2004 United States presidential election in Indiana


The 2004 United States presidential election in Indiana took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
Indiana was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 20.68% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. The Hoosier State had not voted Democratic in a presidential election since 1964, however in the next election the state bucked this trend and voted for Senator Barack Obama of neighboring Illinois.

Primaries

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.
  1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Republican
  2. Associated Press: Solid Bush
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
  5. Newsweek: Solid Bush
  6. New York Times: Solid Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
  8. Research 2000: Solid Bush
  9. Washington Post: Bush
  10. Washington Times: Solid Bush
  11. Zogby International: Bush
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

    Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll, and won each by a double-digit margin of victory and with at least 52% of the vote. The final 3 polls averaged Bush leading 56% to 40%.

Fundraising

Bush raised $2,491,828. Kerry raised $681,272.

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign visited or advertised in this state during the fall campaign.

Analysis

Indiana has long been considered to be a Republican stronghold. The Cook Partisan Voting Index rates Indiana as a R+8. Indiana was one of only ten states to support Republican Wendell Willkie in 1940. On 14 occasions has the Republican candidate defeated the Democrat by a double-digit margin in the state, including six times where a Republican won the state by more than 20%. In 2000 and 2004, George W. Bush won the state by a wide margin while the election was much closer overall. The state has only supported a Democrat for president five times since 1900. In 1912, Woodrow Wilson became the first Democrat to win the state with 43% of the vote. 20 years later in 1932, Franklin D. Roosevelt won the state with 55% of the vote over incumbent Republican Herbert Hoover. Roosevelt won the state again in 1936. In 1964, 56% of voters supported Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson over Republican Barry Goldwater. Statistically, Indiana is more of a stronghold for Republican presidential candidates than for candidates elected to state government. Whereas only five Democratic presidential nominees have carried Indiana since 1900, 11 Democrats were elected governor during that time. Before Mitch Daniels became governor in 2005, Democrats had held the office for 16 consecutive years.
Historically, Republicans have been strongest in the eastern and central portions of the state, while Democrats have been strongest in the northwestern part of the state. Occasionally, certain counties in the southern part of the state will vote Democratic. Marion County, Indiana's most populated county, supported the Republican candidates from 1968 to 2000, before backing the Democrats in the 2004 , 2008 and 2012 elections. Indiana's second most populated county, Lake County, is a strong supporter of the Democratic party that has not voted for a Republican since 1972. In 2005, the Bay Area Center for Voting Research rated the most liberal and conservative cities in the United States on voting statistics in the 2004 presidential election, based on 237 cities with populations of more than 100,000. Five Indiana cities were mentioned in the study. On the liberal side, Gary was ranked second and South Bend came in at 83. Regarding conservative cities, Fort Wayne was 44th, Evansville was 60th and Indianapolis was 82nd on the list.
, this is the last election in which St. Joseph County voted for the Republican candidate.

Results

Results breakdown

By county

Kerry won only 4 of Indiana's counties compared to 88 for Bush.
CountyBushVotesKerryVotesOthersVotesTotal
Adams73.0%9,73426.3%3,5120.7%9413,340
Allen63.3%82,01336.0%46,7100.7%886129,609
Bartholomew67.0%19,09332.2%9,1910.8%23128,515
Benton70.1%2,79728.4%1,1351.5%603,992
Blackford64.1%3,44735.4%1,9030.6%305,380
Boone74.5%17,05524.6%5,6360.9%20722,898
Brown61.6%4,51237.2%2,7301.2%887,330
Carroll67.9%5,86831.1%2,6890.9%818,638
Cass68.0%9,48031.0%4,3151.0%13613,931
Clark57.9%24,49541.7%17,6480.5%19442,337
Clay68.3%7,36130.9%3,3330.8%8910,783
Clinton71.3%8,47128.1%3,3350.6%7111,877
Crawford57.0%2,60942.2%1,9320.7%334,574
Daviess74.9%7,93624.3%2,5730.8%9010,599
Dearborn67.9%14,23131.5%6,5960.7%14220,969
Decatur73.5%7,49925.7%2,6210.8%7910,199
DeKalb68.0%10,46831.2%4,8100.8%12515,403
Delaware56.5%27,06442.6%20,4360.9%43947,939
Dubois68.7%11,72630.5%5,2100.8%13017,066
Elkhart70.0%42,96729.3%17,9660.7%44761,380
Fayette60.8%5,76138.3%3,6260.9%819,468
Floyd58.7%19,87740.9%13,8570.5%15633,890
Fountain67.4%5,26031.7%2,4770.9%677,804
Franklin69.8%6,97729.3%2,9250.9%909,992
Fulton69.3%6,02730.0%2,6070.8%698,703
Gibson62.5%9,13336.8%5,3780.7%10314,614
Grant68.4%18,76931.0%8,5090.7%18227,460
Greene64.5%8,60934.5%4,6061.0%13713,352
Hamilton74.2%77,88725.2%26,3880.6%631104,906
Hancock74.5%20,77124.8%6,9120.7%18427,867
Harrison63.6%11,01535.6%6,1710.7%12417,310
Hendricks73.5%38,43025.9%13,5480.6%32452,302
Henry64.1%13,13735.0%7,1760.9%19120,504
Howard64.1%23,71435.1%12,9980.8%30937,021
Huntington74.3%11,61724.8%3,8770.9%13315,627
Jackson68.0%11,08331.2%5,0920.8%13416,309
Jasper68.0%8,05631.1%3,6780.9%11011,844
Jay65.9%5,42733.3%2,7400.8%658,232
Jefferson59.8%7,76339.4%5,1170.7%9112,971
Jennings65.3%6,86433.6%3,5381.1%11510,517
Johnson73.7%37,76525.6%13,1090.7%38151,255
Knox63.4%9,99035.9%5,6490.7%10715,746
Kosciusko78.1%22,13621.1%5,9770.9%24728,360
LaGrange71.4%6,43028.0%2,5230.6%509,003
Lake38.2%71,90361.0%114,7430.7%1,376188,022
LaPorte49.1%20,91649.6%21,1141.4%57642,606
Lawrence69.0%12,20730.2%5,3460.8%14517,698
Madison59.3%32,52639.9%21,8820.8%44754,855
Marion48.6%156,07250.6%162,2490.8%2,517320,838
Marshall67.8%12,07431.4%5,5930.8%14717,814
Martin68.3%3,41430.5%1,5221.2%604,996
Miami70.4%9,60028.5%3,8861.0%14213,628
Monroe45.2%22,83453.4%26,9651.3%66850,467
Montgomery74.9%10,90124.3%3,5360.8%11114,548
Morgan73.8%19,19725.5%6,6500.7%18226,029
Newton64.2%3,75734.7%2,0321.0%595,848
Noble69.3%10,85930.0%4,7030.7%11715,679
Ohio60.7%1,79638.5%1,1390.8%232,958
Orange65.7%5,68333.3%2,8851.0%848,652
Owen65.8%5,00033.4%2,5360.9%687,604
Parke65.3%4,55033.9%2,3620.8%596,971
Perry49.8%4,13749.7%4,1310.6%478,315
Pike60.3%3,74538.9%2,4180.8%496,212
Porter53.6%34,79445.3%29,3881.1%69164,873
Posey65.4%7,83334.1%4,0850.6%6811,986
Pulaski67.6%3,79731.2%1,7501.2%675,614
Putnam67.8%8,90831.2%4,1031.0%12513,136
Randolph64.7%7,17234.4%3,8121.0%10811,092
Ripley69.5%8,22429.7%3,5100.8%10011,834
Rush72.3%5,36327.0%2,0000.8%587,421
Saint Joseph50.9%55,25448.5%52,6370.7%728108,616
Scott55.2%4,79344.0%3,8220.7%628,677
Shelby71.1%11,39728.2%4,5190.7%11116,027
Spencer59.8%5,93439.5%3,9200.7%709,924
Starke54.2%4,84644.6%3,9871.2%1048,937
Steuben65.3%8,43333.7%4,3451.0%12712,905
Sullivan59.6%4,99939.8%3,3410.6%548,394
Switzerland58.9%2,16140.3%1,4790.8%313,671
Tippecanoe59.0%30,89739.8%20,8181.2%64552,360
Tipton71.3%5,62827.9%2,2030.8%617,892
Union67.8%2,26631.3%1,0451.0%333,344
Vanderburgh58.7%41,46340.7%28,7670.6%42470,654
Vermillion50.4%3,53648.8%3,4240.8%577,017
Vigo52.8%20,98846.4%18,4260.8%33039,744
Wabash70.6%9,60728.8%3,9200.6%7513,602
Warren64.8%2,56534.2%1,3561.0%393,960
Warrick65.1%16,93034.5%8,9800.4%11526,025
Washington63.6%6,91535.7%3,8790.8%8610,880
Wayne60.0%16,58639.0%10,7751.1%29627,657
Wells74.2%9,16825.2%3,1120.6%7412,354
White67.3%6,97431.6%3,2771.1%11510,366
Whitley70.6%9,51228.8%3,8800.7%8913,481

By congressional district

Bush won 7 of 9 congressional districts.
DistrictBushKerryRepresentative
44%55%Pete Visclosky
56%43%Chris Chocola
68%31%Mark Souder
69%30%Steve Buyer
71%28%Dan Burton
64%35%Mike Pence
42%58%Julia Carson
62%38%John Hostettler
59%40%Baron Hill
59%40%Mike Sodrel

Electors

Technically the voters of Indiana cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Indiana is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from state. All were pledged to and voted for Bush and Cheney.
  1. Kenneth Culp
  2. John Zentz
  3. Michael Miner
  4. Saundra Huddleston
  5. Leeann Cook
  6. Ted Ogle
  7. Melissa Proffitt Reese
  8. Dudley Curea
  9. Larry Shickles
  10. James Kittle
  11. Jean Ann Harcourt