Iraqi insurgency (2017–present)


The Iraqi Insurgency is an ongoing low-level insurgency that began in late 2017 after the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant lost territorial control in the War in Iraq of 2014 to 2017. Several rebel groups, including ISIL, White Flags and the Iraqi Baath Party fight the Iraqi military and allied paramilitary forces.

Context

The insurgency is a direct continuation of the War in Iraq from 2014 to 2017, with mostly Sunni rebel groups continuing armed opposition against the Shia-led Iraqi Government. Along with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, other insurgents fighting the government include a group known as the White Flags which is reportedly composed of former ISIL members and Kurdish rebels and is believed by the government of Iraq to be part of Ansar al-Islam and possibly affiliated with al-Qaeda. The group operates mostly in the Kirkuk Governorate and has used an assortment of guerilla tactics against government forces. Other factions opposed to the Iraqi government include the Iraqi Baath Party currently led by Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri a former official to Saddam Hussein during his rule in Iraq and has been active in Iraq's conflict since the US-led invasion in 2003 leading multiple factions including the Naqshbandi Army and Supreme Command for Jihad and Liberation. In September 2017, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of ISIL, called on ISIL supporters around the world to launch attacks on Western news media and continued in his message the ISIL must focus on combating the two-pronged attack on the Muslim Ummah; these statements marked a departure from previous rhetoric which was focused on the state building of ISIL and heralded a shift in ISIL's strategy toward a classical insurgency.

Course of the insurgency

Since ISIL's loss of Mosul in late 2017 which was declared as Iraq's victory over ISIL and widely seen as an end to the war, and declared as such by Iraq's Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi, multiple incidents of violence have occurred being carried out by the conflicting sides, in spite of Iraq's declaration of victory over ISIL the group is widely seen as far from gone and continues to retain a presence throughout Iraq, and still capable of carrying out attacks and skirmishes with pro-government forces. ISIL has been waging a guerrilla war with a strong presence in the governorates of Kirkuk, Diyala, Saladin, and Sulaymaniyah, with local forces largely ill-equipped and inexperienced, ISIL has also taken advantage of the areas rough terrain to carry out operations. ISIL has also made a notable presence in the cities of Kirkuk, Hawija and Tuz Khurmato and has carried out attacks at night in rural areas.
ISIL fighters also reportedly move through villages during the day without interference from security forces, and locals have been asked by ISIL to give fighters food and give information on the whereabouts of Iraqi personnel, locals have also stated that ISIL fighters will frequently enter into Mosques and ask for Zakat to fund the insurgency. Among ISIL's operations include assassinations, kidnappings, raids and ambushes.
According to the Pentagon, as of fall 2018 ISIL was still stronger than it was between 2006–2007, when the group declared the Islamic State of Iraq during its incarnation as al-Qaeda in Iraq, citing a UN report which claimed that ISIL still had 20,000–30,000 fighters in Syria and Iraq. That claim of strength was simultaneously tempered though, with the Pentagon saying that ISIL had lost all of its territory and fighters were scattered, making them much less of a threat. The Pentagon predicted that ISIL will lose strength because of their dispersion in a way similar to what happened to al-Qaeda, while also warning that ISIL is still in a position to make a comeback.
Following ISIL's defeat they have been greatly weakened and violence in Iraq has been sharply reduced in 2018. Only 95 people lost their lives during the month of May, the lowest figure in 10 years.

Timeline

2018

January–April

Between January and February 2018, Iraqi security forces and Peshmerga clashed with the White Flags around parts of the Kirkuk and Saladin governorates for control of oil fields which the Iraqi government claims the group's priority is. The Iraqi government said in the clashes the composition of the White Flag's fighters are ISIL members and individuals linked to the Kurdish mafia, the government also alleges that the Kurdistan Region allowed oil theft to occur in the area while it was under their control and enabled ISIL for their own interests.
In March 2018, in two separate attacks ISIL reportedly killed 10 individuals including a pro-government Sunni tribal Sheikh along with his son and guests at his house in the town of Al-Shirqat south of Mosul, in the other attack ISIL killed 5 individuals from the same family whom were Iraqi Turkmen and Shia at a fake checkpoint set up by the group posing as Iraqi security forces.
in Iraq, 30 October 2018. US troops anticipate ISIL units deploying drones during reconnaissance or attacks

November

January–July

, Iraq, September 2019

October

January