Hurricane Rafael
Hurricane Rafael produced minor damage in the northeastern Caribbean Sea in mid-October 2012. The seventeenth named storm and ninth hurricane of the annual hurricane season, Rafael originated from a tropical wave roughly 230 mi south-southeast of Saint Croix on October 12; because the system already contained tropical storm-force winds, it skipped tropical depression status. Though initially disorganized due to moderate wind shear, a subsequent decrease allowed for shower and thunderstorm activity to develop in earnest by October 14. While moving north-northwestward the following morning, Rafael intensified into a Category 1 hurricane. A cold front off the East Coast of the United States caused the system to turn northward and eventually northeastward by October 16, at which time Rafael attained its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph. As the cyclone entered a more stable atmosphere and tracked across increasingly cooler sea surface temperatures, it began extratropical transition, a process the system completed by the following afternoon.
As a disorganized tropical cyclone in the northeastern Caribbean, Rafael produced major flooding across the region. As much as a foot of rain fell across portions of the Lesser Antilles, causing mudslides, landslides, and river flooding. In addition, the heavy rains led to significant crop loss. Sustained winds near hurricane force were recorded on Saint Martin, while tropical storm-force gusts occurred widespread. Lightning activity as a result of heavy thunderstorms caused many fires and power outages. One fatality occurred when a woman in Guadeloupe unsuccessfully attempted to drive her car across a flooded roadway. As Rafael passed just to the east of Bermuda as a hurricane, light rainfall was recorded. Gusts over 50 mph left hundreds of houses without electricity. Large swells from the system caused significant damage to the coastline of Nova Scotia, while many roads were washed away or obscured with debris, but overall, damage was minimal.
Meteorological history
The formation of Hurricane Rafael is attributed to a low-latitude tropical wave that emerged off the western coast of Africa on October 5. The wave remained disorganized until roughly midway between the Cape Verde Islands and Lesser Antilles, at which time a broad area of low pressure developed and convection began to consolidate around it. As a result, the disturbance was introduced into the National Hurricane Center 's 48-hour Tropical Weather Outlook with a low chance of tropical development. These chances were subsequently raised as further development occurred, with the system receiving a medium chance of development early on October 10, and a high chance of development as it approached the southern Leeward Islands late the following evening. As the wave crossed into the eastern Caribbean Sea and slowed down, the previously broad and open surface low consolidated and became stacked with the mid-level center. The disturbance was already producing tropical storm-force winds, and as a result, skipped tropical depression status to become Tropical Storm Rafael at 1800 UTC on October 12. At this time, the cyclone was located roughly 200 mi south-southeast of St. Croix.Despite being named, Rafael remained disorganized initially; this was the result of the interaction between an upper-level trough and the cyclone itself. Moderate to strong wind shear dislocated the center of Rafael and the deepest shower and thunderstorm activity. Over the course of the next few days, however, the upper-level trough gradually weakened and backed westward, allowing for the development of an anticyclone atop the tropical storm. Wind shear lessened, allowing the center to become obscured from view and outflow to develop in association with the system. As it began to execute a turn towards the north under the influence of an upper-level trough to its west, a central dense overcast was noted on satellite imagery. Following a series of intensity estimates, Rafael was upgraded to a hurricane around 0600 UTC on October 15, while positioned about 650 mi south of Bermuda, although this intensity was speculated upon until later that afternoon following a hurricane hunters flight into the system.
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As Rafael moved northward, it continued to intensify rapidly in spite of moderate wind shear. An eye became visible on microwave imagery during the morning hours of October 16, during which time the cyclone attained its peak intensity as a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and a minimum barometric pressure of 969 mb. By the afternoon hours of that same day, data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicated that Rafael was on the verge of a weakening trend, attributed to decreasing sea surface temperatures and higher wind shear. Though the system retained hurricane-force winds, it began to transition into an extratropical cyclone on October 17, a process it completed by 1800 UTC that same day after interacting with a cold front; at the time of the transition, Rafael was positioned well southwest of Nova Scotia. The remnants of the cyclone looped around a larger extratropical low, over the north-central Atlantic Ocean for several days, before resuming its eastward motion. The extratropical remnant of Rafael later made landfall on Portugal and dissipated by 1800 UTC on October 26.
Preparations and impact
Caribbean islands
Shortly after the development of Rafael, a tropical storm watch was issued for the island of Puerto Rico; tropical storm warnings were issued for surrounding locations, including the British and U.S. Virgin Islands. By the morning hours of October 13, the warnings were discontinued for Saint Lucia and Martinique, but issued for Culebra and Vieques. The warnings were discontinued for Guadeloupe and Saint Martin by the pre-dawn hours of the following morning as Rafael pulled away, and expired for the remaining northeastern Caribbean Islands several hours later. In preparation for the system, the Virgin Islands Territorial Management Angecy activated several emergency operation centers across the region, and requested assistance from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, who deployed a team of workers to cover the aftermath of Rafael. The departments of public works and power authority placed emergency crews on standby, while all ports out of the U.S. Virgin Islands were open to outbound vessel traffic only; the Coast Guard advised mariners to prepare for impending severe weather.As a tropical storm, Rafael hit Guadeloupe with large amounts of rain, causing significant damage to homes and especially crops. According to Météo-France, up to fell in 3 hours in the prefecture of Basse-Terre, and up to in 48 hours between October 13 and 14; an estimated fell during that same timeframe in Grande-Terre. Flooding and mudslides as a result of the heavy rain damaged 60 to 80% of the vegetable crops in Grande-Terre, and lightning as a result of strong storms sparked fires and led to power outages. Sustained winds of and gusts reaching occurred in Raizet; gusts reached in La Désirade. A woman was killed in Matouba, part of Saint-Claude, after attempting to drive her car across a flooded roadway; she was swept away. Heavy rains in St. Kitts, amounting to in a 30‑hour span, caused significant flooding and mudslides, especially around Basseterre. Traffic across the area was paralyzed as roads became impassable, and most businesses were closed for the duration of the storm. Many residents lost power and water supply as well. A few people attempted to drive through flooded roads and required rescue. Numerous weather stations in the French islands of Saint Barthélémy and Saint Martin recorded gusts of and, respectively. Although several boats were grounded, overall damage remained fairly minor in the French territories. Road 2 between Manati, Puerto Rico and Vega Baja, Puerto Rico was flooded; several houses were also flooded at Toa Alta High.