2008 United States presidential election in Indiana


The 2008 United States presidential election in Indiana took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
Indiana was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama by 28,391 votes, a 1.03% margin of victory. Prior to the election, major news organizations considered the state as leaning toward Republican nominee John McCain or as a toss-up. On election day, Obama narrowly carried Indiana, which marked the first time a Democratic presidential nominee won Indiana since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964., this is the last time that the Democratic nominee carried Indiana, as well as Spencer County, Starke County, Vanderburgh County, Madison County, Vermillion County, and Tippecanoe County.

Primaries

On May 6, 2008, Indiana held its presidential primaries:

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Their last predictions before election day were:
Pre-election polling was always tight, although McCain generally had a slight lead in 3 poll averages throughout the entire general election, including the final weeks of the election. Rasmussen Reports never had Obama winning a state poll. In the last opinion polling before the election, conducted by , Barack Obama led John McCain 49% to 48%. The final 3 poll average gave McCain the lead 49% to 46%, with undecided voters deciding the election.

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $1,758,471 in the state. Barack Obama raised $3,400,475.

Advertising and visits

Obama massively outspent McCain in this state. Obama and his interest groups spent $17,796,704. McCain and his interest groups spent $3,160,264. The Democratic ticket visited this state 8 times. The Republican ticket visited 5 times.

Analysis

Historically, Indiana has been the most Republican state in the Great Lakes region. However, polling in September and October showed that Indiana was possibly turning into a swing state in 2008. George W. Bush easily captured Indiana's 11 electoral votes in 2004, defeating Democrat John Kerry by more than 20%. In contrast, most polls from the summer of 2008 onward showed only single-digit margins.
The race was as close as expected. Indiana's polls closed at 6 p.m. local time. The state has often been among the first to be called for the Republican candidate; in 2004, for instance, the state was called for Bush almost as soon as the polls in the Central Time Zone portion of the state closed. However, the race for the state was too close to call at 6pm, sending an early signal of potential upset to voters throughout the rest of the country. Indiana still had not been decided when most media outlets declared Obama president-elect at 11 p.m. Eastern time. Indiana was finally called for Senator Obama at around 6 a.m. Eastern on November 5. Ultimately, Obama ended up carrying Indiana by 1,374,039 votes to John McCain's 1,345,648 votes, a difference of 28,391 votes. The Libertarian candidate polled 29,257 votes - more than the margin of Obama's win.
At the same time as Obama captured Indiana's 11 electoral votes, incumbent Republican Governor Mitch Daniels was reelected to a second term with 57.84% of the vote over Democrat Jill Long Thompson who received 40.04%. Libertarian Andy Horning received 2.12%. At the state level, Democrats picked up one seat in the Indiana House of Representatives.

Results

Results breakdown

By county

Obama won only 15 of Indiana's counties compared to 77 for McCain. However those 15 counties make up 44% of the state's population. Obama carried the state largely by trouncing McCain in Marion County, home to increasingly Democratic Indianapolis, by over 106,000 votes. Kerry narrowly won Marion County in 2004; prior to that it last supported a Democrat in 1964. Obama also won in Vigo County, home to Terre Haute and a noted bellwether; it has voted for the winner of every presidential election all but twice since 1892. Not a single county voted more Republican in the 2008 election than in 2004. Although Obama lost Allen County, home to Indiana's second largest city, Fort Wayne, by four points, he won in Fort Wayne city proper by 6 points.
Obama also dominated Gary and northwestern Indiana, traditionally the most Democratic region of the state. Many of the voters in this area already knew Obama, as this region makes up most of the Indiana side of the Chicago metropolitan area and the Chicago media market; Obama is from Chicago and has aired ads here for over a decade. He also did very well in counties where colleges and universities are located, including St. Joseph, Vigo Monroe, Delaware, Tippecanoe, and Porter.
McCain dominated Indianapolis's traditionally heavily Republican suburbs, although Obama reduced the Republican margin from past presidential elections. McCain also did well in traditionally Democratic Southern Indiana. Obama only managed to win three counties in this region, one of which was Vanderburgh County, where the city of Evansville is located.
CountyObamaVotesMcCainVotesOthersVotesTotal
Adams36.5%4,92862.2%8,4041.3%18113,513
Allen47.3%71,26351.7%77,7931.0%1,491150,547
Bartholomew43.7%13,56755.0%17,0671.3%40931,043
Benton41.0%1,56357.2%2,1831.8%683,814
Blackford49.2%2,67749.4%2,6901.4%745,441
Boone36.6%9,75262.4%16,6221.0%27326,647
Brown47.8%3,85450.4%4,0601.8%1418,055
Carroll42.8%3,73655.6%4,8581.6%1428,736
Cass44.8%7,01153.3%8,3461.9%29615,653
Clark46.0%21,95353.1%25,3260.9%44647,725
Clay43.5%4,95455.0%6,2671.5%17411,395
Clinton42.8%5,30755.8%6,9191.3%17512,401
Crawford48.2%2,28650.4%2,3931.4%654,744
Daviess31.8%3,37067.1%7,0981.1%11810,586
Dearborn32.1%7,12367.0%14,8860.9%20822,217
Decatur37.1%3,89261.5%6,4491.4%14710,488
DeKalb41.9%7,17557.0%9,7801.1%19417,149
Delaware57.0%28,38441.9%20,9161.1%56349,863
Dubois47.1%8,74851.3%9,5261.6%29118,565
Elkhart44.0%31,39855.1%39,3960.9%66471,458
Fayette46.4%4,38952.0%4,9171.6%1569,462
Floyd44.5%16,26354.6%19,9570.9%31736,537
Fountain41.8%3,09456.1%4,1582.1%1587,410
Franklin32.1%3,40466.1%7,0181.8%18810,610
Fulton41.1%3,70257.2%5,1471.7%1579,006
Gibson42.8%6,45555.9%8,4491.3%19115,095
Grant43.0%11,29356.0%14,7341.0%27226,299
Greene41.9%5,70956.4%7,6911.7%22913,629
Hamilton38.6%49,70460.7%78,4010.7%959129,064
Hancock34.7%11,87464.2%22,0081.1%37134,253
Harrison40.3%7,28858.3%10,5511.4%25218,091
Hendricks37.8%24,54861.2%39,7281.0%67964,955
Henry47.2%10,05951.1%10,8961.7%36421,319
Howard46.3%17,87152.4%20,2481.3%50538,624
Huntington35.8%5,84363.0%10,2911.2%19416,328
Jackson42.3%7,35456.0%9,7261.7%29417,374
Jasper39.2%5,04459.8%7,6691.3%16212,875
Jay45.1%3,74852.9%4,4012.0%1668,315
Jefferson46.4%6,25552.3%7,0531.3%18213,490
Jennings44.9%5,31252.9%6,2612.2%26611,839
Johnson36.8%21,55362.2%36,4871.0%60458,644
Knox46.1%7,56952.6%8,6391.3%21616,424
Kosciusko30.6%9,23668.0%20,4881.4%41030,134
LaGrange38.6%3,66360.1%5,7021.3%1269,491
Lake66.7%139,30132.5%67,7420.8%1,714208,757
LaPorte60.2%28,25838.2%17,9181.6%74346,919
Lawrence38.9%7,20859.4%11,0181.7%30818,534
Madison52.6%30,15246.0%26,4031.4%78557,340
Marion63.8%241,98735.4%134,3130.8%3,062379,362
Marshall42.5%7,88956.1%10,4061.4%25518,550
Martin34.8%1,70663.7%3,1221.5%754,903
Miami39.4%5,56458.9%8,3121.7%23714,113
Monroe65.6%41,45033.4%21,1181.0%64763,215
Montgomery39.3%6,01359.3%9,0601.4%21215,285
Morgan35.9%10,33062.9%18,1291.2%35228,811
Newton43.4%2,62554.6%3,3012.0%1196,045
Noble41.6%7,06457.0%9,6731.4%23716,974
Ohio39.7%1,15858.7%1,7131.6%472,918
Orange41.9%3,39056.1%4,5362.0%1608,086
Owen43.7%3,57054.0%4,4152.3%1858,170
Parke42.0%2,92456.1%3,9091.9%1316,964
Perry60.6%5,14137.7%3,2021.7%1478,490
Pike44.8%2,70053.4%3,2211.8%1076,028
Porter53.0%39,17845.8%33,8571.2%88173,916
Posey45.6%5,82853.3%6,8041.1%13912,771
Pulaski41.3%2,46656.8%3,3881.8%1105,964
Putnam43.3%6,33455.2%8,0861.5%22614,646
Randolph44.8%4,83953.5%5,7881.7%18110,808
Ripley34.4%4,18763.9%7,7941.7%20712,188
Rush42.3%3,22956.0%4,2711.7%1297,629
St. Joseph58.0%68,71041.0%48,5101.0%1,169118,389
Scott48.1%4,27150.1%4,4451.8%1618,877
Shelby39.8%6,98758.8%10,3331.4%25417,574
Spencer49.5%5,03949.1%5,0011.4%14110,181
Starke50.5%4,77847.2%4,4732.3%2159,466
Steuben44.5%6,28454.2%7,6741.3%18814,146
Sullivan48.8%4,28449.4%4,3431.8%1558,782
Switzerland45.0%1,63853.3%1,9401.7%623,640
Tippecanoe55.2%37,78143.6%29,8221.2%83368,436
Tipton41.5%3,25056.9%4,4521.6%1257,827
Union36.6%1,22461.5%2,0611.9%633,348
Vanderburgh50.8%39,42348.3%37,5120.9%72177,656
Vermillion56.1%4,00342.2%3,0101.7%1227,135
Vigo57.3%25,04041.5%18,1211.2%54543,706
Wabash39.3%5,45659.4%8,2381.3%17713,871
Warren43.9%1,75554.2%2,1661.9%773,998
Warrick43.0%12,32955.9%16,0131.1%32328,665
Washington40.4%4,56257.6%6,5192.0%22411,305
Wayne47.1%13,45951.0%14,5581.9%54528,562
Wells33.7%4,40365.0%8,5041.3%16613,073
White45.0%4,83953.2%5,7311.8%19710,767
Whitley38.6%5,86260.1%9,1241.3%20215,188

By congressional district

Although Barack Obama narrowly won the state and its 11 electoral votes, John McCain carried six congressional districts in Indiana, including all four held by Republicans and two held by Democrats.
DistrictMcCainObamaRepresentative
37.38%61.76%Pete Visclosky
44.72%54.10%Joe Donnelly
56.22%42.84%Mark Souder
55.90%43.03%Steve Buyer
58.90%39.79%Dan Burton
52.46%46.18%Mike Pence
28.35%70.89%André Carson
51.30%47.41%Brad Ellsworth
49.70%49.06%Baron Hill

Electors

Technically the voters of Indiana cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Indiana is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 11 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:
  1. Jeffrey L. Chidester
  2. Butch Morgan
  3. Michelle Boxell
  4. Charlotte Martin
  5. Jerry J. Lux
  6. Connie Southworth
  7. Alan P. Hogan
  8. Myrna E. Brown
  9. Clarence Benjamin Leatherbury
  10. Daniel J. Parker
  11. Cordelia Lewis Burks