Muslim population growth


Muslim population growth is the population growth of Muslims worldwide. In 2010-2015, the expected Muslim growth rate was 1.8%. This compares with average world population growth rate of 1.2% per year for the referenced period. As of 2015, it was predicted that the world's Muslim population would grow twice as fast as the overall global population in the following decades. Young median age and high fertility rate of Muslims relative to other religious groups are significant factors behind Islam's population growth; As of 2015, the Muslim fertility rate for all 49 Muslim-majority countries is 2.9—well above the global rate—but down from 4.3 in 1990-1995. According to Pew Research, there is a lack of reliable data however religious conversion might have no net impact on the Muslim population as the number of people who convert to Islam is thought to be similar to those who leave Islam.

By region

World

is currently the largest religion in Asia. According to the Pew Research Center, 27.3% of the people living in the Asia-Pacific region in 2030 will be Muslim, up from about a quarter in 2010 and 21.6% in 1990.

India

Islam is the fastest-growing religion in India. Growth rate of Muslims has been consistently higher than the growth rate of Hindus, ever since the census data of independent India has been available. For example, during the 1991-2001 decade, Muslim growth rate was 29.5%. However, Muslims population growth rate declined to 24.6% during 2001-2011 decade, in keeping with the similar decline in most religious groups of India.
In India regarding attitudes "toward birth control," younger Muslim women are less likely to favor it than are older. Regarding "knowledge of birth control," younger Muslim women know less than do older. "Muslim marriages take place earlier" than other religions, and younger Muslim women are more likely to want to have "many children" than are older.
According to Paul Kurtz, Muslims in India are much more resistant to modern contraceptive measures compared to other Indians and, as a consequence, the fertility rate among non-Muslim women is much lower compared to that of Muslim women.
Islam is the second-largest religion in India, making up 14.2% of the country's population with about 172 million adherents. In 2010, India had the second largest population of Muslims, after Indonesia and ahead of Pakistan.

China

In China, Muslim population growth has been estimated to be as much as 2.7% from 1964–1982, however the Pew Research Center projects a slowing down of Muslim population growth in China due to the harsh treatment towards Muslims in China such as the in Xinjiang and due partly to the fact that many Hui Muslims are ordered by the government to limit themselves to one child in China. By contrast, China's Christian population growth has been estimated at 4.7% based on total population figures from the year 1949. The number of permitted births in China varies between one and three children depending on geographic area. Chinese family planning policy allows minorities, including Muslims, to have up to two children in urban areas, and three to four children in rural areas.

Europe

Islam is the fastest-growing religion in Europe. According to the Pew Research Center, the Muslim population in Europe was about 30 million in 1990, 44 million in 2010 and is expected to increase to 58 million by 2030; the Muslim share of the population increased from 4.1% in 1990 to 6% in 2010 and is expected to reach 8% in 2030. In recent years, "Europe has experienced a record influx of asylum seekers fleeing from Syria and predominantly Muslim countries" due to various conflicts in its country. And, the wave of Muslim migrants has caused debates about immigration and security policies and raised questions about the current and future number of Muslims in Europe. There were approximately 19 million Muslims in the European Union in 2010 or about.
Data for the rates of growth of Islam in Europe reveal that the growing number of Muslims is due primarily to immigration. Additionally, average Muslims today are younger and have a higher fertility than other Europeans. Between the mid-2010 and mid-2016, migration was the biggest factor driving the growth of Muslim populations in Europe. Approximately, 2.5 million Muslims came to Europe for reasons other than employment and education. And, more than 1.3 million Muslims received and are expected to receive refugee status, allowing them to stay in Europe.
In 2016, the median age of Muslims throughout Europe was 30.4, 13 years younger than the median age of other Europeans. 50% of all European Muslims are younger than 30, however, only 32% of non-Muslims in Europe were under the age of 30. While the birth rate for Muslims in Europe is expected to decline over the next two decades, it will remain slightly higher than in the non-Muslim population.
Pew Research Center has provided three different projections regarding the expected future migration levels. Even in the zero migration scenario, the Muslim population is expected to rise from 3.8% to 4.9% by 2050. In medium and high migration scenario, it assumes the Muslims to reach 11.2% and 14% respectively. On the other hand, the non-Muslim population is expected to decrease in all three scenarios.

France

In France there are an estimated 100,000 Muslim converts, compared with about 50,000 in 1986. The population mostly originate from the Maghreb, and, France is home to a third of EU Muslims. As of mid-2016, there are 5.7 million Muslims in France and the Muslim population continues to grow.

Germany

In Germany, there are approximately 5 million Muslims, and at least 2.3 million trace their origin to Turkey. The “guest worker program” and the domination of Turkish religious authorities have increased German Islam. A report from Pew found "Germany as the top destination for Muslim migrants between 2010 and 2016".

United Kingdom

The United Kingdom is home to 1.5 to 2 million Muslims and has the highest number of Muslim migrants. Most originate from South Asia, particularly Pakistan.

Italy

The presence of Muslims in Italy is fairly new. There are approximately 1 million Muslims and most come from Morocco and Albania.

By denomination

The following table lists historical growth rates by schools and branches in Islam as published by the previous two editions of the World Christian Encyclopedia.
Branches/SchoolsGrowth rate in 1982Growth rate in 2001
Sunni
--
Hanafi2.82.1
Shafi2.92.2
Maliki2.42.0
Hanbali2.72.2
Shia--
Twelver2.82.2
Isma'ili3.42.7
Zaydi2.82.3
Alawites2.84.2
Khariji2.72.1
Wahhabi-1.4

Conversion

In its 2015 report, the Pew Research Center said that the "bulging youth populations are among the reasons that Muslims are projected to grow faster than the world's overall population". Only 0.3% of the expected Muslim population growth in the period of 2010–2050 would be due to conversions; 99.7% would be due to a high birth rate among Muslims. Another Pew Research Center study in 2017 projected that only 0.3% of the Muslim population growth in the period of 2010–2015 will be due to conversions, while 99.7% will be due natural increase. According to The New York Times, an estimated 25% of American Muslims are converts.
In Britain, around 6,000 people convert to Islam per year and according to a June 2000 article in the British Muslims Monthly Survey the bulk of new Muslim converts in Britain were women. According to The Huffington Post, "observers estimate that as many as 20,000 Americans convert to Islam annually."
According to Pew Research, the number of U.S. converts to Islam is roughly equal to the number of U.S. Muslims who leave the religion. 77% of new converts to Islam are from Christianity, whereas 19% were from non-religion. Whereas, 55% of Muslims who left Islam went to non-religion, and 22% converted to Christianity.
Darren E. Sherkat questioned in Foreign Affairs whether some of the Muslim growth projections are accurate as they do not take into account the increasing number of non-religious Muslims. Quantitative research is lacking, but he believes the European trend mirrors the American: data from the General Social Survey in the United States show that 32 percent of those raised Muslim no longer embrace Islam in adulthood, and 18 percent hold no religious identification.
Studies estimate significantly more people have converted from Islam to Christianity in the 21st century than at any other point in Islamic history. A 2015 study found that up to 10.2 million Muslim converted to Christianity. The increasingly large ex-Muslim communities in the Western world that adhere to no religion have also been well documented.