Pedersen index


The Pedersen index is a measure of electoral volatility in party systems. It was described by Mogens Pedersen in a paper published in 1979 entitled The Dynamics of European Party Systems: Changing Patterns of Electoral Volatility.

What the index means


"The net change within the electoral party system resulting from individual vote transfers"

Construction of the Index

To calculate the index, the percentage gains of the winning parties must be determined. The resulting index will be between 0 and 100, because for every gain there is an equal loss. In other words, the index is equal to the net percentage of voters who changed their votes.
The index can also be constructed by summing the absolute values of all gains and all losses, and dividing this total by two.

Example

Assume that in the first election the Blue Party won 65%, the Orange Party won 25%, and the Fuchsia Party won 10%. Furthermore, assume that in the second election the Blue Party won 65%, the Orange Party won 15%, and the Fuchsia Party won 20%.
Election\Party
1st65%25%10%
2nd65%15%20%
Gain/Loss0-1010

The index would be equal to Blue gains plus Orange's loss plus Fuchsia gains. We then multiply it by 1/2 or divide by 2 for a total volatility of 10%.
If all three parties had disappeared in the next election, and been replaced by the Red Party and the Black Party, the volatility would have been 100%: The first three lose all + the Red Party gaining 75% and the Black Party 25% since the previous election 100+100 = 200 -> divide by 2 = 100