A new normal is a state to which an economy, society, etc. settles following a crisis, when this differs from the situation that prevailed prior to the start of the crisis. The term has been used following the financial crisis of 2007-2008, the aftermath of the 2008–2012 global recession, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The term arose from the context of cautioning the belief of economists and policy makers that industrial economies would revert to their most recent means post the 2007-2008 financial crisis. The 29 January 2009, Philadelphia City Paper quoted Paul Glover referring to the need for "new normals" in community development, when introducing his cover story "Prepare for the Best". The 2010 Per Jacobsson lecture delivered by the head of PIMCO, Mohamed A. El-Erian, was titled "Navigating the New Normal in Industrial Countries". In the lecture El-Erian stated that "Our use of the term was an attempt to move the discussion beyond the notion that the crisis was a mere flesh wound...instead the crisis cut to the bone. It was the inevitable result of an extraordinary, multiyear period which was anything but normal". El-Erian's lecture cites a 18May 2008 Bloomberg News article written by journalists Rich Miller and Matthew Benjamin for first using the term: "Post-Subprime Economy Means Subpar Growth as New Normal in U.S." The term has subsequently been used by ABC News, BBC News, the New York Times, and formed part of a question by Candy Crowley, the moderator of the Second U.S. presidential debate of 2012.
History
Author Robert A. Heinlein used the phrase in his 1966 novel, The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress, with a character telling lunar colonists: Since 2012, China's economy has shown a marked slowdown, with growth rates declining from double digit levels to around 7% in 2014. In 2014, a statement by Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, indicated that China was entering a 'new normal'. This term was subsequently popularised by the press and came to refer to expectations of 7% growth rates in China for the foreseeable future. It was indicative of the Chinese government's anticipation of moderate but perhaps more stable economic growth in the medium-to-long term. During COVID-19 pandemic, the term new normal has an increasing use to refer the changes of human behavior changes during or after this pandemic. Doctors at the University of Kansas Health System anticipate that the pandemic will change daily life for most people. This includes limiting person-to-person contact, like handshakes and hugs. Additionally, maintaining distance from others or social distancing, in general, will likely stick around.
