Responses to the Venezuelan presidential crisis
During the 2019-20 Venezuelan presidential crisis concerning who is the legitimate President of Venezuela, reactions and responses to the crisis have been divided.
On 10 January 2019, Venezuela's opposition-majority National Assembly declared that incumbent Nicolás Maduro's 2018 reelection was invalid, and its president, Juan Guaidó, said that he was prepared to assume the acting presidency. On 23 January 2019, Guaidó declared that he was acting president during a rally in Caracas and took the presidential oath.
Maduro's government has accused the United States of organizing a coup d'état to remove him and take control of the country's oil reserves. Guaidó rejects the characterization of his actions as a coup, saying that his movement is backed by peaceful volunteers. Some countries and organizations have recognized Guaidó as acting president, while others have recognized Maduro; some have expressed neutrality, and some have supported the National Assembly without endorsing Guaidó.
Reactions
After Maduro's inauguration in January, United States National Security Advisor John R. Bolton, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Andrés Manuel Obrador and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro called him an illegitimate dictator.International demonstrations occurred on both sides. Hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans protested in more than 70 cities around the world in support of Guaidó, and demonstrations in support of Maduro also took place.
Governments
International
, a former foreign policy official under the Reagan and Bush administrations, was appointed the United States' Special Envoy to Venezuela: On 15 January, US President Donald Trump was reported to be deliberating whether to officially recognize Guaidó, which he did on 23 January. US Vice President Mike Pence released a video on 23 January in support of Guaidó and the people of Venezuela. The US was the first nation to recognize Guaidó after he swore an oath on the 23rd, with Trump and Pence sending their support and solidarity as well as the official recognition; other countries followed suit. In response Maduro ordered the expulsion of US diplomats, giving them 72 hours to leave Venezuela. The US said it would not close its embassy, stating their diplomatic relationship was with Guaidó's government, and holding Maduro responsible for the safety of its staff. On 26 January 2019, only hours before the deadline, the Maduro government backtracked on its expulsion order, giving US diplomats another 30 days. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo appointed Elliott Abrams as US Special Envoy to Venezuela. On 28 January, the US imposed sanctions on PDVSA. The US accounted for 41% of purchases from the company, which is the biggest input to Venezuela's economy. On 22 February—the same day as the Venezuela Aid Live concert, which Maduro said was part of an effort to topple him—Venezuela extended the deadline for US diplomats to leave by another 30 days. On 12 March, the US announced that it was withdrawing its diplomats from Caracas.
Intergovernmental organizations
: More than half of its member states, including the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Spain, said they support Guaidó; earlier, the EU issued a declaration saying it "fully supports the National Assembly as the democratically elected institution whose powers need to be restored and respected". On 4 February 19 countries of the European Union made a joint declaration supporting and recognizing Juan Guaidó as acting president of Venezuela, asking that he "summons free, just and democratic presidential elections". Italy's stance prevented this from becoming an official EU position. The EU condemned the Constituent Assembly stripping of Guaidó's parliamentary immunity, calling the action a "serious violation of the Venezuelan constitution, as well as of the rule of law and separation of power".Lima Group: On 11 and 12 January, several nations of the Lima Group released statements independent from the international body, including their nations' agreement to not recognize Maduro. The Maduro government said that these countries had "rectified" themselves to support him as president. They had not; the non-intervention statements were seen as a concession to prevent rash action by Maduro after he broadly threatened the group. Venezuelan Foreign Minister, Jorge Arreaza, gave a different statement to the vice presidential office, saying that Venezuela had received diplomatic notices from some Lima Group countries about the original dispute. Colombia's statement reiterated the group's resolution and pledged to support "the restoration of democracy and constitutional order in Venezuela", as well as saying that they did not have a position on the territorial dispute. Arreaza contradicted the statement from his vice president's office that the Lima Group recognized Maduro's government, and doubled Maduro's 48-hour demand period for non-intervention for the remaining countries after it expired. He also advocated peaceful diplomatic discussion with neighboring countries. The group—except for Mexico, which called for non-intervention in Venezuelan internal affairs—continued to back the Guaidó government, with the Foreign Minister of Chile pledging "unlimited support".
International Conference on the Situation in Venezuela: Mexico and Uruguay announced an international conference for countries with a neutral position in Montevideo on 7 February. Uruguay has since recognized Maduro as president, with foreign minister Rodolfo Nin Novoa comparing the worsening situation to the United States' rationale for the Iraq War. In April, Beatriz Becerra said that the international conference had been of no use, given that there had been no progress on the 90-day deadline for elections that the group established when it was formed; she stated that the Contact Group should be terminated and efforts should be coordinated through the Lima Group.
: The OAS approved a resolution on 10 January 2019 "to not recognize the legitimacy of Nicolas Maduro's new term". Luis Almagro, Secretary General of the OAS, recognized Guaidó on 23 January. In an extraordinary OAS session called for 24 January 16 countries including the US recognized Guaidó as president, but they did not achieve the majority needed for a resolution. Almagro held countries who remained neutral on the presidential crisis responsible for the massacre, suffering, and human rights violations in Venezuela.
: A special meeting of the Security Council was held on 26 January to discuss Venezuela; no consensus was reached. Secretary General António Guterres called for dialogue to ease tensions. Delegates from Maduro's government continued to represent Venezuela at the United Nations. On 14 February 2019, a group of UN delegates, including delegates of Venezuela and several other countries, declared they would fight what they called the "illicit, US-led effort" to change the government of Venezuela. They accused the US of "using sanctions and emergency aid as political weapons against Venezuelans". On 28 February the Security Council voted on two draft resolutions: one from the US calling for new elections in Venezuela, the entry of humanitarian aid, and the recognition of Guaidó as interim president; the other from Russia calling for dialogue between the Maduro government and the opposition in line with the Montevideo initiative of Mexico and Uruguay. Neither proposal was adopted. The US draft received majority support, but was vetoed by Russia and China. The Russian draft received four votes in favor and seven votes against.
National organizations
, president of the National Electoral Council, described Guaidó's declaration as a coup d'etat and said that his actions were carried out by a group of foreign governments, subordinated to the guidelines of the United States government that seeks to undermine Venezuela's sovereignty. She also defended the 2018 Venezuelan presidential election results, saying that "the positions of popular representation are elected by the people".The Catholic Church in Venezuela, organized by the Episcopal Conference of Venezuela, released a statement by Monsignor Ovidio Pérez Morales on 15 January 2019 saying "The Church in Venezuela, united to its Bishops in communion with the Pope, declare the socialist-communist regime illegitimate and stand in solidarity with the Venezuelan people to rescue democracy, freedom, and justice. Trusting in God, they support the National Assembly". Cardinal Porras declared: “This regime always calls for dialogue when it’s up to its neck in water but when the water level falls it forgets about it."
Members of the Constituent National Assembly stated that Guaidó's actions on 23 February solidified their support of Maduro.
Social media
Despite internet blocks in Venezuela, by midday local time, the Twitter hashtagIt was reported in the late evening that Instagram had removed the "Verified" label from Maduro's account, instead placing one on Guaidó's account; this was denied by Instagram. Guaidó's description had also been updated to include "President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela". The following day, Facebook un-verified Maduro.
In January 2019, the Associated Press said that Maduro's administration and Venezuela's state-run media sought to discredit Guaidó with video footage "to paint as a liar and a fraud". Venezuela's Communications Minister, Jorge Rodríguez, said he had proof of a meeting between Guaidó and United Socialist Party of Venezuela members, Diosdado Cabello and Freddy Bernal, in which Guaidó allegedly said he was under pressure from the United States. According to Guaidó, the meeting never happened. Rodríguez' proof came as collated short video clips. One clip shows Cabello walking through a hotel lobby, then cuts to show a man in a hooded sweatshirt entering and crossing the hall in the same direction as Cabello. The hooded man is heavily obscured and blurry, and it is impossible to identify the person.
Within minutes of Venezuela's state-run media posting the video, the hashtag #GuaidoChallenge went viral, trending worldwide. The hashtag made fun of the video posted by Rodríguez as supposed proof of this meeting. On 27 January, Guaidó held a public assembly and again challenged the Maduro administration to produce evidence of the alleged meeting. According to a translation on Caracas Chronicles, he said, "Show whatever you want, fabrications, with hoodie, without hoodie, audios. You confuse nobody here, the people see clearly."
As a protest about what they called foreign intervention, pro-Maduro social-media users used the hashtag '#HandsOffVenezuela' to share videos, pictures, and comments.
China, a supporter of Maduro, has censored information about the crisis according to Radio Free Asia. Reports from China state that Chinese citizens who criticize Maduro on social media are punished or fined, with economist He Jiangbing saying that the Chinese government is "trying to prevent another color revolution... because Venezuela and China are very similar".
Turkish pro-government media outlets criticized European countries for issuing an eight-day election ultimatum, and called the presidential crisis "a foreign-linked coup d'état." It also likened Juan Guaidó to Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt, the current president who deposed Egypt's democratically elected president Mohamed Morsi in 2013. When the French president Emmanuel Macron visited Egypt, Turkish newspapers Güneş and Sabah accused the French president of hypocritical stances on democracy for describing Maduro's re-election as "illegitimate" but then shaking hands with a leader "who massacres pro-democracy protesters" and " thousands of political prisoners in Egyptian jails." In order to add credence to the claims of European hypocrisy on the matters of democratic support, columnist İsmail Yaşa compares Maduro's re-election to el-Sisi's election, saying that Maduro's 67% of the vote proves he was democratically elected, and that since el-Sisi won his election with 97% of the vote despite a low turnout rate, election boycotts, and no real opposition, this shows it was a sham.
Recognition
Guaidó acting presidency
Foreign states
Non-UN states
Intergovernmental organizations
International organizations
Domestic organizations
Support of National Assembly, led by Guaidó
Foreign states
Non-UN states
Intergovernmental organizations
Maduro presidency
Foreign states
Non-UN states
Intergovernmental organizations
International organizations
Domestic organizations
- PDVSA
Armed groups
Vocal neutrality
Several nations called specifically for non-intervention and, without supporting either side, asked for diplomatic discussions to be held to move forward.Foreign states
Intergovernmental organizations
Public opinion
has described previous polls in Venezuela as being "notoriously controversial and divergent". The Wall Street Journal described Datanálisis as "a respected pollster in Venezuela" in March 2019.Stratfor reported Maduro lost support of working-class Venezuelans as government handouts subsided; the opposition to Maduro has proposed plans to end the economic crisis, resulting in increased support for them. The Wall Street Journal reported that barrios are turning against Maduro in "a shift born of economic misery and police violence", adding that "many blame government brutality for the shift". Pollster Datanálisis found that, among the poorest 20% of Venezuelans, Maduro's support had fallen to 18% in February 2019 from 40% two years earlier.
An April survey of 1,000 voters conducted by Hercon Consultores found that 78% of Venezuelans recognized Guaidó as interim president.
An 11–14 March 2019 survey of 1,100 people in 16 Venezuelan states and 32 cities by Meganálisis found that 89% of respondents want Maduro to leave the presidency.
A Datanálisis poll on 4 March found Guaidó approval at 61%, and Maduro's at all-time low of 14%. Guaidó would win 77% in an election to Maduro's 23%.
A 2019 Gallup poll in Colombia, published in March, showed 80% of Colombians have a favorable opinion of Guiadó, 97% have a negative opinion of Maduro, and 45% believe the United States military should intervene in Venezuela. President Iván Duque Márquez of Venezuela's neighboring Colombia was among the early supporters of Guaidó; an earlier Colombian survey of 1,008 individuals in more than 20 cities, with a margin of error of 3%, found that his popularity had surged 15 points, partly because of his position on Venezuela, and that 70% of Colombians had a favorable view of Guaidó, and 93% had a negative impression of Maduro.
Surveys between 30 January and 1 February by Meganálisis recorded that 84.6% of respondents recognized Guaidó as interim president, 11.2% were undecided and 4.1% believe that Maduro was president. The study of 1,030 Venezuelans was conducted in 16 states and 32 cities.
A telephone survey of 999 Venezuelans by Hercon from 25 to 30 January showed that 81.9% of respondents recognized Guaidó as president, 13.4% said Maduro was president and 4.6% were undecided. A Meganálisis survey of 870 Venezuelans between 24 and 25 January reported that 83.7% of respondents recognized Guaidó as the legitimate president, 11.4% could not decide who was president and 4.8% recognized Maduro as president.
A pre-23 January 2019 poll by Hinterlaces, a pollster headed by Constituent National Assembly member and described as pro-Maduro, reported that 86% of Venezuelans would oppose a military intervention by the United States and 81% disagree with violent protests.
Surveys of 900 people between 19 and 20 January by Meganálisis reported that 81.4% hoped that Guaidó would be sworn in on 23 January while 84.2% supported a transitional government to replace Maduro's government. A telephone survey of 1,000 registered voters by Venezuelan pollster Hercon, conducted from 15 to 19 January 2019, reported 79.9% of respondents agreeing with Maduro leaving the presidency. Regarding the National Assembly, 68.8% of respondents rated their work as being positive while 15.6% rated their actions as negative. When asked if they agreed with the National Assembly swearing in Guaidó as interim president, 68.6% agreed and 19.4% disagreed.
According to Datanálisis, in early 2019, 63% of Venezuelans believed that a change of government was possible. Fourteen months later, in May 2020, after the Macuto Bay raid, the percentage decreased to 20%.
Public support for Guaidó decreased following the Macuto Bay raid in May 2020, with 88.3% of respondents to a Meganálisis poll saying that they believed that Guaidó was not suited to govern Venezuela.