2020 New Zealand general election


The 2020 New Zealand general election will be held after the currently elected 52nd New Zealand Parliament is dissolved or expires. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has announced the election date as Saturday 19 September 2020.
Voters will elect 120 members to the House of Representatives under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional voting system, a proportional representation system in which 72 members are elected from single-member electorates and 48 members are elected from closed party lists.
After the previous election, the centre-left Labour Party, led by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, formed a minority coalition government with the New Zealand First party, with confidence and supply from the Green Party. The main opponent to the Labour–NZ First government is the centre-right National Party, led by Judith Collins. The ACT Party is the sole other party in Parliament, represented by a single MP. It will be the second general election where both major parties have female leaders.
A referendum on personal cannabis consumption is planned to be held at the same time, along with a referendum on euthanasia due to the End of Life Choice Bill passing its third reading in parliament.

Background

The final results of the 2017 election gave National 56 seats, while Labour and the Greens combined had 54 seats. New Zealand First won 9 seats, which put them in the position to give either National or Labour the 61 seats needed to form a government. On 19 October 2017, Winston Peters, leader of New Zealand First, announced that he would form a coalition government with Labour. On the same day, James Shaw, leader of the Green Party, announced that his party would give confidence and supply to a Labour–NZ First government.
The result of the election saw the Labour Party regain power after nine years in opposition, as well as the end of the Fifth National Government which had been in power for three terms. The 2017 election also saw the first party under MMP in New Zealand to lead a government without commanding the plurality of the party vote.
On 22 May 2020, a leadership election occurred, following two low polls, in which Todd Muller replaced Simon Bridges as leader of the National Party and Leader of the Opposition, and Nikki Kaye replaced Paula Bennett as deputy leader of the party. Muller resigned on 14 July 2020 for health reasons, leading to another leadership election later that day, in which Judith Collins was voted into the National leadership position.

Current standings

New Zealand uses the mixed-member proportional voting system to elect the House of Representatives. Each voter gets two votes, one for a political party and one for a local candidate. Political parties which meet the threshold receive seats in the House in proportion to the percentage of the party vote they receive. 72 of the 120 seats are filled by the MPs elected from the electorates, with the winner in each electorate determined by the first past the post method. The remaining 48 seats are filled by candidates from each party's closed party list. If a party wins more electorates than seats it is entitled to under the party vote, an overhang results; in this case, the House will add extra seats to cover the overhang.
The political party or party bloc with the majority of the seats in the House forms the Government. Since the introduction of MMP in 1996, no party has won enough votes to win an outright majority of seats. As a result, parties must negotiate with other parties to form a coalition government or a minority government.

Electorate boundaries

Electorate boundaries for the next election are required to be redrawn after each New Zealand census. The most recent census was held in 2018.
By law, the number of South Island general electorates is fixed at 16, with the number of North Island general electorates and Māori electorates increasing or decreasing in proportion to the population. Each electorate must have the same population, with a tolerance of plus or minus five percent. For the 2014 and 2017 elections, there were 48 North Island general electorates and seven Māori electorates, giving a total of 71 electorates.
On 23 September 2019, Statistics New Zealand announced that population growth necessitated one additional North Island general electorate, bringing the total number of North Island general electorates to 49 and the overall number of electorates to 72. Statistics New Zealand also announced that 11 North Island, three South Island, and two Māori electorates were above 5% tolerance, while five South Island electorates and one Māori electorate were below 5% tolerance.
The Representation Commission undertook a review of electoral boundaries. This review was commenced in October 2019 and was completed in April 2020. The boundaries will apply in the 2020 general election, and the subsequent general election. In total, 36 electorates remained unchanged, 35 electorates were modified, and one new electorate created. The most significant boundary changes occurred in the Auckland, Waikato, central Canterbury, and Otago regions, with smaller changes in the Northland and Tasman regions.
The new electorate was created in South Auckland and named. Taking area from the Hunua, Manurewa, and Papakura electorates, Takanini is predicted to be a National-tilting to marginal electorate. Takanini's creation cascaded existing electorates north through Auckland and south through Waikato. Significant changes to the north include Manukau East taking Sylvia Park and Panmure from Maungakiekie, with the electorate renamed Panmure-Ōtāhuhu; New Lynn taking the Waitakere Ranges from Helensville; Helensville taking Wellsford, Warkworth and the Kowhai Coast from Rodney and Northland, with the electorate renamed Kaipara ki Mahurangi; and Rodney taking Dairy Flat from Helensville and being renamed. To the south, Papakura took the entire Hunua electorate east of State Highway 1, in exchange for Hunua taking the northern part of the Waikato electorate as far south as, and including, Te Kauwhata. Hunua subsequently returned to its pre-2008 name, Port Waikato. Waikato took Te Aroha and the remainder of the Matamata-Piako District area from Coromandel, allowing Coromandel to take Omokoroa from Bay of Plenty.
In the South Island, Selwyn lost the Rakaia area to Rangitata, Mcleans Island and Christchurch Airport to Ilam, and Hornby South to Wigram. Ilam gained Avonhead from Wigram, allowing Wigram to take Aidanfield from Port Hills, which in turn allowed Port Hills to take the entire Banks Peninsula from Selwyn. Port Hills subsequently returned to its pre-2008 name of Banks Peninsula. Clutha-Southland lost the Tuatapere-Te Waewae area to Invercargill and Balclutha, Milton and the lower Clutha Valley to Dunedin South, while gaining Alexandra, Clyde and the Clutha Valley upstream of Beaumont from Waitaki. Waitaki in turn took the Palmerston area from Dunedin North, allowing Dunedin North to take the Otago Peninsula from Dunedin South. The Otago-Southland boundary changes saw three electorates change names: Clutha-Southland to Southland, Dunedin North to Dunedin, and Dunedin South to Taieri. In the Tasman region, the town of Brightwater moved from Nelson to West Coast-Tasman to bring the latter electorate within quota.
Two electorates had name changes to correct their spelling. Rimutaka was renamed in line with its namesake, the Remutaka Range, which was renamed in 2017 as part of a Treaty of Waitangi settlement. The electorate was renamed by adding a macron to the second letter A.

Election date and timeline

Unless an early election is called or the election date is set to circumvent holding a by-election, a general election is held every three years. The most recent election was held on 23 September 2017.
The governor-general must issue writs for an election within seven days of the expiration or dissolution of the current parliament. Under section 17 of the Constitution Act 1986, parliament expires three years "from the day fixed for the return of the writs issued for the last preceding general election of members of the House of Representatives, and no longer." The writs for the 2017 election were returned on 12 October 2017. As a result, the 52nd Parliament must dissolve no later than 12 October 2020. Consequently, the last day for issuance of writs of election is 19 October 2020. The writs must be returned within 50 days of their issuance, which would be 7 December 2020. Because polling day must be on a Saturday, and two weeks is generally required for the counting of special votes, the last possible date for the next general election is 21 November 2020.
The Electoral Amendment Act 2020, which came into force on 11 March 2020, extended the writ period to 60 days. This means that the last day for the return of the writs would be extended to 17 December 2020, and the last possible date of the election would be extended to 28 November 2020.
On 28 January 2020, Ardern announced that the election will be held on 19 September, with the parliament holding its last sitting day on 6 August and dissolving on 12 August. The writ date for the election is 16 August, and political parties must be registered by this day to contest the party vote.
The date of 19 September was announced before the COVID-19 pandemic had reached New Zealand. In April 2020, the National Party doubted that the public would be ready for an election in September, and New Zealand First leader Winston Peters called for the election to be delayed to 21 November. In May 2020, Ardern said she did not intend to change the date of the election and Chief Electoral Officer Alicia Wright said that the Electoral Commission was working to the dates originally set by the Prime Minister.
The tentative timetable for the general election is as follows:
28 January 2020 Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announces the general election will be held on 19 September
19 June 2020 The regulated election advertising period begins.
6 July 2020 Electoral Commission begins enrolment update campaign.
18 July 2020 Election hoardings may be erected.
12 August 2020 The 52nd Parliament is dissolved.
16 August 2020 Writ day – Governor-General issues formal direction to the Electoral Commission to hold the election.
Last day to ordinarily enrol to vote
Official campaigning begins; radio and television advertising begins
20 August 2020 Deadline for registered parties to lodge bulk nominations of candidates and party lists.
21 August 2020 Deadline for individual candidates to lodge nominations.
2 September 2020 Overseas voting begins
5 September 2020 Advance voting begins
18 September 2020 Advance and overseas voting ends.
Last day to enrol to vote.
The regulated election advertising period ends; all election advertising must be taken down by 23:59.
19 September 2020 Election day – polling places open 09:00 to 19:00.
People may enrol in-person at polling places.
Preliminary election results released progressively after 19:00
2 October 2020 Preliminary referendum results released
9 October 2020 Official election and referendum results declared
12 October 2020 Writ for election returned; official declaration of elected members

Potential parties and candidates

Political parties registered with the Electoral Commission can contest the general election as a party. To register, parties must have at least 500 financial members, an auditor, and an appropriate party name. A registered party may submit a party list to contest the party vote, and can have a party campaign expenses limit in addition to limits on individual candidates' campaigns. Unregistered parties and independents can contest the electorate vote only.
Since the 2017 general election, three parties have formally been de-registered. On 14 November 2017, United Future leader Damian Light announced that his party would be dissolved, and thus not contest any future elections. The Ban 1080 Party was deregistered on 28 February 2018 at the party's request. The Internet Party was deregistered on 12 June 2018 because its membership had dropped below the 500 required for registration.
The Opportunities Party announced on 9 July 2018 that the party was to be deregistered following its board's decision to not contest any future elections. The decision was reversed on 20 August 2018 reportedly due to an influx of supporters asking the party to continue.
The Mana Party remains registered, but has not applied for a broadcasting allocation, and has endorsed and offered its resources to the Māori Party.
, the following parties are registered to contest the general election:

MPs not standing for re-election

MPs standing for re-election as List-only MPs

Campaigning

Expense limits and broadcasting allocations

During the three-month regulated period prior to election day, parties and candidates have limits on how much they may spend on election campaigning. It is illegal in New Zealand to campaign on election day itself, or within 10 metres of an advance polling booth.
The limits on electoral expenses are updated every year to reflect inflation. For the 2020 general election, every registered party contending the party vote is permitted to spend $1,169,000 plus $27,500 per electorate candidate on campaigning during the regulated period, excluding radio and television campaigning. For example, a registered party with candidates in all 72 electorates is permitted to spend $3,149,000 on campaigning for the party vote. Electorate candidates are permitted to spend $27,500 each on campaigning for the electorate vote.
Registered parties are allocated a separate broadcasting budget for radio and television campaigning. Only money from the broadcasting allocation can be used to purchase airtime; the actual production costs of advertisements can come from the general election expenses budget. The Electoral Commission sets the amount of broadcasting funds each party gets; generally the allocation is based on the number of seats in the current Parliament, previous election results, and support in opinion polls.
A joint statement was released on 9 June 2020 by the Social Credit Party, Māori Party, New Conservative Party, New Zealand Outdoors Party, and Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party in which they condemn the broadcasting allocations and call for reform.
An initial broadcasting statement was released from the Electoral Commission on 29 May 2020, including parties that have not yet registered but intend to.
Third party promoters, such as trade unions and lobby groups, can campaign during the regulated period. The maximum expense limit for the 2019/20 fiscal year is $330,000 for those promoters registered with the Electoral Commission, and $13,200 for unregistered promoters., the following third-party promoters were registered for the general election.
After the announcement of 19 September as election date, parties started their campaigns.

National

was initially chosen as campaign manager. This is the first election since 2005 that National has not had Steven Joyce as campaign manager. On 2 February 2020, Simon Bridges announced that National would not want to form a coalition with New Zealand First after the election should they become kingmaker once again, saying "I can't trust New Zealand First", adding that "A vote for NZ First is a vote for Labour and the Greens". Bridges said that he would, however, be open to working with ACT. NZ First leader Winston Peters criticised the decision, saying that "narrowing your options can be the worst strategic move you will ever make".
Owing to the four-week lockdown placed on New Zealand on 23 March during its coronavirus outbreak National temporarily suspended their campaign on the same day.
Simon Bridges and Paula Bennett were replaced by Todd Muller and Nikki Kaye as leader and deputy leader respectively on 22 May 2020 after a leadership election held due to low poll results for National in the week prior. In his first speech as leader, Muller expressed openness of working with Winston Peters and New Zealand First after the election. In conjunction with a reshuffle of caucus responsibilities on 25 May, Muller announced that the party had replaced Bennett as campaign manager with Gerry Brownlee. On 14 July, Muller resigned as National Party leader.. He was replaced later that night by Judith Collins after an emergency party caucus meeting.

Labour

was chosen as campaign manager. On 29 January 2020, Ardern announced the New Zealand Upgrade Programme, a NZ$12 billion infrastructure improvement package.

NZ First

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters named the provincial growth fund in its current form as his first bottom line for any post-election coalition talks. Peters also outlined the party's immigration policy ahead of the election, saying: "The current immigration track must stop and only New Zealand First, with a stronger hand in 2020, can make this happen", and "a vote for New Zealand First will see the permanent residency qualification raised from two to five years". Peters also said the party wanted to lead a public discussion with voters about a "population policy", including defining acceptable population growth and the time for a migrant to obtain permanent residency. At the campaign launch on 19 July 2020, Peters promised a cap of 15,000 highly skilled immigrants and recruiting 1,000 new police officers.

Green

On 28 June 2020, the Green Party released a Poverty Action Plan, which included a guaranteed minimum income of $325 a week. Green co-leader Marama Davidson stated that “Our Guaranteed Minimum Income is about fairness. It’s about ensuring those who have done well under our current system pay it forward and share that success with people who are struggling." This was followed up by the launch of a Clean Energy Plan, to ensure a "just transition away from fossil fuels". The plan included a pledge to establish a Clean Energy Industry Training Plan and to end coal use in New Zealand by 2030. The Green Party launched a 52-page "Think Ahead, Act Now" election platform on 25 July 2020. Green co-leader James Shaw described it as "a reference document that will guide our caucus and our ministers as we navigate the everyday choices that our Government will have to make."

ACT

ACT launched their party campaign on 12 July 2020. ACT party leader David Seymour attacked the government's COVID-19 response as "clearly, demonstrably unsustainable", and called for the open pursuing of "having the world’s smartest border, not as a rhetorical device, but a practical reality." The party also unveiled a new employment insurance scheme, with 0.55% of income tax being paid to a ring-fenced insurance fund. If someone became unemployed, they would be able to 55% of their average weekly earnings over the year up to $60,000.

Māori

The Māori Party launched their campaign on 20 June 2020 at the Hoani Waititi marae, with a flagship "Whānau First" policy, ensuring that a quarter of government spending over the next two years is spent on projects led by Māori and involving Māori-led businesses. Māori Party co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer was quoted as saying that "Māori must be guaranteed resources for Māori recovery, we cannot go backwards to how we were living pre-COVID – that is not an option for our whānau, too many of whom are struggling just to survive". On 19 July 2020, the party released a climate change policy, involving an end to new offshore oil and gas permits, as well as withdrawing existing onshore and offshore permits with the goal of ending the oil and gas industry by 2030. The party would also ban new seabed mining permits and withdraw existing permits, as well as establish a $1 billion Pūngao Auaha for "Māori-owned community energy projects and solar panel and insulation instillations".

Advance NZ

Advance NZ launched their campaign on 26 July 2020, merging with the New Zealand Public Party, a party described as "conspiracy theory-driven". The Public Party is to keep their identity and structure, but with the exception of Billy Te Kahika in, who is running on the Public Party name, all candidates will run as Advance NZ candidates. Jami-Lee Ross, MP for and Te Kahika are to become co-leaders of Advance NZ. Ross stated in regards to the merger that "By forming an alliance of parties, together with other small parties that believe in greater freedom and democracy, we stand a stronger chance of uniting together and crossing the 5 percent threshold in to Parliament," and branded Advance NZ "the new Alliance Party of the 2020s, but a centrist version of that model". At the launch, Te Kahika promised an immediate repeal of the COVID-19 Health Response Bill. Ross also reportedly told the NZ Herald that the party was in talks with six smaller parties about joining Advance NZ.

Opinion polls

Various organisations have commissioned opinion polling for the next general election. Two main polling organisations are currently regularly sampling the electorates' opinions: Reid Research and Colmar Brunton. Roy Morgan Research released a series of polls in June 2020, covering the first five months of the year, and subsequently released a further poll covering the month of June. These were their first opinion polls in New Zealand since November 2017.

Seat projections

Results

Preliminary results will be gradually released after polling booths closed at 19:00 on 19 September. The preliminary count only includes advance ordinary and election day ordinary votes; it does not include any special votes. Special votes include votes from those who enrolled after the deadline of 16 August, those who voted outside their electorate, hospital votes, and those voters enrolled on the unpublished roll. There will not be an election night preliminary count for the two referendums.
All voting papers, counterfoils and electoral rolls are returned to the electorate's returning officer for a mandatory recount; this also includes approving and counting any special votes, and compiling a master roll to ensure no voter has voted more than once. To simplify processing and counting, overseas votes will be sent to and counted at the Electoral Commission's central processing centre in Wellington, rather than to electorate returning officers. Official results, including all recounted ordinary votes and special votes, as well as the official results of the two referendums, are expected to be released by the Electoral Commission on Saturday 9 October 2020.
Parties and candidates have three working days after the release of the official results to apply for a judicial recount. These recounts take place under the auspices of a District Court judge, and may delay the return of the election writ by a few days.