2009 Greek legislative election
Early parliamentary elections were held in Greece on 4 October 2009. Elections were not required until September 2011, but on 2 September 2009 Prime Minister Kostas Karamanlis of New Democracy announced that he would request President Karolos Papoulias dissolve Parliament and call elections. Parliament was dissolved on 9 September.
The result was a victory for the opposition PASOK party led by George Papandreou, who became the new Prime Minister. New Democracy lost 61 of its 152 seats, with its vote share dropping by over 8 percentage points.
Voting was mandatory; however there are no sanctions or penalties for not voting.
Background
Participating parties
A total of 23 parties participated in the elections. Six of them participated in only one or two parliamentary constituencies.- New Democracy
- Panhellenic Socialist Movement
- Communist Party of Greece
- Popular Orthodox Rally
- Coalition of the Radical Left
- Ecologists Greens
- Marxist-Leninist Communist Party of Greece
- Communist Party of Greece
- Workers Revolutionary Party
- Democratic Revival
- Union of Centrists
- Popular Union – Chrysi Avyi
- Dimosthenis Vergis – Greek Ecologists
- Organization for the Reconstruction of the Communist Party of Greece
- Koinonia
- Democrats
- Anticapitalist Left Cooperation for the Overthrow
- Light – Truth – Justice 2
- Friends of Man 1
- Regional Urban Development 1
- Old Republic 1
- Smoking Groups for Art and Artistic Creation, 1
- I Give Away Land, I Give Away Debts - Panagrarian Labour Movement of Greece, 2
- 1 The party ran in one parliamentary constituency.
- 2 The party ran in two parliamentary constituencies.
Opinion polls
- According to Greek law, opinion polls may be published no later than a fortnight before election day; in this case until midnight, 18 September.
- Most pollsters use samples between 1000 and 2000 people; they claim a margin of error of approximately ±2%.
- Numbers below are percentages of opinion poll responders; final tally projections are shown in italics.
| Source | Date | ND | PASOK | KKE | SYRIZA | LAOS | EcoGreens | Other, or undecided |
| Kappa Research for To Vima | 09-09-06 | 24.1 | 30.8 | 7.1 | 3 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 28.3 |
| MRB for Real News | 09-09-06 | 27.3 | 33.3 | 6.9 | 3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | |
| RASS for To Paron | 09-09-06 | 29.5 | 35.2 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 3.9 | |
| Alco for Proto Thema | 09-09-06 | 27.9 | 34.2 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | |
| MARC for Ethnos | 09-09-06 | 27.9 | 34.4 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 19.1 |
| GPO for Mega TV | 09-09-07 | 26.5 | 32.0 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 22.6 |
| MRB for Real FM | 09-09-08 | 27.7 | 33.1 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 21.8 |
| Metron Analysis for ANT1 TV | 09-09-08 | 29.6 | 35.7 | 6.3 | 4 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 18.2 |
| Public Issue for Skai TV and Kathimerini | 09-09-10 | 35.5 | 41 | 8.5 | 4 | 7 | 2 | n/a |
| VPRC for www.tvxs.gr | 09-09-11 | 35.5 | 41 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 2.5 | n/a |
| Metron Analysis for ANT1 TV and Imerisia | 09-09-12 | 30.1 / 35.2 | 36.6 / 42.7 | 6.9 / 8.1 | 3 / 3.5 | 4.9 / 5.7 | 2.6 / 3 | 15.9 / n/a |
| MARC for Ethnos | 09-09-13 | 28.9 / 35 | 35 / 40 | 7.6 / 9 | 3.2 / 4.5 | 5.9 / 6.5 | 1.7 / 2 | 17.7 / n/a |
| RASS for To Paron | 09-09-13 | 30.3 | 35.1 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 15.1 |
| MRB for Real News | 09-09-13 | 30.1 / 35.1 | 35.2 / 41 | 7.2 / 8.4 | 3.2 / 3.7 | 5.7 / 6.6 | 2.1 / 2.6 | 16.5 / n/a |
| Alco for Proto Thema | 09-09-13 | 29.7 | 35.9 | 7 | 3.1 | 5 | 1.8 | 17.5 |
| Pulse for Apogevmatini | 09-09-13 | 31.2 | 35.9 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 4 | 2.5 | 17.4 |
| GPO for Mega TV | 09-09-14 | 29 | 34.9 | 6.5 | 3 | 5.9 | 2 | 18.7 |
| Metron Analysis for ANT1 TV | 09-09-14 | 29.7 | 37.6 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 2 | 14.3 |
| MRB for Real FM | 09-09-14 | 29.6 | 35.3 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 5 | 2.1 | 17.6 |
| MARC for Alpha TV | 09-09-15 | 29.4 / 34.9 | 36.6 / 41.2 | 7.3 / 8.3 | 3.2 / 4.4 | 5.4 / 6.1 | 2 / 2.5 | 16.1 / n/a |
| VPRC for www.tvxs.gr | 09-09-15 | 34.5 | 42.5 | 8.5 | 4 | 5.5 | 2.5 | n/a |
| MRB for www.newstime.gr | 09-09-16 | 29.7 / 35 | 35.9 / 42 | 7.4 / 8 | 3.5 / 4 | 5.5 / 6 | 2.5 / 2.5 | 15.3 / n/a |
| Public Issue for Skai TV and Kathimerini | 09-09-17 | 35.5 | 41.5 | 8.5 | 4 | 6 | 2 | n/a |
| Kappa Research for To Vima | 09-09-18 | 27.6 | 34.4 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 19.6 |
| MARC for Ethnos | 09-09-18 | 29.2 / 34.9 | 36.7 / 41.6 | 7.4 / 8.4 | 3.4 / 4.2 | 5.7 / 6.3 | 1.6 / 2.2 | 16 / n/a |
| Alco for Alter TV | 09-09-18 | 31 / 35 | 38.5 / 43 | 6.7 / 8.4 | 3.3 / 3.8 | 5.5 / 6.3 | 1.5 / 2 | 13.5 / n/a |
| GPO for Mega TV | 09-09-18 | 30.2 | 36.2 | 7.2 | 3 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 15.1 |
| Metron Analysis for ANT1 TV | 09-09-18 | 30.8 / 35.6 | 37.7 / 43.5 | 6.6 / 7.6 | 3.3 / 3.8 | 4.9 / 5.6 | 2.2 / 2.5 | 14.5 / n/a |
| MARC for Alpha TV | 09-09-18 | 29.5 / 34.8 | 37.2 / 42.3 | 7.2 / 8.2 | 3.2 / 4.1 | 5.3 / 6.2 | 1.7 / 2.3 | 15.9 / n/a |
Although pollsters were actively polling until 2 October their findings were no longer made public within Greece, in accordance with the electoral law.
The next set of published predictions were the election day exit polls, announced starting at 7 PM, 4 October.
Seats in Parliament">Greek Parliament">Parliament
The electoral law for this election specifies that:- A party or a coalition of parties elects MPs only if its nationwide tally exceeds 3% of the total valid vote
- 260 of 300 total seats are apportioned proportionally
- The first-past-the post party or coalition receives a 40-seat bonus
| Source | Date | ND | PASOK | KKE | SYRIZA | LAOS | EcoGreens | Other |
| Public Issue for Skai TV and Kathimerini | 09-09-17 | 97 | 153 | 23 | 11 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
| Alco for Alter TV | 09-09-18 | 94 | 158 | 21 | 11 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
| Metron Analysis for ANT1 TV | 09-09-18 | 96 | 158 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
| MARC for Alpha TV | 09-09-18 | 95 | 155 | 22 | 11 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
According to the constitutional principle of the dedēlōménē, a party or a coalition needs a parliamentary majority of 151 total seats in order to form a government. In the eventuality that no party or coalition are able to secure 151 seats, another election will be called. For this occasion the electoral law specifies that the leading party will receive a 50-seat bonus.
Events before the election
- September 11, 2009: "Ecologists Greece" announced their electoral alliance with the Popular Orthodox Rally
- September 16, 2009: A total of 28 parties submitted candidate lists to the Areios Pagos. The court will vet the candidacies' legal standing and officially declare lawful candidates within about a week. In past elections, some candidacies were rejected because the candidates had held certain public offices which they had not resigned in a timely fashion.
- September 21, 2009: NET state television, in simulcast with major commercial TV stations, broadcast the debate among the leaders of ND, PASOK, KKE, SYRIZA, LAOS, and the Ecologist Greens. The party leaders questioned by a team of journalists from the TV stations participating in the simulcast. Questions and responses were rotated and timed. Each party leader was allowed to place one question to one other party leader of their choice directly.
- September 21, 2009: The Areios Pagos announced the parties participating in the elections. 5 of the 28 applications were rejected; namely: "Ecologists Greece – Konstantinos Papanikolas – Political Catharsis", "Hellenic Direct Democracy Movement", "New Greek Republic", "Where are you, Papadopoulos? – Party of Greek Aliens – Terrorise the Terrorists", "Future of the Greeks - Servants of the Greek People".
- September 22, 2009: The two likely Prime Ministers, Kostas Karamanlis and George Papandreou, debated for 75 minutes. The debate was divided in 5 sections. Both leaders had 2 sessions of 3 minutes and 1 session of 1 minute. The moderator had 1 minute to introduce the subject. The debate was moderated by journalist Maria Houkli, and was simulcast as per the multi-party debate above.
- October 3, 2009: It was announced that seven pollsters pooled their resources to conduct a joint exit poll, which was broadcast by all TV and news stations at 7 PM, the time when voting officially ended. The pollsters procured approximately 14,000 randomised responses and were aiming for a ±1.5% margin of error in their earliest predictions. Singular Logic, the IT contractor for the Ministry of Interior, implemented a secure system to obtain initial tallies from approximately 4,000 voting stations by SMS. They were thus able to project final results within ±0.2% by 9 PM and within ±0.1% by midnight.
- October 3, 2009: Publicised odds by international bookmakers were roughly in agreement with the latest predictions as outlined in the tables above. Sports betting is the only form of betting allowed in Greece.
- October 4, 2009: Voting commenced at 7 AM and was completed at 7 PM, in 20,937 stations throughout the country. Turnout was estimated at slightly more than 7 million.
Exit polls and projections
| Joint exit poll | October 4, 2009 | ND | PASOK | KKE | SYRIZA | LAOS | EcoGreens | Others |
| Vote percentage | 7 PM | 34.3-37.3 | 41.0-44.0 | 7.3-8.3 | 3.9-4.9 | 5.0-6.0 | 2.0-3.0 | - |
| Seats in Parliament | 7 PM | 94-100 | 151-159 | 20-22 | 11-13 | 14-16 | 0 | - |
The revised results of the exit poll conducted jointly by pollsters Alco, GPO, MARC, Metron Analysis, MRB, Opinion, and RASS were made public at 8:50 PM Eastern European DST. The margin of error claimed is less than 0.5%:
| Joint exit poll | October 4, 2009 | ND | PASOK | KKE | SYRIZA | LAOS | EcoGreens | Others |
| Vote percentage | 8:50 PM | 33.9 | 43.8 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | - |
| Seats in Parliament | 8:50 PM | 92 | 160 | 21 | 12 | 15 | 0 | - |
The statistical projections by Singular Logic and the Ministry of Interior, based on actual returns, were made public at 9 PM Eastern European DST. The margin of error claimed is 0.3%:
| Statistical projection | October 4, 2009 | ND | PASOK | KKE | SYRIZA | LAOS | EcoGreens | Others |
| Vote percentage | 9 PM | 33.8 | 43.8 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| Seats in Parliament | 9 PM | 92 | 160 | 21 | 12 | 15 | 0 | - |
Results
Results by region
Post-election events
- October 4, 2009: Incumbent Prime Minister and New Democracy party leader Kostas Karamanlis conceded defeat and stated that he is resigning his offices, and will not stand as candidate at the party convention summoned to elect his successor next month. The 33.5% tally marks a historic low for the party since its founding in 1974.
- October 5, 2009: The Speaker of the outgoing Parliament notified the President of the Republic about the election returns. Immediately afterwards incumbent Prime Minister Kostas Karamanlis tended his resignation to the President. Panhellenic Socialist Movement leader George Papandreou was then summoned by the President and given a mandate to form a Cabinet as the Prime Minister-designate. PASOK Member of the European Parliament Stavros Lambrinidis said the result was "remarkable".
- October 6, 2009: George Papandreou was sworn in as Prime Minister at 11 AM, and moved into the Máximos Mansion, the Prime Ministerial office. The names of the new ministers were announced at 7 PM. It became known that George Papandreou had offered the EcoGreens one of the two positions of Undersecretary for the Environment, but the offer was turned down.
- October 7, 2009: The new Cabinet was sworn in at 11 AM. The New Democracy party congress is to convene and elect its new leader at November 7, 2009.