2010 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
The 2010 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 2, 2010, alongside other midterm elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as to the United States House of Representatives. A primary election was held on September 14. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Judd Gregg decided to retire instead of seeking a fourth term. Republican nominee Kelly Ayotte won the open seat by over 23 points. As of 2019, this is the last time a Republican was elected to the U.S. Senate from New Hampshire. This was the first open seat election since 1992.
Background
Gregg was reelected with 66% of the vote in 2004, and indicated that he would seek a fourth term in 2010. New Hampshire trended Democratic in the 2006 and 2008 elections, with Republican incumbents losing both of the state's House seats and its other Senate seat to Democrats, but polling conducted in late December 2008 showed Gregg defeating both of the state's U.S. Representatives in a hypothetical match-up.In February 2009, President Barack Obama offered, and Gregg accepted, nomination to the position of United States Secretary of Commerce. New Hampshire's Democratic Governor John Lynch announced he would appoint Bonnie Newman, former Assistant Secretary of Commerce for economic development in the Reagan administration, to serve as Senator for New Hampshire until the election in 2010. Newman announced that she would not run for election in 2010, nor would she endorse any candidate in the race.
On February 12, 2009, however, Gregg withdrew his nomination for Commerce Secretary. He cited "irresolvable conflicts" over policy related to the Commerce Department as the main reasons for his withdrawal, but also indicated support for President Obama. Gregg continued to serve as a senator from New Hampshire, as he did not resign from the Senate during the nomination process. At the time of the withdrawal, Gregg indicated that he would not run for reelection in 2010. However, at a subsequent press conference, Gregg clarified that he would "probably not" run for reelection, leading to speculation that was not eliminating the possibility completely.
On April 1, 2009, Gregg reaffirmed that he would not run.
Meanwhile, Democratic U.S. Representative Paul Hodes began his Senate campaign. He was the only major announced candidate until Attorney General Kelly Ayotte announced her bid for the Republican nomination in early July 2009. On November 9, 2009, Republican Ovide Lamontagne joined the race as well.
Republican primary
Candidates
- Kelly Ayotte, former New Hampshire Attorney General
- Tom Alciere, state representative
- Gerard Beloin
- Jim Bender, businessman
- Bill Binnie, businessman
- Dennis Lamare
- Ovide Lamontagne, 1992 congressional candidate and 1996 gubernatorial nominee; chairman of 2004 platform committee
Endorsements
Polling
Results
General election
Candidates
- Kelly Ayotte, former state Attorney General
- Ken Blevens,
- Chris Booth,
- Paul Hodes, U.S. Representative since 2007
Campaign
Ayotte was endorsed by the Concord Monitor and the Nashua Telegraph.
Debates
- October 11 in Henniker at New England College
- October 28 in Manchester
Predictions
Polling
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | Error | Paul Hodes | Jim Bender | Other | Undecided | |
| July 19–27, 2010 | 453 | ± 4.4% | 39% | 36% | -- | 25% | |
| July 23–25, 2010 | 900 | ± 3.26% | 43% | 42% | -- | 16% | |
| July 12, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 43% | 10% | 8% | |
| May 11, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 41% | 39% | 8% | 13% | |
| April 12–21, 2010 | 512 | ± 4.4% | 37% | 34% | -- | 29% | |
| April 17–18, 2010 | 1474 | ± 2.6% | 43% | 39% | -- | 18% | |
| January 27 – February 3, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 36% | 27% | 2% | 35% |
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | Error | Paul Hodes | Bill Binnie | Other | Undecided | |
| August 5, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 40% | 46% | 8% | 7% | |
| July 19–27, 2010 | 453 | ± 4.4% | 38% | 41% | -- | 21% | |
| July 23–25, 2010 | 900 | ± 3.26% | 41% | 46% | -- | 13% | |
| July 12, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 38% | 49% | 7% | 8% | |
| May 11, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 37% | 49% | 6% | 8% | |
| April 12–21, 2010 | 512 | ± 4.4% | 36% | 38% | -- | 26% | |
| April 17–18, 2010 | 1474 | ± 2.6% | 42% | 45% | -- | 13% | |
| April 7, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 37% | 49% | 4% | 10% | |
| March 8, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 36% | 46% | 4% | 14% | |
| February 10, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 41% | 42% | 3% | 13% | |
| February 1–3, 2010 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 35% | -- | 15% | |
| January 27 – February 3, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 34% | 30% | 2% | 33% | |
| January 12, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 43% | 37% | 5% | 15% |
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | Error | Paul Hodes | Ovide Lamontagne | Other | Undecided | |
| July 19–27, 2010 | 453 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 36% | 1% | 21% | |
| July 23–25, 2010 | 900 | ± 3.26% | 43% | 38% | -- | 18% | |
| July 12, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 40% | 43% | 9% | 9% | |
| May 11, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 43% | 38% | 8% | 11% | |
| April 12–21, 2010 | 512 | ± 4.4% | 36% | 37% | -- | 26% | |
| April 17–18, 2010 | 1474 | ± 2.6% | 44% | 37% | -- | 19% | |
| April 7, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 39% | 44% | 7% | 11% | |
| March 8, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 42% | 38% | 5% | 15% | |
| February 10, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 38% | 4% | 13% | |
| February 1–3, 2010 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 36% | -- | 13% | |
| January 27 – February 3, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 38% | 29% | 2% | 30% | |
| January 12, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 45% | 38% | 6% | 11% | |
| December 29, 2009 | 566 | ± 4.1% | 31% | 37% | -- | 32% |