Opinion polling for the 2007 Kenyan general election


Opinion polls played an important role in the runup to the Kenyan elections of December 2007. A number of institutes published results on the presidential candidates. Nation Media employed the Kenyan Steadman market information company to conduct regular polls, which thus received the widest attention.
Polls are a new instrument on the Kenyan political scene. Recent elections had seen some results published which met, however, with widespread scepticism.
The publication of polls in 2007 generated large interest and controversy as they were alternatively welcomed or condemned by parties and observers on the national scene and frequently criticised as having been manipulated by one or the other side.
Generally polls showed in early stages a lead for President Mwai Kibaki and a strong showing of Kalonzo Musyoka on the opposition side.
After realignments in the opposition Raila Odinga had managed to get the support of regional leaders from a multi-tribal background and Musyoka looked largely reduced to his Kamba hometurf. This showed in the polls with Odinga surging ahead.
After re-formation on the president's side criticism at Odinga became more pointed and this message seems to have had effect in narrowing the difference between the leading presidential contestants.

National polls

Regional polls

23 September 2007http://eastandard.net/news/?id=1143975093 Raila leads Kibaki in city poll ''The Standard'', 26 September 2007 (Poll by Steadman International)

ProvinceKibakiOdingaMusyokaUndecided
Nairobi40%44%10%5%

29 September 2007http://eastandard.net/news/?id=1143975236 Raila leads, Kibaki drops ''The Standard'', 29 September 2007 (Poll by Steadman International)

ProvinceKibakiOdingaMusyokaUndecidedRTA
Central79%12%1%4%–
Coast36%48%6%8%–
Eastern49%34%6%3%–
Nairobi37%51%5%4%–
North Eastern27%70%3%0%–
Nyanza8%85%0%2%–
Rift Valley35%53%3%8%–
Western25%65%4%3%–
# of Wins260

23 October 2007http://www.nationmedia.com/dailynation/nmgcontententry.asp?category_id=1&newsid=109318 Raila tops yet again in latest [opinion poll ratings with lead in six provinces ] ''Daily Nation'', 27 October 2007 (Poll by Steadman International)

ProvinceKibakiOdingaMusyokaUndecidedRTA
Central89%5%2%––
Coast36%49%10%––
Eastern55%8%36%––
Nairobi43%46%8%––
North Eastern20%77%1%––
Nyanza17%82%0%––
Rift Valley29%65%4%––
Western29%61%3%––
# of Wins260

23 November 2007

ProvinceKibakiOdingaMusyokaUndecidedRTA
Central92.8%5.0%2.0%––
Coast34.7%51.5%9.7%––
Eastern48.9%6.1%43.8%––
Nairobi46.3%39.3%12.1%––
North Eastern32.2%64.4%3.4%––
Nyanza11.9%85.3%1.8%––
Rift Valley39.3%55.8%3.9%––
Western20.7%72.8%1.4%––
# of wins350

7 December 2007http://eastandard.net/news/?id=1143978572 Steadman poll puts Raila ahead ''The Standard'', 7 December 2007 (Poll by Steadman International)

ProvinceKibakiOdingaMusyoka
Central91%8%–
Coast35%63%10%
Eastern46%6%44%
Nairobi41%47%–
North Eastern27%65%–
Nyanza19%78%–
Rift Valley36%61%–
Western21%69%–
# of wins260