2018 Costa Rican general election


General elections were held in Costa Rica in 2018 to elect both the President and Legislative Assembly. The first round of the presidential election was held on February 4, 2018, with the two highest-ranked candidates being Christian singer and Congressman Fabricio Alvarado Muñoz from the conservative National Restoration Party and writer and former Minister Carlos Alvarado Quesada from the progressive Citizens’ Action Party, gaining 24% and 21% of the votes respectively. As no candidate received more than 40% of the first round vote, a second round run-off election was held on April 1, 2018 and was won by Carlos Alvarado Quesada, with a landslide victory of 60.6% of the vote.
The previously dominant National Liberation Party suffered its worst results to date, ending third in the presidential run for the first time in its history with its candidate former Legislative Assembly President Antonio Álvarez Desanti winning only 18%. Other notable candidates were lawyer and entrepreneur Rodolfo Piza from the center-right Social Christian Unity Party with 16% and right-wing populist Juan Diego Castro with 9%.
In the 57-seat Legislative Assembly, the National Liberation Party won 17 seats, the National Restoration Party won 14 seats, the Citizens' Action Party won 10 seats, the Social Christian Unity Party won 9 seats, the National Integration Party won 4 seats, the Social Christian Republican Party won 2 seats and left-wing Broad Front won 1 seat.

Electoral system

The President of Costa Rica is elected using a modified two-round system in which a candidate must receive at least 40% of the vote to win in the first round; if no candidate wins in the first round, a runoff will be held between the two candidates with the biggest quantity of votes.
The 57 members of the Legislative Assembly are elected using closed list proportional representation through the largest remainder method from seven multi-member constituencies with between four and 19 seats, which are based on the seven provinces. Party lists were required to alternate between male and female candidates, with parties also required to have three or four of their seven regional lists headed by a female candidate.

Presidential primaries

Citizens' Action Party

The internal elections for the Citizens' Action Party were held on July 9, 2017. The candidates were two former ministers of the Solís Rivera administration; writer Carlos Alvarado, former Minister of Labour and Social Issues, and economist Welmer Ramos, former Economy Minister. Alvarado won by 56% of the votes. Deputies Epsy Campbell, Ottón Solis and Vicepresident Ana Helena Chacón declined a potential run.
Carlos Alvarado was the first one of the party to announce his intention to run under the slogan of "I choose the future" and ran under a progressive platform, which sought to exalt the achievements of Luis Guillermo Solis's government and promised to continue with it. Meanwhile, Welmer Ramos's campaign focused more on a moderate and conservative campaign, under the slogan "A citizen like you" and openly criticized the then government to appeal to those who were upset with the administration.

Libertarian Movement

The Libertarian Movement had its first primaries on June 30, 2017.
Candidates were deputy Natalia Diaz, and historic leader and deputy Otto Guevara Guth, who will attempt to run for presidency for the fifth time. Guevara won the primary over Diaz by a 10% margin. Otto Guevara's primary campaign was based under a right-wing populist inclination, stating that Donald Trump's presidential campaign had given him new inspiration to run, while Natalia Diaz's campaign promised to bring a new face to the party and offer a new alternative to the party's establishment.
After the 2016 municipal elections, the party lost its only mayor and 258 aldermen, leaving it with little power. Plus, due to Guevara's turnabout from libertarianism to religious conservatism, many party adherents created a new party: the Liberal Progressive Party, under former transport minister Eliécer Feinzag's leadership; or joined Social Christian Unity Party because of its new liberal stance on politics.

National Liberation Party

The internal elections for the National Liberation Party were held on April 2, 2017. The candidates were Sigifredo Aiza Campos, former deputy for the Guanacaste province, then deputy and radio host Rolando González Ulloa, Antonio Álvarez Desanti president of the Legislative Assembly, former minister and presidential candidate who was supported by former president Óscar Arias Sánchez, and former president José María Figueres Olsen. Álvarez Desanti was chosen as the party's candidate.

Social Christian Unity Party

The Social Christian primary was held on June 4, 2017 with former president of the Health System and previous candidate Rodolfo Piza winning over then deputy Rafael Ortiz.

Other candidates

Former Public Safety Minister Juan Diego Castro launched his unexpected presidential campaign presenting himself as a political outsider and with a strong anti-establishment and anti-corruption speech. Promising to "rule by decree" and with a very loud "hard hand" rhetoric, Castro has been compared to figures like Donald Trump and Rodrigo Duterte, and accused of right-wing populism and far-right positions, albeit he rejects the comparisons. He ran as the National Integration Party's nominee.
Four of the minor candidates lean towards the conservative evangelical community. These are former journalist and San José deputy Fabricio Alvarado for National Restoration Party, journalist Stephanie Campos for Costa Rican Renewal Party, perennial candidate and San José deputy Óscar López for Accessibility without Exclusion, and lawyer and twice Cartago deputy Mario Redondo for Christian Democratic Alliance a former Cartaginese provincial party but which expanded to the national level. The left-wing Broad Front nominated Alajuela deputy Edgardo Araya. The far-left Workers' Party chose the trade unionist and high school professor Jhon Vega as its candidate. The right-wing New Generation Party chose its founder Sergio Mena as the presidential nominee. Finally, former Social Christian Unity Party's presidential nominee Rodolfo Hernández launched his presidential campaign with the newly formed Social Christian Republican Party, a party formed by former PUSC members dissatisfied with the liberal-controlled Social Christian Central Committee, who claimed the party had lost its Calderonist origins

Presidential candidates

Other presidential candidates

Campaign

Several topics like unemployment, corruption, economics, insecurity and poverty are among the main issues that concern the electorate according to polls.
But one particular event that cause uproar in the campaign was the "Cementazo" scandal. A corruption scandal involving political figures of all the main parties, including candidate Otto Guevara, whose properties and parliamentary office were raided by the General Attorney investigating the case. Some analysts point to the Cementazo scandal as one of the reasons for the unexpected ascension in polls of hardline anti-establishment candidate Castro.
During the campaign Castro made a series of highly controversial statements that often caused polemic reactions. Among other things, he accused the Judiciary of having some of its female members ascending due to sexual favors, something that sprang harsh responses from female judges and judicial workers. Political figures from other parties reacted with outrage including Desanti's wife Nuria Marin and PAC's vice-president nominee Epsy Campbell. He later clarified that he was referring to one particular case of a known female friend of his. He also called for the removal of the prohibition on oil exploitation and gold mining calling those who opposed it "eco-terrorists and extremists". Desanti also said that "extremists should not dictate environmental policies" but mentioned that he opposes oil exploitation. Both Alvarado Quesada and Araya are staunch opponents of all forms of oil exploration and exploitation.
A surprising ruling from the Inter-American Court of Human Rights extending all rights enjoyed by heterosexual couples to same-sex couples made after Costa Rica's government lodged a motion for clarification also had an impact on the campaign. The ruling may require up to 22 signatory countries of the Pact of San José that recognize the contentious authority of the IACHR to change their laws to legalize same-sex marriage. Most polls show that most Costa Ricans oppose gay marriage albeit with large numbers supporting it. Opponents of gay marriage were outraged by the ruling, causing an increase in social media support for Christian singer and journalist Fabricio Alvarado Muñoz from the staunchly conservative National Restoration Party. Alvarado Muñoz was, for the first time for an Evangelical candidate, attracting Catholic voters. Nevertheless, Alvarado Muñoz' gain also saw a counter-reaction. Social media support for progressive pro-gay marriage candidate Carlos Alvarado Quesada was also notable, particularly among millennials and centennials who mostly support socially liberal policies. Some analysts point to a possible polarization between conservative and progressive voters, or among religious and secular or older and younger generations depending on the measure, which pushed both Alvarados into the second round. At least two homophobic attacks were reported.
During the run-off campaign, Alvarado Muñoz’ strategy focused on linking his rival with the somewhat unpopular government at the time by pointing out its flaws, errors and scandals. On the contrary, Alvarado Quesada tried to distance himself from Luis Guillermo Solís’ Administration, but at the same time highlighted its achievements. Muñoz also reinforced his idea of defending "pro-life and family" values, whilst Quesada insisted in wanting an inclusive country with no "second class citizens". Quesada's strategy focused in presenting Muñoz as inexperienced and unprepared, pointing out his delay in presenting his second government program as promised and contradictions between him and some of his close collaborators.
A series of controversies affected Muñoz' presidential run, including accusations of plagiarism on his government program, a delay in the presentation of his party's financial reports, high payments to him and some other high-ranking party members for services during the campaign, etc. But probably one of the most damaging was the content of a book written by pastor and tele-evangelist Ronny Chaves calling "La Negrita" or Virgen de los Angeles a demon. Something that some analysts highlight as hurtful to many Catholics' feelings causing many of them to switch towards Carlos Alvarado. In fact, the Cartago Province which is Costa Rica's Catholic epicenter and see of the Basílica de Nuestra Señora de los Ángeles is where Quesada's support was higher, on the contrary Fabricio won by wide margin in the mostly Protestant province of Limón.
In the second round Carlos kept San José, Heredia and Cartago Provinces and all of the cantons he won in the first one, and managed to turn Alajuela and Guanacaste on his favor. He also won, again, the foreign vote winning all ballot booths overseas except Singapore were there was a tie. Fabricio kept Puntarenas and Limón as his strongholds and won in all cantons of Limon, most of the Punteranas cantons, four of the northern cantons of Alajuela and Sarapiqui in Heredia. Abstentionism was less during the second round for the first time in history.

Polling and voters' behavior

During pre-campaign Juan Diego Castro emerged as one of the most popular political figures with around 51% of positive opinions, followed by Antonio Álvarez Desanti with 36%, with Libertarian deputy Otto Guevara and former president José María Figueres as the ones with more negative opinions. After the PLN primary in which Desanti won over Figueres by slight margin, Desanti started the campaign as frontrunner for a while with up to 36% support in some early polls. Castro was also among the favorites even before he had a party supporting his candidacy. As the campaign continued Desanti suffered a constant decrease in voters' intent. Castro remained as frontrunner for most of 2017, but an erratic and heavily controversial campaign begins to affect him losing support in January. PUSC's Rodolfo Piza remained as second in some polls, later replaced by Castro but still in third place.
The "Cementazo" scandal affected heavily the parties involved especially during November and December when the Parliamentary Committee investigating the issue made most of its hearings, with all parties facing a reduction on their support.
The IACHR's ruling on same-sex marriage caused a turmoil in the country, with conservative candidate and staunch opponent Fabricio Alvarado showing a rapid increase in support passing from marginal percentages of around 2–6% to be in the lead with up to 17%. However, Carlos Alvarado's support also started to grow unusually fast especially in mid and late January with the later polls showing him surpassing other candidates including Castro and Piza, passing from sixth to third in a couple of days, and even in a technical tie with Desanti showing possibilities to go into the run-off. Castro appeared in fourth and Piza in fifth place as of late January. PAC's support historically tend to increase in January and after the debates, but it was also possible that its support came from more liberal voters fearful of a religious government.
According to polls Fabricio Alvarado Muñoz took most of his support from Evangelical Christian voters who represented around 70% of his supporters, followed by 20% Roman Catholics and 8% with no religion. Carlos Alvarado Quesada, on the contrary, was mostly supported by Catholics with 52% of his voters belonging to that denomination, followed by 29% non-religious and 13% Protestants. Alvarado Quesada was most popular among urban voters with higher education, whilst Alvarado Muñoz had strong support by those with only elementary or high school levels of education. Also Alvarado Quesada was more popular among voters under 35, whilst Alvarado Muñoz was more popular among women under 35 and voters of both sexes over 55.
A post-election study completed by the University of Costa Rica showed that Alvarado Quesada's success was in part due to his performance in the debates, his campaign and defense of the Rule of law. Whilst Alvarado Muñoz' supporters mentioned defense of the traditional family, the fact that he was a believer and being an alternative to PAC. Religion wasn't such an important factor as originally thought, but 71% of Alvarado Quesada's voters mentioned Ronny Chaves' anti-Catholic statements as something "bad or very bad", against 35% of Fabricio's voters expressing that such thing was indifferent to them. Roman Catholics were 60% more likely to vote for Carlos Alvarado than non-Catholics that were only 30%. Alvarado Quesada had also much more support from middle and High Classes especially from the urban areas and the Central Valley whilst Fabricio's support came from the periphery and coastal areas with higher poverty levels and where the population is lower and less willing to vote at all.

Polling tampering

The last poll of the second round scheduled for March 28 was canceled due to the fact that OPol Consultores' executives alleged that threats had been made against their collaborators. Shortly before this announcement, social media reported that a vehicle registered in the name of the private limited company to which the pollster belongs and led by the director of the company traveled with flags of National Restoration.
Also the poll published by the Institute of Population Studies of the National University, the only one that showed a wide advantage on the part of Carlos Alvarado over Fabricio, was questioned almost immediately by the digital newspaper El Mundo questioning its methodology. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal and the University's Council reaffirmed the validity of the poll. The IDESPO poll would be the closest to the electoral result of the second round together with an informal poll conducted by the Los Paleteros ice cream company.
After the campaign it was made public that during the second round the Executive Committee of the National Restoration Party had made payments to the polling company OPol according to financial reports submitted to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. Party officials reported that these were political consultancies unrelated to the polls, however, subsequent investigations by the newspaper La Nación discovered a contract for the payment of the six polls that were carried out during the second round campaign, of which five were published by El Mundo. In all of them Fabricio Alvarado appeared as the winner by a wide margin. They were immediately shared in the social media of the group and the candidate as well as party personalities and allies including deputy-elect and vice presidential candidate Jonathan Prendas and deputy Mario Redondo. Catherina Convertino, general manager of Opinión Política CyC, a private limited company that owns both OPol and El Mundo newspaper, confirmed to La Nación that the second round polls had been requested by Juan Carlos Campos, head of the National Restoration campaign and that they decided to make it public following the debt of the party in the total payment of the contract.

Opinion polls

Results

President

By province

First round
Abroad vote
Runoff
Abroad vote

Legislative Assembly

The National Liberation Party retains its parliamentary plurality despite being third on the presidential ticket with 17 seats, followed by the National Restoration Party obtaining 14, the first time in Costa Rica's history that a religious party gained such large number. The ruling party Citizens' Action became third with 10, also the first time in history that a ruling party is neither the second nor the third-largest party. However this situation will change after a break-up among the National Restoration deputies causes more than half to split from the party a few months after the election, thus turning PAC back into first minority. The Social Christian Unity Party gained one more seat. The left-wing Broad Front suffered a major setback losing most of its seats passing from 9 to 1, whilst right-wing National Integration returns to Congress for the first time in 20 years with 4 seats, but another schism between the party's leadership and the 2018's nominee Juan Diego Castro causes one of PIN's deputies to separate. The newly formed party Social Christian Republican gains two deputies.

By province

Reactions

Domestic

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