 2017.