Nationwide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election


This page lists nationwide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the 2016 United States presidential election. The two major party candidates were chosen at the Democratic National Convention and Republican National Convention in July 2016.
Donald Trump won the general election of Tuesday, November 8, 2016, despite losing the popular vote while winning the electoral college. Most polls correctly predicted a popular vote victory for Clinton, but overestimated the size of her lead, with the result that Trump's electoral college victory was a surprise to analysts. Retrospective analyses differ as to why the polls and commentators interpreting them were unable to correctly forecast the result of the election. Two daily tracking polls, the UPI/CVoter poll and the University of Southern California/Los Angeles Times poll were the only polls that often incorrectly predicted a Trump popular vote victory or showed a nearly tied election.

Aggregate polls

Poll numbers verified as of 2016.

Individual polls

Two-way race

After convention nominations

Polls conducted in 2016

Polls conducted in 2015

Polls conducted in 2014

Polls conducted in 2013

Three-way race

Poll sourceDateDemocratic candidate%Republican candidate%Libertarian candidate%Lead margin

Sample size: 1,022
Margin of error: ±3%		July 31 – August 2, 2016Hillary Clinton44%Donald Trump35%Gary Johnson12%9

Sample size: 1,000
Margin of error: ±3%		July 29 – August 1, 2016Hillary Clinton45%Donald Trump40%Gary Johnson15%5

Sample size: 1,131
Margin of error: ±3%		July 29–31, 2016Hillary Clinton43%Donald Trump38%Gary Johnson10%5

Sample size: 1,931
Margin of error: ±2%		July 29–30, 2016Hillary Clinton41%Donald Trump36%Gary Johnson11%5

Sample size: 2,502
Margin of error: ±2%		July 22–24, 2016Hillary Clinton36%Donald Trump40%Gary Johnson10%4

Sample size: 1,118 adults
Margin of error ±4%		July 22–24, 2016Hillary Clinton39%Donald Trump40%Gary Johnson12%1

Sample size: 900
Margin of error: ±3.27%		July 13–18, 2016Hillary Clinton43%Donald Trump40%Gary Johnson11%3

Sample size: 2,002
Margin of error: ±2%		July 14–16, 2016Hillary Clinton38%Donald Trump35%Gary Johnson11%3

Sample size: 1,358
Margin of error: ±3%		July 8–12, 2016Hillary Clinton36%Donald Trump36%Gary Johnson12%Tied

Sample size: 2,001
Margin of error: ±2%		July 8–10, 2016Hillary Clinton39%Donald Trump37%Gary Johnson12%2

Sample size: 1,000
Margin of error: ±3%		July 5, 2016Hillary Clinton38%Donald Trump40%Gary Johnson9%2

Sample size: 2,001
Margin of error: ±2%		June 30 – July 4, 2016Hillary Clinton38%Donald Trump37%Gary Johnson11%1

Sample size: 1,017
Margin of error: ±3%		June 26–28, 2016Hillary Clinton41%Donald Trump36%Gary Johnson10%5

Sample size: 900
Margin of error: ±3.27%		June 23–28, 2016Hillary Clinton48%Donald Trump37%Gary Johnson8%11

Sample size: 1,300
Margin of error: ±3.9%		June 24–27, 2016Hillary Clinton40%Donald Trump35%Gary Johnson8%5

Sample size: 4001
Margin of error: ±2%		June 24–27, 2016Hillary Clinton39%Donald Trump36%Gary Johnson11%3

Sample size: 1,655
Margin of error: ±2.7%		June 15–26, 2016Hillary Clinton45%Donald Trump36%Gary Johnson11%9

Sample size: 3891
Margin of error: ±2%		June 15–20, 2016Hillary Clinton38%Donald Trump38%Gary Johnson10%Tied

Sample size: 1048
Margin of error: ± 3.0%		June 9–13, 2016Hillary Clinton39%Donald Trump32%Gary Johnson11%7

Sample size: 750
Margin of error: ± 3.6%		June 10–13, 2016Hillary Clinton49%Donald Trump37%Gary Johnson9%12

Sample size: 1004
Margin of error: ± 3%		June 8–9, 2016Hillary Clinton39%Donald Trump33%Gary Johnson10%6

Sample size: 1004
Margin of error: ± 3%		June 5–8, 2016Hillary Clinton39%Donald Trump36%Gary Johnson12%3

Sample size: 1000
Margin of error: ± 3%		June 6–7, 2016Hillary Clinton38%Donald Trump37%Gary Johnson8%1
rowspan="2"
Sample size: 2001
Margin of error: ± 2%		June 1–4, 2016Hillary Clinton37%Donald Trump35%Gary Johnson 10%2
Hillary ClintonJune 1–4, 201636%Donald Trump37%Gary Johnson 10%1-

Sample size: 2001
Margin of error: ± 2%		May 19–23, 2016Hillary Clinton38%Donald Trump35%Gary Johnson10%3

Sample size: 1,021
Margin of error: ± 3.0%		May 14–17, 2016Hillary Clinton39%Donald Trump42%Gary Johnson10%3

Sample size: 848
Margin of error ±3.4%		March 17–20, 2016Hillary Clinton42%Donald Trump34%Gary Johnson11%8

Poll sourceDateDemocratic candidate%Republican candidate%Third candidate%Lead margin

Sample size: 823
Margin of error: ± 3.5%		May 16–19, 2016Hillary Clinton37%Donald Trump35%Mitt Romney22%2
rowspan="4"
Sample size: 1,083
Margin of error ±3.0%		March 24–26, 2016Hillary Clinton42%Donald Trump37%Deez Nuts10%5
Bernie SandersMarch 24–26, 201643%Donald Trump37%Deez Nuts8%6-
Hillary ClintonMarch 24–26, 201644%Donald Trump35%Rick Perry12%9-
Bernie SandersMarch 24–26, 201643%Donald Trump34%Rick Perry12%9-
rowspan="2"
Sample size: 1,342
Margin of error ±2.7%		February 10–15, 2016Bernie Sanders38%Donald Trump38%Michael Bloomberg12%Tied
Bernie SandersFebruary 10–15, 201639%Ted Cruz33%Michael Bloomberg14%6-

Sample size: 1,000
Margin of error ± 3%		February 11–15, 2016Bernie Sanders30%Donald Trump37%Michael Bloomberg16%7
rowspan="2"
Sample size: 1,125
Margin of error ±2.9%		February 2–4, 2016Bernie Sanders35%Donald Trump36%Michael Bloomberg15%1
Bernie SandersFebruary 2–4, 201637%Ted Cruz36%Michael Bloomberg15%1-
rowspan="2"
Sample size: 1,236
Margin of error		February 2–3, 2016Hillary Clinton41%Donald Trump37%Michael Bloomberg11%4
Bernie SandersFebruary 2–3, 201636%Donald Trump39%Michael Bloomberg13%3-
rowspan="3"
Sample size: 900
Margin of error ±3.3%		January 26–27, 2016Hillary Clinton33%Donald Trump37%Michael Bloomberg29%4
Hillary ClintonJanuary 26–27, 201637%Ted Cruz35%Michael Bloomberg28%2-
Hillary ClintonJanuary 26–27, 201635%Marco Rubio38%Michael Bloomberg28%3-
rowspan="3"
Sample size: 1,439
Margin of error ±3%		January 21–24, 2016Bernie Sanders35%Donald Trump34%Michael Bloomberg12%1
Bernie SandersJanuary 21–24, 201636%Ted Cruz28%Michael Bloomberg11%8-
Bernie SandersJanuary 21–24, 201636%Marco Rubio29%Michael Bloomberg10%7-
rowspan="3"
Sample size: 4,060
Margin of error ±2%		January 14–17, 2016Hillary Clinton38%Ted Cruz34%Michael Bloomberg11%4
Hillary ClintonJanuary 14–17, 201638%Marco Rubio33%Michael Bloomberg10%5-
Hillary ClintonJanuary 14–17, 201636%Donald Trump37%Michael Bloomberg13%1-
rowspan="5" November 29 – December 3, 2015Hillary Clinton45.4%Ted Cruz19.9%Donald Trump26.1%19.3
Hillary ClintonNovember 29 – December 3, 201544.8%Carly Fiorina14.9%Donald Trump29.6%15.2-
Hillary ClintonNovember 29 – December 3, 201544.0%Ben Carson20.1%Donald Trump25.7%18.3-
Hillary ClintonNovember 29 – December 3, 201543.3%Marco Rubio21.8%Donald Trump25.9%17.4-
Hillary ClintonNovember 29 – December 3, 201543.3%Jeb Bush19.6%Donald Trump29.5%13.8-
rowspan="5"

Margin of error ±6.0%
Sample size: 1005		October 17–22, 2015Hillary Clinton42.7%Jeb Bush22.8%Donald Trump24.2%18.5
Hillary ClintonOctober 17–22, 201543.7%Carly Fiorina22.6%Donald Trump23.8%19.9-
Hillary ClintonOctober 17–22, 201543.1%Ben Carson27.9%Donald Trump20.2%15.2-
Hillary ClintonOctober 17–22, 201543.7%Marco Rubio24.6%Donald Trump22.9%19.1-
Hillary ClintonOctober 17–22, 201544.9%Ted Cruz18.6%Donald Trump24.1%20.8-

Margin of error: ±2.8%
Sample size: 1254		August 28–30, 2015Hillary Clinton42%Jeb Bush23%Donald Trump27%15
rowspan="3"

Sample size: 1008		August 11–13, 2015Hillary Clinton42%Carly Fiorina24%Donald Trump25%17
Hillary ClintonAugust 11–13, 201542%Marco Rubio30%Donald Trump22%12-
Hillary ClintonAugust 11–13, 201542%Jeb Bush29%Donald Trump23%13-

Margin of error: ±2.8%
Sample size: 964		July 22–28, 2015Hillary Clinton44%Jeb Bush29%Donald Trump20%15

Margin of error: ±4.0%
Sample size: 1,087		July 20–21, 2015Hillary Clinton43%Jeb Bush25%Donald Trump23%18

Margin of error: ±4.0%
Sample size: 815		July 16–19, 2015Hillary Clinton47%Jeb Bush30%Donald Trump20%17

Four-way race

Poll sourceDateHillary Clinton
Donald Trump
Gary Johnson
Jill Stein
Leading by
Sample
size		Margin
of error
November 4–7, 201645%41%5%2%43,677± 1.7%
November 4–7, 201649%45%4%1%4940± 3.2%
November 4–6, 201644%41%4%2%3799± 3.5%
November 3–6, 201647%43%3%2%416,639± 0.8%
November 3–6, 201647%43%4%1%42,220± 2.5%
November 3–6, 201648%44%3%2%41,295± 2.5%
November 3–6, 201641%43%6%2%21,026± 3.1%
November 3–6, 201650%44%4%1%6802± 3.6%
November 2–6, 201642%39%6%3%32,195± 2.4%
November 2–6, 201645%41%5%2%41,426± 3.0%
November 2–6, 201645%43%4%2%21,500± 2.5%
October 31– November 6, 201647%41%6%3%670,194± 1.0%
November 4–5, 201645%42%8%2%31,482± 3.0%
November 3–5, 201644%40%6%2%41,282± 2.73%
November 2–5, 201647%43%4%2%41,937± 2.5%
November 2–5, 201643%44%5%2%1903± 3.3%
November 1–5, 201648%44%4%2%41,009± 3.1%
November 1–4, 201648%43%4%2%51,685± 2.5%
November 1–4, 201644%44%5%2%Tied804± 3.5%
October 31 – November 4, 201643%39%6%2%42,244± 2.4%
November 1–3, 201644%44%4%1%Tied1,500± 2.5%
November 1–3, 201645%43%5%2%21,107± 3.0%
November 1–3, 201644%43%6%2%1940± 3.2%
October 30 – November 3, 201644%44%4%2%Tied898± 3.3%
October 31 – November 3, 201647%43%4%2%41,419± 3.0%
October 30 – November 3, 201644%37%6%2%72,021± 2.6%
November 1–2, 201647%45%3%1%22,435± 2.0%
October 31 – November 2, 201642%45%4%1%31,500± 2.5%
October 30 – November 2, 201647%44%3%2%31,151± 3.0%
October 29 – November 2, 201644%44%4%2%Tied867± 3.4%
October 29 – November 2, 201645%37%5%2%81,858± 2.6%
October 30 – November 1, 201644%44%5%2%Tied1,500± 2.5%
October 30 – November 1, 201646%43%4%2%31,233± 3.2%
October 29 – November 1, 201647%45%3%2%21,167± 3.0%
October 28 – November 1, 201645%42%5%4%3862± 3.4%
October 28 – November 1, 201655%47%5%2%81,772± 3.0%
October 27 – November 1, 201644%44%4%2%Tied862± 3.4%
October 28–31, 201646%46%3%2%Tied1,167± 3.0%
October 27–31, 201645%45%5%2%Tied1,500± 2.5%
October 26–31, 201645%44%4%2%11,018± 3.2%
October 29–30, 201642%39%7%5%31,772±2.0%
October 27–30, 201645%46%3%2%11,167± 3.0%
October 26–30, 201643%37%6%1%61,264± 3.0%
October 26–30, 201645%42%5%2%31,500± 2.5%
October 25–30, 201645%44%4%2%1993± 3.2%
October 24–30, 201647%41%6%3%640,816±1.0%
October 26–29, 201646%45%4%2%11,165± 3.0%
October 24–29, 201644%42%6%2%21,039± 3.3%
October 27–28, 201637%37%6%2%Tied943± 3.7%
October 27–28, 201642%39%8%4%31,794± 2.0%
October 25–28, 201646%45%4%2%11,160± 3.0%
October 23–28, 201645%41%7%2%41,013± 3.3%
October 25–27, 201645%45%3%2%Tied1,500±2.5%
October 24–27, 201647%45%4%2%21,148±3.0%
October 22–27, 201644%41%7%2%3973± 3.3%
October 25–26, 201646%45%3%1%11,824±2.3%
October 24–26, 201645%44%4%1%11,500±2.5%
October 23–26, 201648%44%4%1%41,150±3.0%
October 22–26, 201646%41%4%2%51,376±3.1%
October 22–26, 201645%34%6%2%111,050±%
October 21–26, 201643%41%8%2%2945± 3.3%
October 23–25, 201644%43%4%1%11,500±2.5%
October 22–25, 201644%41%7%3%31,221±2.5%
October 22–25, 201648%42%5%1%61,135±3.0%
October 20–25, 201646%40%6%3%62,120± 2.4%
October 20–25, 201642%41%8%3%1921± 3.3%
October 21–24, 201643%34%7%2%9804± 3.5%
October 21–24, 201649%40%5%2%91,119±3.0%
October 21–24, 201650%38%5%2%12900± 3.27%
October 20–24, 201651%37%6%2%141,546± 2.75%
October 20–24, 201647%38%4%2%91,000±3.0%
October 20–24, 201642%38%7%2%41,170±3.3%
October 20–24, 201643%42%5%2%11,500±2.5%
October 19–24, 201642%41%8%3%1873± 3.6%
October 20–23, 201650%38%5%2%121,155±3.0%
October 20–23, 201649%44%3%2%5779±3.5%
October 19–23, 201641%43%5%3%21,500±2.5%
October 18–23, 201641%41%7%3%Tied815± 3.6%
October 18–23, 201645%40%6%1%5569±4.1%
October 17–23, 201646%41%7%3%532,225± 1.0%
October 20–22, 201650%38%5%2%121,391±3.5%
October 17–22, 201641%43%7%3%2783± 3.6%
October 16–21, 201640%42%7%4%2791±3.6%
October 19–20, 201642%36%9%4%61,395±3.0%
October 18–20, 201641%43%5%3%21,500±2.5%
October 14–20, 201643%39%6%2%41,640±3.0%
October 17–19, 201640%43%6%3%31,500±2.5%
October 14–19, 201640%41%7%5%1779±3.6%
October 17–18, 201647%40%7%1%71,007±3.1%
October 15–18, 201642%38%6%1%41,300±3.9%
October 13–18, 201640%41%8%6%1782±3.6%
October 15–17, 201645%39%5%3%6912±3.0%
October 14–17, 201647%38%8%3%91,006±3.1%
October 13–17, 201642%41%7%2%11,500±2.5%
October 13–17, 201642%38%6%2%41,190±3.2%
October 14–16, 201650%38%5%2%12805±3.5%
October 12–16, 201647%38%8%3%91,411±3.0%
October 12–16, 201643%41%5%2%21,500±2.5%
October 10–16, 201646%40%8%4%624,804± 1.0%
October 13–15, 201642%36%10%3%61,737±2.0%
October 11–14, 201646%36%5%2%10845±3.4%
October 11–13, 201641%43%6%2%21,500±2.5%
October 10–13, 201648%37%7%2%111,000±3.1%
October 10–13, 201647%43%5%2%4740±4.0%
October 9–13, 201646%41%6%2%51,011±3.1%
October 8–13, 201647%39%8%2%81,000±3.1%
October 10–12, 201645%38%7%3%7917±3.0%
October 10–12, 201641%43%6%2%21,500±2.5%
October 10–11, 201647%41%7%3%6953±3.2%
October 9–11, 201643%39%7%2%41,500±2.5%
October 10, 201642%37%10%3%51,757±3.0%
October 8–10, 201645%36%8%2%9806±3.5%
October 6–10, 201644%39%7%2%51,500±2.5%
October 6–10, 201644%37%6%2%72,363±2.3%
September 27 – October 10, 201646%39%10%4%73,616± 2.9%
October 8–9, 201646%35%9%2%11422±4.6%
October 5–9, 201645%38%7%2%71,500±2.5%
October 5–9, 201649%38%2%0%11886±3.9%
October 3–9, 201646%41%8%3%523,329±1.0%
October 8, 201642%38%8%3%41,390±3.0%
October 7–8, 201644%38%5%1%61,300±4.3%
October 5–6, 201641%39%9%3%21,775±2.0%
October 5–6, 201645%40%6%2%51,064±3.0%
October 4–6, 201643%42%7%2%11,500±2.5%
October 3–6, 201644%42%6%2%2896±3.0%
September 30 – October 6, 201642%37%8%2%51,695±3.0%
October 3–5, 201641%43%8%3%21,500±2.5%
October 3, 201644%44%5%1%Tied1,690±2.5%
October 1–3, 201643%40%5%3%3911±3.9%
September 29 – October 3, 201642%36%8%2%61,239±3.2%
September 29 – October 3, 201642%41%9%2%11,500±2.5%
September 30 – October 2, 201642%36%9%3%61,778±2.0%
September 28 – October 2, 201645%36%11%3%9385±5.0%
September 28 – October 2, 201645%41%8%3%41,217±3.0%
September 28 – October 2, 201647%42%7%2%5N/A±N/A%
September 28 – October 2, 201643%40%8%2%31,500±2.5%
September 26 – October 2, 201646%40%9%3%626,925±1.0%
September 27–29, 201643%40%8%4%3911±3.0%
September 23–29, 201642%38%7%3%42,501±2.0%
September 26–28, 201642%41%7%2%11,500±2.5%
September 26–27, 201641%38%8%4%31,253±3.0%
September 1–27, 201649%41%4%1%82,010±2.8%
September 22–26, 201642%38%7%2%41,041±3.5%
September 22–25, 201644%43%8%2%11,115±2.9%
September 22–25, 201646%42%8%2%4729±3.6%
September 19–25, 201645%40%10%3%513,598±1.1%
September 22–24, 201638%39%9%4%11,712±2.0%
September 22–24, 201644%41%5%2%3948±3.8%
September 21–24, 201641%43%8%4%21,002±3.1%
September 19–22, 201646%44%5%1%2651±4.5%
September 18–22, 201645%43%6%2%21,017±3.1%
September 16–22, 201639%37%7%2%21,559±3.0%
September 20–21, 201639%44%8%2%51,000±3.0%
September 20, 201644%40%5%2%41,560±2.5%
September 15–20, 201645%39%10%4%6758±3.6%
September 18–19, 201640%38%7%2%2936±4.0%
September 16–19, 201643%37%9%3%6922±3.2%
September 15–19, 201642%37%5%3%51,000±3.0%
September 15–19, 201637%39%7%2%21,111±3.4%
September 15–19, 201645%39%9%2%61,251±2.5%
September 12–18, 201645%40%10%4%513,230±1.2%
September 15–16, 201642%40%8%3%21,639±2.0%
September 12–16, 201646%41%9%4%51,005±3.0%
September 11–14, 201641%40%8%3%1867±3.0%
September 12–13, 201640%42%7%2%21,000±3.0%
September 11–13, 201641%43%9%2%2800±3.4%
September 10–13, 201642%40%5%3%21,087±4.0%
September 9–13, 201642%42%8%4%Tied1,433±3.0%
September 8–13, 201641%39%13%4%2960±3.2%
September 8–12, 201639%39%8%2%Tied1,127±3.3%
August 16 – September 12, 201645%38%10%4%23,941±2.6%
September 5–11, 201642%40%11%4%216,220±1.1%
September 7–8, 201643%40%7%1%32,348±2.0%
September 6–8, 201643%41%10%3%21,710±2.0%
September 5–8, 201646%41%9%2%5642±4.5%
September 6–7, 201643%39%9%2%41,000±3.0%
September 4–6, 201640%38%7%5%21,077±4.7%
September 1–5, 201640%38%8%3%21,084±3.5%
September 1–4, 201643%45%7%2%2786±3.5%
August 31 – September 4, 201644%41%8%3%31,025±3.1%
August 29 – September 4, 201641%37%12%4%432,226±1.0%
September 1–2, 201638%36%9%4%22,001±2.0%
August 28 – September 1, 201642%40%11%3%21,000±3.1%
August 26 – September 1, 201639%39%7%2%Tied1,804±3.0%
August 26 – September 1, 201639%39%12%3%Tied861±3.4%
August 29–30, 201639%40%7%3%11,000±3.0%
August 28–30, 201641%39%9%4%21,011±3.0%
August 27–29, 201642%37%7%3%51,119±4.0%
August 25–29, 201640%38%6%2%21,404±3.0%
August 25–29, 201642%35%9%4%71,000±3.0%
August 25–28, 201643%36%8%2%7689±3.5%
August 22–28, 201641%37%11%5%424,104±1.0%
August 24–26, 201639%37%8%3%22,007±2.0%
August 22–25, 201639%36%7%3%31,154±3.0%
August 23–24, 201642%38%9%2%41,000±3.0%
August 20–24, 201639%36%7%2%31,049±2.9%
August 18–24, 201645%38%10%4%71,498±2.5%
August 22–23, 201642%41%4%1%11,493±2.5%
August 19–23, 201642%38%6%4%41,080±4.1%
August 18–22, 201641%33%7%2%81,115±3.0%
August 15–21, 201643%38%11%5%517,451±1.1%
August 16–20, 201639%36%8%4%32,001±2.0%
August 13–17, 201639%35%7%2%41,049±2.8%
August 15–16, 201641%39%9%3%21,000±3.0%
August 11–16, 201641%35%7%3%61,076±4.1%
August 9–16, 201641%37%10%4%41,567±2.8%
August 9–15, 201645%37%8%4%81,000±3.1%
August 8–14, 201643%37%11%4%615,179±1.2%
August 12–13, 201638%36%8%5%21,277±2.8%
August 11–14, 201639%33%9%4%62,001±2.0%
August 6–10, 201640%35%7%3%5974±2.9%
August 9–10, 201643%40%8%2%31,000±3.0%
August 9, 201642%37%9%3%52,832±1.8%
August 6–9, 201642%36%9%2%61,300±4.2%
August 5–8, 201644%40%9%4%4749±3.6%
August 4–7, 201645%39%2%1%61,000±3.9%
August 4–7, 201646%34%7%2%12803±3.5%
August 1–7, 201644%38%10%4%611,480±1.2%
August 4–5, 201641%33%9%5%82,001±2.0%
August 1–4, 201645%37%8%4%81,002±3.5%
July 31 – August 4, 201642%40%6%3%21,154±3.0%
July 29 – August 4, 201639%35%12%5%4851±3.4%
August 1–3, 201645%31%10%6%14983±3.1%
July 31 – August 3, 201643%34%10%5%9800±3.5%
July 30 – August 3, 201642%38%6%2%41,072±3.5%
August 1–2, 201644%40%6%3%41,000±3.0%
July 31 – August 1, 201641%36%8%4%51,300±4.0%
July 29–31, 201645%37%9%5%8894±3.5%
July 25–31, 201643%38%9%4%512,742±1.2%
July 29–30, 201646%41%6%2%51,276±2.7%
July 29, 201646%31%7%2%15956±3.2%
July 25–29, 201637%37%5%1%Tied1,788±2.4%
July 23–24, 201640%38%5%3%21,300±4.5%
July 22–24, 201639%44%9%3%5882±3.5%
July 21–24, 201646%42%1%1%4818±4.0%
July 18–24, 201639%41%10%5%212,931±1.2%
July 22, 201639%34%8%3%5909±3.3%
July 21–22, 201640%39%3%2%1912±N/A%
July 16–20, 201639%35%7%3%41,522±2.9%
July 15–17, 201640%37%5%4%31,300±4.2%
July 11–17, 201639%40%10%5%19,436±1.4%
July 14–16, 201645%43%5%1%2688±3.7%
July 13–16, 201644%41%7%2%31,007±3.1%
July 13–16, 201642%37%13%5%5872±3.5%
July 11–14, 201639%35%9%3%41,000±N/A%
July 11–14, 201642%38%8%5%41,003±3.5%
July 9–13, 201641%35%11%6%61,000±3.1%
July 9–11, 201640%37%5%2%31,300±4.2%
July 7–11, 201640%36%6%2%4837±3.3%
July 4–10, 201640%38%11%6%27,869±1.4%
July 7–9, 201641%29%9%2%12781±3.5%
July 5–9, 201640%35%10%5%51,249±3.0%
July 2–6, 201642%33%6%4%91,345±2.8%
July 2–4, 201642%37%4%3%51,300±3.9%
June 27 – July 3, 201641%38%9%5%310,072±1.3%
June 26–29, 201639%35%8%3%41,000±3.0%
June 25–29, 201642%31%5%4%111,247±2.8%
June 24–29, 201637%36%9%5%1837±3.5%
June 27–28, 201645%41%5%2%4947±3.2%
June 21–27, 201639%37%8%4%21,610±2.4%
June 20–26, 201642%36%9%5%65,818±1.8%
June 20–23, 201647%37%7%3%10836±4.0%
June 19–23, 201639%38%10%6%11,000±3.1%
June 18–22, 201643%34%6%5%91,339±2.8%
June 16–19, 201642%38%9%7%4891±3.5%
June 15–19, 201642%36%9%4%6803±3.5%
June 13–19, 201642%38%9%5%416,135±1.1%
June 11–15, 201639%29%6%4%101,323±2.8%
June 6–12, 201642%38%9%5%410,604±1.3%
June 8, 201639%36%6%4%31,408±2.7%
May 30 – June 5, 201640%34%6%2%6837±3.5%
May 30 – June 5, 201639%40%9%4%19,240±1.4%
May 24–30, 201640%38%5%3%21,561±2.5%

Five-way race

Poll sourceDateHillary Clinton
Donald Trump
Gary Johnson
Jill Stein
Evan McMullin
Leading by
Sample
size		Margin
of error
October 22–26, 201642%31%6%1%5%111,050±%
September 27–28, 201644%40%6%1%2%4933±3.2%
September 26–27, 201644%39%6%2%1%51,833–
August 26–28, 201642%37%6%4%1%5881±3.3%

Post election analysis

BBC News discussed whether polling should be abandoned due to its perceived failure. Forbes magazine contributor astrophysicist Ethan Siegel performed a scientific analysis and raised whether the statistical population sampled for the polling was inaccurate, and cited the cautionary adage "Garbage in, garbage out". He concluded there may have been sampling bias on the part of the pollsters. Siegel compared the 2016 election to the failure of prognosticator Arthur Henning in the "Dewey Defeats Truman" incident from the 1948 presidential election. Despite all this, however, nationwide polling was not far off from the actual popular vote result, and in fact very few states had results that deviated from the margin of error in the polling average. In a FiveThirtyEight article, Nate Silver defended the performance of the polls in 2016 as historically average, and argued that "Media organizations need to do a better job of informing their readers about the uncertainties associated with polling".
A particular case was the USC/Los Angeles Times Daybreak tracking poll, which was different from other polls as it had Donald Trump in the lead more often than not. The poll's findings caused skepticism, especially from Democrats, who have denounced it and often criticized the LA Times for running it. Before the election, Nate Silver deemed as positive the poll allowed people to assign themselves a probability of voting for either candidate instead of saying they're 100 percent sure and stated that if people are "going to browbeat a pollster, do it to a pollster who is doing things cheaply—some of the robopolls qualify—and not one that’s trying to move the ball forward, like the LA Times poll." The LA Times concluded after the preliminary results of the election were published: "That doesn't necessarily mean that a poll conducted online, the way the Daybreak poll is, necessarily will be more accurate than polls conducted by phone. But it is yet another indication that polling needs more, diverse ways to look at public opinion, not fewer."