Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election


Several polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament in the lead up to the 2020 New Zealand general election. Very few polls have been conducted compared to previous electoral cycles. The two regular polls are Television New Zealand, conducted by Colmar Brunton, and MediaWorks New Zealand Reid Research, with less frequent polls from Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date. The current Parliament was elected on 23 September 2017. The 2020 New Zealand general election will take place on Saturday, 19 September 2020.

Party vote and key events

Graphical summary

The first graph shows trend lines averaged across all polls for all political parties that are routinely included by polling companies. The second graph shows parties that received less than 10.0% of the party vote in the 2017 election, and are routinely included by polling companies.

Individual polls

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, both figures are shaded and displayed in bold. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to polls not reporting figures for all minor parties and due to rounding. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.
The parties shown in the table are the National Party, Labour Party, New Zealand First, Green Party, ACT, The Opportunities Party, Māori Party and New Conservative. Other parties have also registered in some polls.

UMR and Curia polls

These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally for Labour and National. Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising. Because not all of their polls are made public, it is likely that those that are released are cherry-picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends.
DatePolling organisationNATLABNZFGRNACTLead
28 Jul 2020364736311
30 Jun 20203455–––21
26 May – 1 Jun 2020305454–24
21–27 April 2020295565326
14 April 2020314969518
8 April 2020354955214
17 Feb 202038426934
2 Feb 202039417722
23 Jul 20193842–9–4
9 Nov 20183746–––9
23 Sep 20172017 election result44.436.97.26.30.57.5

Preferred Prime Minister

Some opinion pollsters ask voters who they would prefer as Prime Minister. The phrasing of questions and the treatment of refusals, as well as "don't know" answers, differ from poll to poll.

Individual polls

Government approval rating

Individual polls

Forecasts